Stock investing at the turn of the millennium has taken on quite a different
look. Technology has simplified the process of investing and widened the scope
of the everyday investor. High-tech tools such as online trading have drawn
investors into the convenience and perceived reality of "New Economy" investing.
The tech boom of the 1990s into early 2000 gleamed with investor confidence
in this New Economy before its abrupt and overdue halt in March 2000, bringing
an end to a 17-year
secular bull market in general equities. Since the burst of the tech bubble
it has become readily apparent that we are in the beginning stages of a secular
bear market in general equities.
From its high of 5048 in March 2000, the tech-heavy NASDAQ retreated by 78%
to an interim extreme low in October 2002. While many investors have seemingly
forgotten the massive evaporation of capital that affected so many people during
that time, it has not stopped them from rallying the NASDAQ to 4+ year highs
earlier this month.
NASDAQ valuations today
still sit in bubble territory, yet this renewed tech hype has won over investors
and media alike allowing everyone from shoe-shiners to corporate drones to
once again talk tech.
So does this mean we are in line for another massive tech rally? Absolutely
not! Every bear market experiences bear
market rallies, and historically those poor souls that get caught up in
them and believe them to be new beginnings usually end up sacrificing their
hard-earned capital to the tech abyss.
Over the course of history, for bulls and bears alike, the financial markets
have punished the ignorant and rewarded the prudent. Investors who consistently
make money in the financial markets are unbiased in their investment strategies
and focus on the fundamentals of every market sector. If the general stock
markets appear to be in a long-term downtrend, there is usually some other
venue that has or will catch wind in its sail and outperform them.
That venue today is the Great
Commodities Bull of the 00's. Commodities, like the stock market, have
a history of running in large cycles over time. Commodities cycles tend to
run inverse to the stock markets and were beaten down in the 1990s as stocks
soared into bubble territory, but their comeback has begun. As shown by the
recent rise in the popular CRB
Commodities Index, commodities are on the rise again and appear to be
in the early stages of a secular bull market.
Oil, gold and silver have
spearheaded this commodities run for stock investors. Stocks of companies that
produce such commodities have performed spectacularly since the inception of
this bull. And there has been no better way for investors and speculators to
capitalize on it than to invest directly in gold stocks.
As you can see on the chart below, gold stocks have been carving quite an
impressive uptrend since the beginning of 2001. Gold stock performance is measured
on this chart by the venerable HUI, which is a popular gold-stock index comprised
of a basket of unhedged gold-producing companies.
The infamous NASDAQ, which is our best measure of tech stocks, has been far
less impressive than the HUI over this same period of time. After the massive
twelve month bleed-off from its high in early 2000, the NASDAQ has entrenched
itself in an unimpressive sideways trading pattern for the last 4+ years.
If history repeats itself, as it usually does, the NASDAQ is at best doomed
to a long-term sideways trading range. Since valuations and sentiment are still
enormously high though, I expect it to continue its bleed-off to the negative.
On the flip side, commodities are expected to continue their secular uptrend
as the fundamentals of the world economy dictate.

This chart alone speaks magnitudes in our tech stock versus gold stock discussion,
but though these trends are blatantly apparent, the bull run in gold stocks
has remained relatively unknown in greater investing circles. You will rarely
hear CNBC talk about the HUI or gold stock performance but instead you will
hear useless drivel about the daily noise of the NASDAQ as well as the latest
and greatest tech stock.
I suppose this lack of mainstream exposure is one reason why many investors
suffer in stock bear markets. Manipulation theories aside, the media usually
covers large venues, regardless of performance. Case in point, the total market
capitalization of all the stocks in the HUI combined is barely one-sixth of
that of Microsoft alone.
Therefore not only does it take a prudent investor to search out the not-so-mainstream
opportunities that exist in today's markets, but growing doses of education
from those players within the smaller venues to grow awareness of those
markets.
To this day gold stock investors and speculators remain black sheep among
their peers. Most of my acquaintances think I am nuts for being a gold investor.
Even so, the numbers speak for themselves and simply cannot be ignored.
In the chart above we see the technical advantage gold stocks have shown over
tech stocks, but what I would like to provide is a fundamental case as to why
the technical trends we see above will continue and why gold stocks will bring
more value to investors than tech stocks as this commodities bull gallops forward.
