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June 05, 2008

For the Ignorance Arbitrage Business Model, the End Game Nears
by Reggie Middleton

Yep, I said it. The monoline business model that MBIA and Ambac used relied on the ignorance of the clients and market participants to survive. These companies attempted to undercut the market pricing of risk - charging clients consistently less than what Mr. Market would, and pocketing the difference, all the while doing so with 100x plus leverage against products with sparse or unknown loss histories. It was bound to hit the wall. In a few hours, I'm probably going to release some research that shows how regional banks have backed themselves up against the failure wall using 7x to 20x leverage, so just imagine 100x plus leverage...

We are now about to close a chapter in this book, but fear not fellow blogophytes, there is a new chapter whose 1st page is about to be turned...

From Bloomberg : MBIA, Ambac Signal They May Give Up Aaa Battle After Moody's Threatens Cut

MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. may give up attempts to retain Aaa credit ratings of their bond insurance units after Moody's Investors Service put them under review for a second time this year.

The world's largest bond insurers said they won't raise capital after New York-based Moody's said yesterday that the most likely result of its examination would be a downgrade of the companies' insurance financial strength rankings.

Moody's originally put Ambac and MBIA under review in January, only to affirm the ratings of MBIA a month later and Ambac in March. The credit rating company cited "meaningful uncertainty" about Ambac's ability to regain market share since the first reviews, and "diminished new business prospects" for MBIA in yesterday's announcement. This uncertainty is well grounded.

"You can't go to somebody to raise capital if you don't know what the rules for capital raising would be," Armonk, New York-based MBIA Chief Executive Officer Jay Brown told reporters yesterday. "Goal posts move, targets change." On the surface, he has a valid point here, but the truth of the matter is he know full well that the company didn't deserve a AAA rating. They played along with the phony, funny money rules of the credit wizard, and when it was time for them to be "funny monied", they cry foul????

Moody's decision is "liberating" for New York-based Ambac, and may enable it to consider options other than selling stock or debt, Doug Renfield-Miller, an executive vice president at the company, said at an investor conference. I've always alleged that it was a waste of resources and a destruction of shareholder value to chase an ephemeral AAA rating that you both never deserved and couldn't retain. IMHO, these companies are pretty much finished as the guarantors they once were.

Wider Losses

MBIA and Ambac raised a combined $4.1 billion in the past six months to convince Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings they had enough capital to justify their top rankings. Fitch cut Ambac to AA in January and MBIA to AA in April. Notice how Fitch is not part of this "settlement". They worked hard to save face and regain their credibility. I actually covered my shorts on these two insurers after booking fat profits, but reinstated them (See "Short Seller Dreamin') after hearing that the returning MBIA CEO who spearheaded the drive into structured products requested that Fitch no longer review the company. That was a bone headed move for a company whose stability is in question and whose ratings agencies credibility is already called into serious question. Such management blunders screamed out, "SHORT ME SOME MORE, PLEASE!!!"

MBIA Insurance Corp.'s financial strength rating likely will fall to the Aa range, though a drop to the A category is possible, Moody's said yesterday in a statement. Ambac Assurance Corp.'s ranking will probably be cut to Aa, Moody's also said.

"I don't think they're going to respond in any way to keep the rating," said Jim Ryan, an analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. "I don't think there's anything they can do."

MBIA may start a new insurance business with $900 million it raised in February, Brown said. Actually, I think the Insurance Commissioner of NY will want you to keep that money to pay policy claims and back your liabilities... Ambac shareholders suggested the company stop writing new business and enter a state of "run off," where it winds down as policies mature, Renfield-Miller said. Best idea yet.

While raising capital isn't likely, "we're not giving up with Moody's or the other rating agencies. We're going to continue our dialogue, and try to convince them they've erred," Renfield-Miller said. Keep hope alive. Their own asses are on the line now (see side bar). Know more credit wizard cartoonery. See the cartoons, credit wizard one and two.

