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June 08, 2008

Bernanke's Next Moves
by Randy

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke this week took the unusual step of defending the US Dollar and stated:

"We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate, including the risk of an erosion in longer-term inflation expectations."

In layman's terms: We understand that our policy of cutting interest rates and injecting massive sums of money into our banking/financial system is causing significant dollar devaluations which is, in-turn, stoking massive inflation and future inflationary pressures. We the Fed, are on top of things and are in the process of formulating new policies to stave off these pressures, so don't bet on future rate cuts and you might even want to plan on seeing future rate increases.

HA! What a bunch of bologna... He's trapped and knows it!

With reports of the biggest jobless increase in over two decades, the largest housing bust since the Great Depression, Contagion spreading across the banking sector -- with massive writedowns to follow, recent MBIA and AMBAC downgrades, and credit crunch phase-2 ready to kick in, he is absolutely, unequivocally a caged animal with no room to move.

If he dare increase rates (he won't) our current, severely understated economic contraction will intensify and the downward sliding economic snowball, gathering momentum, will likely burst into a banking/financial system collapse.

Previously, I stated we'll likely see a 2% FFR in 08 and a 1% rate in 09. Thus far, I've been right in 08 and I still feel strongly I'll be right in 09.

As I see it, the Fed will hold five more FOMC meetings between now and the end of this year and rate announcements will be announced on the following dates:

June 25th
Aug 5th
Sept 16th
Oct 29th
Dec 16th

Baring any drop below 11,700 on the DOW between now and June 25th, I expect the fed to pause at the next FOMC meeting(no action on rates) -- If we do drop below the stated number, expect a new rate cut.

I expect Credit Crunch Phase-2 to kick in by Aug/Sept 08, and it will likely make phase-1 look like a walk in the park, so expect a cut at one of these meetings and another in October 08.

By December, semantic debate over our full-blown economic recession will be over/recession will be unquestionable and our newly elected President will demand action -- so expect another cut.

Bottom Line: Expect a 1.5% or lower FFR between now and the end of this year and a 1% or lower in 09.

Helicopter Ben's recent "strong dollar" talk is just that -- "talk", so don't expect any change from current policy.

US Dollar index going below 70 this year and inflation will intensify... His rant was all smoke and mirrors for the gullible.

Best regards

Randy
contrarian2day

Disclaimer: These articles merely reflect the opinions of this author and are by no means a guarantee of future economic conditions. Though the author strives to provide accurate and relevant data, he sometimes relies on external sources and cannot assure the reader of the accuracy contained within. Additionally, these articles are provided for INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY and are NOT MEANT to provide investment advice to anyone. For investment advice, please consult with your professional financial planner.

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