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December 17, 2008

The Fed Says Buy Gold
by David Nichols

On Tuesday we received direct confirmation from the Fed that the U.S. dollar will continue to be sacrificed to resuscitate ailing credit and asset markets. "Helicopter Ben" is finally living up to his advance billing, as dollars are set to rain down on the economy.

Gold markets got a huge burst of upside energy immediately following this surprisingly forthright Fed statement, and the long-anticipated move up to $875 is well underway. This is of course great news for our long positions, and it looks now like $875 will only be a temporary waypoint on the way back up to the all-time highs.

On a related note, the trading program for the Fractal Gold Report has captured the majority of the move up off the bottom, with our initial long position coming way back at $710. While many hedge funds and money managers have had a disastrous year, the program has not only come through this tough period unscathed, but is well into positive territory, and that includes all fees and commissions. (Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss in all trading.) Subscribers to the Fractal Gold Report are eligible for participation in the trading program if they meet the brokerage firm requirements.

As the New Year approaches, this is the perfect time to assess which methods have been successful during this historic market shake-out. As they say, it's easy to be a genius in a bull market. But the real "value-added" is most apparent during the turbulent periods.

My road-map for gold in 2008 called for a top around $1,010 in late March, followed by a lengthy and difficult corrective period which was likely to carry gold all the way back down to $730, which I subsequently adjusted to $675 as the correction was underway.

The actual high was $1,033 in late March. Then after a difficult six month corrective period, gold bottomed out at $681 in late October.

But the most important thing to notice on this monthly chart is how the correction has already accomplished its main job, which was to bring the monthly fractal dimension back over 55. This means that gold is again in position to rocket to the upside. A monthly trend in gold can carry prices up $400 or even $500. These are huge moves. There is still plenty of room to extend higher, even in the short-term.

The 150-minute fractal dimension has dropped quickly with this very strong breakout move, but it's only down to 41, so there should be more than enough energy left to take gold up to $875 on Wednesday.

At this point my plan is to take profits at $875 if the 150-minute fractal dimension is again down in the low 30s or high 20s as gold is stretching up to this target. As we just saw at $810, there is little risk of missing out on further upside in such a scenario, and it can greatly reduce risk, as we can side-step that period of time when gold is highly unlikely to make further upside progress, and is much more likely to correct back down.

But after this expected short-term correction off the $875 energy level, we will be looking to get right back in for the next phase of this very exciting bullish pattern.

As always, I will provide daily updates on gold in the Fractal Gold Report, and subscribers with the annual plan also receive the Fractal Silver Report.

David Nichols
email: editorial@fractalgoldreport.com
Fractal Gold Report

David Nichols publishes the Fractal Gold Report, a daily report covering the gold market using proprietary techniques that go beyond technical and fundamental analysis. The Fractal Gold Report is available by subscription here. Fractal Gold Report Disclosure.

David Nichols is a graduate of Yale University and a leader in the emerging field of fractal market analysis. This pioneering analytical approach studies the markets as chaotic, non-linear systems, addressing the predictability in financial markets. Fractal market analysis discovers the order hidden within the seemingly random chaos of the markets.

David is the editor of the Fractal Market Report and the Fractal Gold Report, daily subscription newsletters written in an easy-to-understand style that cover the markets using his proprietary techniques that go beyond technical and fundamental analysis.

Copyright © 2008-2009 Fractal Gold Report. All Rights Reserved.

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