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February 03, 2005

Elliott Wave Analysis on the USD
by Dan Stinson

One more wave up.

Short Term Forecast - The USD has been rallying in wave (2) after it bottomed in December 2004. We should see 3 waves up to complete this wave (2) rally before further downside to new lows. The USD has completed wave A and is completing wave B as a triangle, which is complete, or almost complete. We need to see a break above 84.08 to confirm the completion of the triangle and the start of wave C up.( At the time of the writing, it just broke above 84.08). We should see wave C complete as 5 waves up. Once wave C of wave (2) completes, we should see the USD move to new lows. At the same time we should see the metals bottom and move to new highs. Gold and Silver still have further downside in wave C to complete wave (2) down, before further upside. The first chart for the USD indicates that the wave B triangle is complete and further upside in wave C is to follow. The second chart for Silver illustrates further downside to the $5.50 area in wave C is expected before a reversal.

While we have traced the wave (2) upside count for the USD, we also have traced out the downside counts for Gold and Silver. Further downside for Gold and Silver is still expected and we could see Silver as low as $5.50. Conversely, the USD appears ready to move higher in wave C to at least the 85-87 area. Once these C waves complete, there will be some excellent opportunities for Gold and Silver and many stocks that have dropped significantly since the beginning of last year.

We can use these charts to monitor and confirm the upcoming reversals. The move higher for the USD in wave C will be impulsive and will move quickly once it gets underway. At the same time, we should see steep downside for the metals to complete the downside to the target areas. If you are interested in viewing these updated charts and other detailed charts with targets for the reversal on a daily basis, please see the registration details below.

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To learn more on the status of Gold, Silver, HUI, XAU, and the USD, please visit the link below for registration details.

The commentary and forecasts are updated daily, including intraday commentary and chart updates. Fibonacci pivot dates and cycle analysis is also included. The indices covered are the NASDAQ, DOW, S&P 500, Gold, Silver, HUI and the XAU. Additional charts cover the Nikkei, US Dollar (USD), 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX), IBM, Nortel, Microsoft, Ballard Power, Celestica, ATI Technologies, Biovail, Bema Gold, Newmont Mining and Agnico Eagle Mines. Registration Details

Happy Trading!!!

Dan Stinson
Elliott Wave Chart Site
ewavecharts.com

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