Market Disconnect

Ambac reported a $1.66 billion net loss in the first quarter after $3.1 billion in charges related to subprime- mortgage securities it insured. MBIA lost $2.4 billion as the value of derivatives it sells to guarantee debt tumbled $3.58 billion.

MBIA, which had plunged 90 percent in the past year, dropped $1.06, or 15.8 percent, to $5.63 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday, the lowest since June 1988. Ambac, down 97 percent in the past year, fell 51 cents, or 17 percent, to $2.49, a new low.

"The disconnect between the market's perception and the rating agencies' assigned ratings has finally become an elephant in the room too big to ignore," Kathleen Shanley, an analyst at Chicago-based bond research firm Gimme Credit, wrote in a report yesterday. Actually, the NYS regulators and DA got tired of the lying bullsh1t!

The prospect of downgrades earlier this year roiled markets because of concern that guarantees for more than $1 trillion of debt may be worthless. The problem is no less significant now then it was then. Let's see if the media proffers a muted reaction.

AAA Focus

Until yesterday, MBIA and Ambac executives said they were focused on keeping Aaa ratings.

"Our goal is to rebuild confidence and to insulate our ratings from future volatility," Ambac CEO Michael Callen said at the company's annual meeting on June 3.

Brown told shareholders at MBIA's annual meeting in May that "we are very comfortable that we have raised adequate capital."

Credit-default swaps tied to MBIA's insurance unit rose to a record. Sellers of five-year contracts demanded 23.5 percent up front and 5 percent a year yesterday, according to London- based data provider CMA Datavision. That's up from 18.5 percent initially and 5 percent a year two days ago. Wow, I generally don't buy CDS, but it does seem to have been a very profitable trade. You know, the devil is in the details though. In order to monetize those paper profits, you have to unwind the traded - you know... Brokers, Bankers, and Bullsh1t. It will be interesting to see who gets stiffed for those profits they thought they had, and what happens to those funds NAV calculations. Side pockets, here we come!!!

The up front cost to protect Ambac debt jumped to 25.5 percent from 21.5 percent, CMA prices show. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities should the company fail to adhere to its debt agreements or if it can't make good on its guarantees.

"It's next to impossible" for the companies to raise capital, Andrew Wessel, an analyst with JPMorgan Securities in New York, told Bloomberg Television.

The Partial Cost of Monoline ABS Failure
	Par	Equity	Exposure Ratio
Bear Stearns*	$15,673,088,703	$11,793,000,000	132.90%	BSC ABS inventory
Morgan Stanley**	$22,956,101,796	$31,269,000,000	73.41%	MS ABS Inventory
Lehman Brothers***	$3,151,328,632	$22,490,000,000	14.01%	LEH ABS Inventory
Citigroup	$8,100,028,623	$127,113,000,000	6.37%	C ABS Inventory
Countrywide****	$12,639,385,566	$15,252,230,000	82.87%	CFC ABS Inventory
Wells Fargo****	$4,700,835,231	$47,738,000,000	9.85%	Wells Fargo ABS Inventory
Goldman Sachs	$18,673,869,328	$42,800,000,000	43.63%	GS ABS Inventory
WaMu****	$7,658,982,498	$23,941,000,000	31.99%	WaMu ABS Inventory
Merrill Lynch	$10,224,387,634	$38,626,000,000	26.47%	ML ABS Inventory
Centex*****	$511,740,636	$3,197,130,000	16.01%	CTX ABS Inventory
Wachovia****	$5,328,228,928	$76,872,000,000	6.93%	Wachovia ABS Inventory
Totals	$118,950,151,688	$477,918,010,000	24.89%

* collapsed two months after I warned on the blog: Is this the Breaking of the Bear?

** the most exposed bank to counterparty credit risk on the street: The Riskiest Bank on the Street and Reggie Middleton on the Street's Riskiest Bank - Update

*** at risk due to the largest proportionate MBS inventory on the street, effectively un hedgeable at this amount and in these markets

**** card carrying members of the Doo-Doo bank 32 list. See:As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo! and Doo-Doo bank drill down, part 1 - Wells Fargo.

