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May 12, 2008

Market Update: Final Countdown
by Dominick

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With the registration deadline for new retail members fast approaching, and with markets seeming to hang in limbo, TTC hasn't slowed down one bit, and continues to fire on all cylinders with real-time analysis that has many members making back their monthly dues in a single hour, even as they write off the fee as a business expense. As days go by with the bulls and bears postponing a final judgment on the fate of the economy, we haven't stopped catching juicy trades on multiple time frames and in multiple markets, including the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, euro, crude oil and gold. And, while weekly newsletters can be helpful in orienting traders generally, I've always believed the best money is made with unbiased, rolling analysis that evolves with the markets. In these uncertain times, that's what's paid off for TTC members.

A perfect example of rolling analysis is our work last week in the euro. After alerting readers weeks ago to a possible top and reversal in this currency, and catching the diagonal move into the exact top, members were advised to take profits on shorts as we approached our first target a week ago last Friday, with a tradable bounce likely to follow. As you can see in the chart below, that bounce materialized early last week.

The chart above shows where members were given a "first resistance" target to close long positions or reenter shorts. If price broke through this area and made it support, traders could reenter the long trade with a good stop and relative low risk. As it happened, the euro market responded beautifully to our proprietary analysis, reversing off resistance and declining perfectly into our diagonal target area, shown below.

But the true beauty of real time analysis is that members privy to our targets were able to scalp this fast-moving currency over and over all week. Notice the line at 1.5413 in the chart above - this level became a TMAR (take the money and run) target for quick traders who again took advantage of our rolling analysis as the euro stalled right at our expected resistance, illustrated in the chart below. There's simply no way for a weekly newsletter to provide tradable information like that.

Our proprietary targets also helped members trade the broader stock indexes, like the S&P 500 E-mini futures, this week. As members refused to trust preconceived notions about where the market SHOULD go and waited for the market to reveal its plans, they were advised that holding support in the 1411/13 area indicated a move to target the previous week's highs. They weren't surprised when the market did just that, rallying to our exact target of 1424 in a move that had many bearish fundamental analysts scrambling to cover their short positions.

But as regular readers should know, we continue to believe the real decision about the future of this market, whether it's a bull or bear, can occur at higher levels, near 1440. With 1411/13 continuing to hold midweek, members had the Andrew's fork in the chart below to guide their intraday trading, but also that critical support level as confirmation of a short trade should it be lost.

As you know, the S&P did slide below that support level, and members who waited for confirmation still caught a juicy short trade as the market cascaded below 1400, shown in the chart below. Once again, the chart demonstrates the TTC method of taking profits at important target levels with an eye to reenter the trade if the opportunity develops, but without risking any gains.

In addition to our powerful support/resistance levels, members also have access to a number of proprietary indicators that track trend momentum that become especially useful in seemingly quiet markets that lull other traders to sleep. The 6-min trend oscillator was particularly useful as the market retested 1400 late in the week. A move that appeared to have legs was revealed to be approaching significant resistance as shown below, giving traders a very fast and easy 10-point trade. The bounce late on Friday may have had many traders puzzled, but it too was forecast in our daily forum. The operative Elliott wave count that gave us that trade, however, also speaks to the future of this market and is reserved for members only.

The market receiving most attention lately has been crude oil, as it continues to trade higher and higher, seemingly unstoppable. Members were given a clear plan that a reversal from 123 was an early signal for a short in crude, but that losing 119 was important confirmation for staying in the trade. The chart below reveals the expected reversal did occur, but when support materialized at 119, TTC members knew not to press. Crude oil is a market that continues to evolve quickly, so it's impossible to provide much actionable intelligence in a weekly update, though members already have access to our thoughts in this market going forward.

With so many of our members making back their monthly subscription fees in days or hours, or less, it's safe to say TTC is simply the best risk/reward trade available. But now, we're making membership risk free with our money back guarantee. Because it can take time to integrate TTC into your active trading, we want you to have the opportunity to orient yourself, read the forums, chat with members and make an informed decision about whether we can help make you a better trader. Join this weekend and if TTC isn't the right place for you, cancel by Memorial Day and get your money back, no questions asked.

TTC is unique among market analysis sites in that it is configured as a forum wherein members actually participate in the analysis. Over the past two years we've been around, institutional traders have become an important part of our membership, exchanging their perspective and insight into trading techniques, psychology and money management. Even if you're not able to contribute to the discussion, your membership gives you access to the best real time, tradable analysis on the web at a price well below what other sites charge for much less. Going forward, serving our institutional membership will become our primary focus and in order to maintain our high standard of quality, we are forced to limit new retail membership.

But if you want daily updates on all these and other markets, if you want to learn how to trade short term time frames and access next week's charts posted in the weekly forum right now, the opportunity to join the TTC community of traders is quickly slipping away. We're set to close our doors Memorial Day weekend to all but institutional traders, but this weekend only you have the opportunity to try our site absolutely risk free. If you're really serious about trading, learn more about what TTC has to offer, the time to join is now.

Have a profitable and safe week trading, and remember:
"Unbiased Elliott Wave works!"

Dominick,
a.k.a. Spwaver
TradingTheCharts.com

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.

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