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August 07, 2009

The NASDAQ 100 ... Has it Been in a Bull Market Rally, or in a Bear Market Rally?
by Marty Chenard

Many investors believe the current NASDAQ 100 run-up has been a Bull market rally. Others think it has been a Bear market rally. What's the answer?

The answer is pretty easy to decipher if you simply look at a 10 year chart of the NASDAQ 100 ... see the chart below.

This is a 10 year chart of the NASDAQ 100 showing the 1999 Bull move and the subsequent crash of the NASDAQ.

What was important was the giant triangular pattern from 2000 to 2008. The recent drop on the NASDAQ 100 occurred after the index could not hold above the support line at label 4. Just before that drop, the NASDAQ 100 had finished its 4th. touch point on its resistance line with a downside failure.

So, after a retest of the lows earlier this year, the NASDAQ 100 has been on a vigorous upside rally. So, was it a Bull or Bear market rally?

Well, if you look at the chart, you can see our new label #5. That is where the NASDAQ's 10 year resistance line currently is. The current rally is about to meet a very formidable 10 year resistance line. Since the NASDAQ 100 has not made it above this resistance line yet, the rally has been a Bear market rally.

So, now its truth or consequence time. Will the NASDAQ 100 break above the resistance or fail to the downside? See the next chart ...

This chart is a close up of the above chart. Here, you can see that we are now dealing with two resistance lines ... one a 10 year resistance, and the other is a 22 month resistance line.

At the close yesterday, we were approximately 2.6% away from the first resistance and approximately 6% away from the second resistance line. Since this current rally has remained below its long term resistance line, this has technically been a bear market rally.

Now the important questions hangs before us ... will the NASDAQ 100 fail at resistance level 5, or will it continue up and peek over the Bull market's fence? (This chart is updated daily on our paid subscriber site.)

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Marty Chenard
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Tel: 828-296-1200

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