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This week, Congress and the administration once again showed their lack of
economic understanding, as they ramped up spending to record levels. On the
surface, maybe it does look to some like the economic crisis is a liquidity
problem, that the economy is in trouble because money is not changing hands
at the pace it once did in the boom years. They believe that to get back to
a booming economy money needs to start changing hands again - and the quickest
way to do this is for the federal government to massively expand spending to
pump new money into the system. If this is the extent of their understanding,
no wonder they call for spending, taxing, bailouts and inflation.
If spending was the solution, we never would have had a problem. During the
last eight years, we've blown up the size of government and certainly had no
want of spending on foreign or domestic policy. The Bush administration increased
spending almost 20% its first term, and nearly doubled the national debt by
the end of the second term. Certainly the case cannot be made that lack of
government spending created the problem or can be the solution.
This is mirrored in American households. According to CNN private sector debt
is 365% of private sector gross domestic product. Many relied simply on steady
and continued increase in home values to enable spending and secure more debt.
That trend has proven unsustainable and many Americans are adjusting their
finances accordingly. For the first time, household debt is beginning to fall
as consumers wake up to the realities of paying off debt and living within
their means.
Wouldn't it be great if the government would do the same?
A lot of capital and liquidity is out there waiting in the wings as the new
administration is bringing about government uncertainty, a concept discussed
by Robert Higgs as prolonging the Great Depression. In other words, it is a
foregone conclusion that government will act. But, like a chicken with its
head cut off, no one knows which way it will run, just that it will flail about
wildly until it collapses.
Why start a business, when businesses could face the brunt of an increase
in future taxation? Similarly, why hire a new employee if tax policy will just
force you to fire them later on to stay afloat? Why buy a house, when you have
no idea how future government meddling in the housing market will affect its
value? Why spend at the shopping mall, or buy a new car when you don't know
how tax policy will affect your family budget, or if your job will come under
the axe because your employer's tax burden is increased?
I argue these kinds of questions and concerns contribute to the weakening
economy. This type of tax policy keeps capital out of third world nations,
and now is keeping capital in hiding here in the US. People are concerned about
security and savings again, retrenching their household and business budgets.
The economy could be helped if the government would just get out of the way
and restore sound monetary and fiscal policies.
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