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August 10, 2005

Gold, Oil, Volatility, and the Stock Market
by John Lee

Oil keeps hanging above $60, since November 2003, it has gained 140%! This has occurred without major supply disruption.

S&P500 in a similar period, has gained over 50%. Such gain would have made sense during a major oil correction, but oil is doing the opposite.

Volatility index keeps on getting lower. It's now lower than late 90's when there was no war, no inflation, and no worries.

In my opinion, those analysts who can manage to explain it all without crediting official intervention, can make sense of everything - in hindsight. If one can't prove that earth is round, those analysts can explain how earth is flat too.

Dollar is sacrificed in the process.

The handholding by the fed will stop at some point for one reason or another (my take is likely by a $100 oil price). When the fed stops buying the markets, dollar may shoot up, along with plunging stock and commodity prices. Much like the reverse of what we have in the last 3 years. Clearly, we are not there yet and there is no reason to suggest any change in current conditions.

What about gold? Gold keeps consolidating. Notice the higher lows. At some point after it overcomes a threshold (whether it be $480 or $500, or higher), it will shoot higher like what we have witnessed in copper and oil.

In all, my take is precious metals remains to be the sector with lowest risk. It's at or near historic low measured by oil, copper, the Dow, or just the gold price itself having adjusted for inflation. Investors might have to be patient for a few more months but they shall be handsomely awarded.

John Lee, CFA
www.maucapital.com

John Lee is the founder and principal of Mau Capital Management and the portfolio manager of a mining equity hedge fund. He is a CFA charter holder and has degrees in Economics and Engineering from Rice University. Mr. Lee has a keen interest in the history of money and economics, and has previously studied under Mr. James Turk, a renowned authority on the gold market.

If you would like to receive subscription of Mr. Lee's Stock Chart of the Week and 4 other famous newsletters for the price of $89.95/3 months, click here to find out more. http://new.goldmau.com/stockchartsubscribe.php

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