In addition to Long
Valuation Waves, there are a myriad of strategic reasons why we are in
a secular gold bull and why the stock markets are in a secular bear. Reasons
such as commodities
demand, the US
dollar bear, gold
fundamentals, interest
rates, etc provide a macro view of what we are faced with today. It's
not too late to jump on the commodities bandwagon! These reasons alone provide
case enough for what we have witnessed in the last five years and what we
will most likely experience for the next 10+ years.
Instead of repainting the strategic picture summarized above and waving in
front of you the past performance our chart provides, we will take a tactical
look at tech stocks versus gold stocks. We will look at several different facets
of business and finance at the corporate level and compare and contrast the
average technology stock to the average gold stock.
In comparing tech stocks against gold stocks, they must first be defined in
the context I will be using. When I refer to a gold stock, this is a mining
company that actually pulls gold from the earth and sells it on the open market.
Tech stocks can be loosely defined as companies, whether internet, telecom,
hardware, software, etc that claim cutting-edge technology, services or concepts
which they market as necessity or convenience and as the wave of the future.
At a glance, it is easy for a tech investor to look at the fundamentals of
some gold stocks and think to himself, "These gold stocks are just as risky
as my tech stocks, in fact, the valuations are not very impressive." Well, at
a glance, they may have a point. Interestingly, half of the stocks that
currently make up the HUI do not have positive earnings.
Tech pumpers I know insist there is no fundamental difference between their
investments and speculations and mine. As you can imagine, I couldn't disagree
more and this mindset is not only dangerous but couldn't be farther from the
truth. We must dig a little deeper to discover the true make-up of these types
of companies.
The Product: Gold is the Ancient Metal of Kings. Gold is gold, has always
been gold and will always be gold. Gold was as rare and precious 6000 years
ago as it is today. Gold will never be replaced with a better gold, gold will
never be artificially fabricated and gold will always be in demand.
The product gold stocks provide is alluring, everlasting and continually desired.
Technology on the other hand is a whole different ballgame than gold. Please
don't take me the wrong way, as I am not anti-technology. I love technology
and think it is a wonderful thing. I have a cellular phone, a wireless computer
network in my house and live on the internet. And if it weren't for Al Gore
and his internet revolution, it would be infinitely harder to communicate with
the global populace.
To generalize the different areas of technology, we will use widgets as the
blanket product our tech companies provide. This product can be physical, a
service or a concept, so we'll have to keep an open mind for our widgets.
Technology does have countless benefits, but it quickly becomes outdated.
Widgets will always be replaced by cheaper, smaller, faster and more efficient
widgets. When old widgets are replaced, their lifespans are drastically decreased
and they eventually become obsolete. If the company that produces these widgets
is not the company that produces the next-generation widget, then it too will
become obsolete.
In order for something to become obsolete, that means it actually had to be
useful at some point. Interestingly, some widgets are not always useful and
have never proven market or cost effectiveness. Even though some tech companies
are publicly traded with billion-dollar-plus market capitalizations, their
widgets may have never been implemented on an accurately measurable scale in
order to prove their viability.
As I mentioned above, some widgets are conceived in concept and sold to investors
without truly being tested in the marketplace. If that's the case, is the product
truly a widget? I'm sure you remember well the dot-com craze not too long ago.
Internet companies were so popular that stock investors bid up any company
that boasted a creative web address. All that was needed was a little code
and a catchy tune for them to be billion-dollar companies.
Thousands of companies sucked in trillions of dollars of investor capital
to no avail during the tech bubble. If you wanted to ride the tech rocket,
it was truly a crapshoot choosing which companies to invest in that would actually
survive. Most of these companies had promising and ambitious business plans,
but ended up not being viable in the marketplace.
Notorious flops such as Pets.com, eToys, Internet Capital Group, Webvan, WebTV,
Rhythms and thousands more turned out to be busts. You would think the lessons
learned by investors five short years ago would translate into more rigorous
testing and resolve before throwing capital at tech stocks again, but that's
not appearing to be the case. Even today there are hundreds of high-flying
tech companies publicly traded in which their widgets are shady at best.
Gold miners have one main product, gold, which will never become obsolete
and will always be in demand. If the market for gold is not hot, the miner
may not have as high of a profit margin, but the gold will still be in demand
and will sell.
