The French "No" vote on the European Constitution, which has created political
uncertainty in Europe, has produced the reflexive, and ironic "flight to quality" into
the U.S. dollar. Not only has the euro fallen against the dollar, down over
2% since the vote, but to a lesser extent, initially so did every other currency
on the planet, until weak economic data from Chicago's NAPM provided the catalyst
for a reality check. As currency traders focus their attention on potential
future problems for the European Union, they lose site of current and more
acute problems confronting the United States. It is ironic that the currency
of the world's biggest debtor nation is still the "safe haven" of choice when
concerns arise regarding superior currencies of creditor nations.
Yes, Europe has problems, and yes the French "No" vote may create some additional
uncertainty as to their ultimate resolution (though a "Yes" vote would hardly
have been a panacea). The fact remains that for all its flaws, the European
Union at least lives within its means, as diminished as those means may be
as a result of excessive government interference in the economy in general
and labor markets in particular. Currency traders unfavorably compare stagnant
economic growth and high unemployment rates in Europe, with seemingly far better
statistics in the United States. However, this simplistic assessment ignores
two important facts:
1. That favorable U.S. economic statistics measuring growth and unemployment
in large part reflect the "creative" accounting methods used to calculate them,
rather legitimate economic performance.
2. The fact that without the massive subsidy the rest of the world bestows
on the United States, a subsidy ironically increased as a result of the most
recent flight to the dollar, the U.S. economy would now be in recession, with
an unemployment rate even worse than that of the European Union.
Foreign subsidies, which sustain the massive U.S. current account deficit
through currency intervention and the extension of low interest rates loans,
allow technically insolvent American consumers to go deeper into debt to buy
more imported product that they could not otherwise afford. By artificially
suppressing U.S. interest rates, and recklessly extending credit, the world
continues to breath air into American's enormous housing bubble, providing
collateral for additional debt-financed consumption. Since consumer spending
and housing account for the vast majority of U.S, "economic growth" and employment,
without foreign support, the unstable foundation of America's bubble economy
would give way.
Comparing the American economy with that of the European Union is unfair.
A critical difference is that at the moment Europeans have to save while Americans
don't. Or more specifically, Americans consumers are willing to act far more
irresponsibly than their European counterparts, and the world's creditors are
willing to look the other way. As a result, America's current GDP figures are
in essence borrowed form the future, as today's higher growth rates come at
the expense of lower growth rates in the future. In addition, service sector
jobs are easily created as they use minimal capital, and therefore require
little in the way of savings. When the dollar finally collapses, Americans
will loose access to the world's savings, and be forced to live within their
diminished means, just like the Europeans. Also like the Europeans, having
to actually produce stuff for a change, encumbered by excessive taxation and
regulation, but with the added obstacle of insufficient domestic savings, Americans
will find creating jobs the old fashioned way a far more daunting task.
My advice to Americans is to take advantage of the world's short sightedness,
and sell into the dollar's recent strength. By selling dollars I do not mean
buying euro futures on leverage, that is a dangerous speculation, not to be
confused with far more conservative foreign investing. I am suggesting selling
dollars to buy high yielding, foreign equities. To download my free research
report entitled "The Collapsing dollar, The Powerful Case for Investing in
Foreign Equities", click the following link https://www.europac.net/report/index.asp?s=euroweb,
or visit www.researchreport1.com.