***** Centex and Lennar have (had) some of the largest subprime mortgage operations in the country. They don't publicize it much, but I am sure they are getting stuck with a lot of paper, as well as real estate on their books. I have an update to Lennar which I will hopefully get to post in a few days. Till then, see the older analyses: Lennar Insolvent: Enron redux??? and Voodoo, Zombies, Lennar�s Off Balance Sheet Accounting and Other Things of Mystery & Myth.

For those who haven't read them, see :Banks, Brokers, & Bullsh1+ part 1 and Banks, Brokers, & Bullsh1+ part 2

Fall out from the municipal sector, most of whom have already been granted monoline immunity from regulators (they knew this was coming and actually expect ratings to fall to junk status ): Municipal bond market and the securitization crisis - part I and Municipal bond market and the securitization crisis - part 2 (should be read by whoever is not a muni expert - this newsbyte may be worth reading as well)

Fallout before the US trading day starts:

Asia-Pacific Bond Risk Rises to Six-Week High on MBIA, Ambac: The cost of protecting Asia-Pacific bonds from default increased to a six-week high, led by banks and consumer lenders, after Moody's Investors Service threatened to cut the ratings of MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Corp.

The potential loss of the two bond insurers' top Aaa credit rankings renewed concern that guarantees for more than $1 trillion of debt may be worthless, leading to more losses in global credit markets. The first downgrade reviews in January boosted Asian credit-default-swap benchmark indexes to what was then a record.

"It just shows, you can never price in enough bad news," said Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING Groep NV in Singapore. "There's a bout of credit angst."

The Markit iTraxx Japan index rose 1 basis point to 91 as of 2:23 p.m. in Tokyo, according to Morgan Stanley. Australia's benchmark default-swap index advanced 2.5 to 110.5, Credit Suisse Group AG prices show. Rising prices suggest deteriorating investor perceptions of credit quality.

Contracts on Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia's biggest investment bank, posted the largest increase among the world's financial companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Credit-default swaps on Macquarie's senior and subordinated bonds both gained 5 basis points to 145 and 230 respectively, according to Citigroup Inc. prices.

Japanese Notes Advance as Stock Losses Boost Demand for Debt June ...: June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese five-year notes rose on speculation a decline in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average boosted demand for the relative safety of government debt.

Yields approached a two-week low on concern credit-market losses may spread as U.S. and European financial firms release earnings. Moody's Investors Service said yesterday it may downgrade the world's biggest bond insurers and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. lowered its rating on the Japanese banking sector.

"While inflation is still the biggest focus of the market, some attention is paid to credit market concerns before earnings results of financial institutions, leading to debt buying," said Atsushi Ito, a strategist at Morgan Stanley Japan Securities Co. in Tokyo. "Declines in stocks added support."

Reggie Middleton
http://boombustblog.com/

Reggie Middleton is the personification of the freethinking maverick--the penultimate nonconformist as it applies to macro strategies, investment, and analysis. He uses his background and knowledge in new media, distributed computing, risk management, insurance, financial engineering, real estate, corporate valuation, and financial analysis to pursue, analyze, and capitalize on global macroeconomic opportunities.

Finding most available research lacking, both in quality and quantity, Mr. Middleton assembled his own talented research staff. As forensic research is a lynchpin for his own investing, "to actually put food on the table," he stands behind it as doing what it is supposed to do - illustrate, elucidate and educate.

He does not sell advice or research. He is an entrepreneur who exists outside of mainstream corporate America and Wall Street. This allows him the freedom to do things that many cannot--perform without conflicts of interest and corporate politics. He prides himself on developing some of the highest quality, actionable research available - regardless of price. He welcomes any and all to peruse his blog of freely available analysis, opinion and participatory social media; use his custom tools, download files, interact with the community and make critical comparisons from a results orientated perspective. Reggie believes ideas and implementations are improved and fine-tuned when bounced off of the collective intellect of the many, in lieu of that of the few - in essence, a form of collaborative open source financial analysis.

Visit his blog Boom Bust Blog.

Copyright © 2007-2008 Reggie Middleton

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