The companies out there that do make good widgets are few and far between,
and bottom line, most are currently well overvalued. It's hard enough
to discover these good tech companies, and even harder yet to find them at
a reasonable valuation for investment purposes.
Leverage: The main product for gold miners will never change. They will mine
gold until the economics or ore viability of their deposits say otherwise.
In order for a gold miner to make money on the gold they pull from the ground,
their expenses per ounce must be cheaper than the price at which they sell
that ounce for on the open market.
As stated previously the demand for gold will always exist, but the price
miners are able to sell it for is at the mercy of the markets. Gold miners
historically have not done the gold industry any favors with their lack of
marketing, but you almost can't blame them as many consider marketing a hopeless
cost because of their perceived lack of control over the market price of gold.
When it comes to making money, gold miners' profits are highly leveraged to
the price of gold as it trades in the futures markets. Each company's cost
per ounce stays relatively fixed (variables such as labor, location, ore quality
and more can change expenses at the individual mine level). For example, miner
XYZ is able to produce its gold at an average expense of $300 per ounce. But
what XYZ can sell it for on the open market varies depending on the daily price
fluctuation of gold assuming XYZ is unhedged (if a miner is hedged the selling
price is already set independent of where the market is).
To put it simply, if gold is trading at $350 per ounce, XYZ can realize a
$50 profit per ounce sold. But if gold is trading at $500 per ounce, it can
realize a $200 profit per ounce sold. This difference can be directly added
to bottom-line profits because its costs of producing that ounce of gold remain
the same. In a gold bull market, gold miners are leveraged to
make some serious profits as the price of gold continues to rise, as in this
case XYZ's profits quadrupled on a modest 40% increase in gold.
For many technology companies, there is no guarantee that their widget is
even viable in the market place. If it is or can be viable, its required scalability
may end up hurting it. But a small gold miner can have just as good of a profit
margin as a large gold miner.
Many tech companies require a large volume of sales of their widgets in order
to realize a profit. Smaller widget makers usually have a tough time breaking
into the marketplace. If widget-producing companies cannot meet sales forecasts,
they will not make money, and will eventually go out of business. And in order
to ramp up sales, widgets are mass-produced, pre-ordered, stuck in inventory
and may never be sold whereas gold miners can easily sell every ounce they
liberate.
Competition: One of the benefits of free-market economies is competition.
Naturally, all like-widgets are not produced and sold by the same company.
This forces widget makers to compete for the sale of their widgets. Competition
among widget makers is fierce and expensive, and the weak and inefficient will
not survive.
Competition amongst gold miners is not the typical market competition you
would imagine. Their main competition is not necessarily with each other, but
in their internal business efficiencies and trying to attract shareholder capital.
All gold miners produce and sell the same perfectly fungible product and there
is no competitive advantage to their finished product. Simply put, a refined
ounce of gold is a refined ounce of gold.
Unhedged gold miners sell their gold based on futures prices the commodities
markets set. Because of the limited supply of gold available globally, these
miners need not worry about undercutting the miner next door, they just sell
at the current market price.
Attracting shareholder capital to a gold-mining stock is multifaceted. First,
in a gold bull market, most gold mining companies will be bid up as the underlying
commodity rises in price. But the exceptional ones need to boast alluring qualities
that stand out from the rest. With the final product being the same amongst
competition, cost management and resources are looked at next by investors.
Simply put, those companies that are able to produce their gold cheaper than
the others have a profit advantage and will be rewarded in the financial markets.
Investors also favor those companies that have solid resource portfolios. Miners
that have good mine-lives on existing mines and good mineable deposits for
future mining have a superior advantage in attracting capital.
Tech companies on the other hand compete directly with competitors for a limited
market share of their widgets. They need to be very cognizant of their pricing
or they will either not be able to generate new sales or will lose existing
sales to their competitors. Many times competitors may undercut the price of
their product and initiate a price war that will not only kill the bottom-line
profits of various companies but will bring them to their knees when it comes
to future viability.
In order to stay ahead of the competition, most tech companies employ a massive
sales force and have very large marketing expenses. This is one of many reasons
why valuations are so out-of-whack for these companies. Competition in a weaker
economy will unfortunately break many tech companies as they find fewer and
fewer buyers for their widgets.
