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September 18, 2009

Cramer: Calling For A Top In Bonds
by Guy Lerner

Jim Cramer is at it again. This time he is calling for a top in US Treasury Bonds. Mama mia, I am heading for the hills. Cramer is calling for higher interest rates, therefore it must be so.

In this video clip taken from "Mad Money", Cramer gives his reasons, and essentially, his premise is built around an economic recovery, higher growth, and inflation. He does acknowledge the roll that the Treasury and Fed may play as they continue to issue supply and expand the debt. There is no mention of the feedback that higher interest rates may have on an economic recovery or inflation.

As usual Cramer is almost certain in his convictions, but I have to tell you, I feel there is very little rigor to the analysis. He states all the usual suspects as to why we should see higher rates, but truth be told and as we have been writing about for the last 6 weeks, interest rates are heading lower while the stock market, which we are told is forecasting a better economy, is heading higher. This is a very noticeable divergence.

I would agree with Cramer that we are on the cusp of a secular trend change that should lead to increasing yield pressures, but I don't see that happening in the near term.

Lastly, in light of my recent look at investor sentiment in the bond market, I guess I should be cheering. Now everyone knows that Treasury bonds are topping (i.e., yields bottoming) because Cramer said so. Cramer calling for a top or a bottom is a frequent occurrence. I suspect if you make enough of them than you will get a few right.

Guy M. Lerner
http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: Guy M. Lerner is the editor and founder of The Technical Take blog. His commentary on the financial markets is based upon information thought to be reliable and is not meant as investment advice. Under no circumstances does the information in his columns represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Lerner may on occasion hold positions in the securities mentioned in his columns and on the Web site; in all instances, all positions are fully disclosed at http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/. However, their positions may change at anytime. For more information on any of the above, please review The Technical Take's full Terms of Use and Privacy Policy (link below). While Lerner cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your comments to: guy@thetechnicaltake.com.

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