Economic Resiliency: After the NASDAQ crash in early 2000 and before the Federal
Reserve created the housing
bubble, America was in the midst of a mini-recession. During these tough
times businesses and individuals alike pulled back on their expenditures. Before
the Fed rescue took full force, many high-flying tech companies either went
completely out of business or were forced to file for bankruptcy protection
causing investors to lose massive amounts of capital.
The Fed housing bubble buffered what could have been a domino effect and will
only keep the economy artificially afloat for so long. When recessionary forces
start to unfold once again, the resiliency of many tech companies will be
tested. How will your tech company withstand increased curbs on spending? How
will your tech company withstand large decreases in investor capital that are
relied upon to boost its stock price?
Now obviously gold stocks will perform better in a gold bull market, but even
when prices are down gold miners are resilient. Gold miners tend to stick around
through the doldrums of their commodity's economic cycles. Many tech companies
on the other hand have serious trouble weathering minor economic blips yet
alone a full-fledged recession.
If the Long Valuation Waves do continue to dictate the future of the stock
markets and most likely the state of the economy, where do you want to have
your hard-earned capital? Take a look at the true fundamentals of some of these
companies. Yes, at first glance, a speculative gold stock may have the
outward appearance of a speculative tech stock, but dig a little deeper.
Gold miners may not currently be in the green because they are aggressively
ramping up the development and production of their gold reserves to take advantage
of this continuing gold bull. Infrastructure and construction costs that go
into a gold mine are enormous. Huge capital expenditures are involved in bringing
these mines to life. But when they are brought into production and the gold
starts to flow, their enormous profits will quickly pay off the mine infrastructure
costs.
Whereas gold demand is far outpacing its mined supply right now, most tech
companies need to create demand for their widgets, and much of the demand for
tech does not lie in necessity. When gold mines go live, their product will sell.
When tech companies create infrastructure and a product line, there is no guarantee
it will sell, especially in a down-trending market.
I have acquaintances in the tech world in which the companies they work for
or used to work for threw away billions of dollars on New Economy physical
infrastructure that will never be fully utilized. Stocks for some of
those companies are somehow still around and trading on the NASDAQ with enormous
market caps, but bankruptcy may be just around the corner for them.
Tech-stock earnings and valuations the last seven or so years have seemed
like the bald-headed step children of fundamentals. For far too long have countless
tech companies been trading upwards without earnings, near-term or long-term
projected earnings or insanely high multiples if they are actually making money.
As the economy tightens and as the commodities bull progresses, the cost of
doing business will rise. Every individual and business will be affected
by the rise in costs of the natural resources it takes to build, transport
and run every widget produced. This will naturally reduce discretionary income
and expenditures on the individual and corporate level. Will tech companies
be able to withstand pressures of this sort?
Continue to keep in mind the strategic reasons listed above for the fundamental
advance of the commodities bull. Supply and demand are a major strategic reason
why commodities are hot, and this funnels down to the individual company level
as well.
At Zeal our research team continually monitors the status of the markets.
The subscriber section of our website has updated Long Valuation Wave charts
as well as many other cutting-edge charts that track the status of this gold
bull.
With the wind catching sail in this commodities bull, we are continually looking
for investment opportunities that have a high probability for success in today's
markets. When the timing looks right, we recommend stocks to our Zeal
Intelligence and Zeal Speculator newsletter
clients that should be positioned to enjoy the highest leverage to this continuing
commodities bull. Please subscribe
today if you would like to join us in these exciting times.
The bottom line is don't be fooled by the summer tech rally and renewed tech
hype. We are in the midst of one of the greatest commodities bulls in history.
In unison with this commodities bull, probabilities are highly in favor of
a continued secular bear market for general equities.
No matter what may be happening in the markets, there are always opportunities
to make money. Gold stocks are so leveraged to the commodity they produce that
if you are positioned well, you may reap legendary gains going forward.
You can take the popular road and risk your hard-earned capital in non-resilient
tech stocks, or you can ride this commodities bull in the stocks of the companies
that produce them. A century-old parable that is often quoted by mainstream
commodities-hater Jim Cramer is very appropriate for today's stock investing, "Bulls
make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered!"