Nearly five years into this commodities bull market, commodities today are
finally starting to garner mainstream attention. Global economic expansion,
natural disasters and market valuations are piquing commodity interest not
only for investors and speculators, but the mass public. People are finally
starting to understand the importance of natural resources in their everyday
lives, and now is when it really gets exciting for investors and speculators.
As the commodities
bull of the 00's races on, our investment focus at Zeal has centered
on stocks leveraged to capture the greatest gains relative to the price appreciation
of the underlying commodity they produce. Gold, silver and oil are
our usual suspects and typically get the most face-time for obvious reasons.
Gold and silver are timeless, alluring and enduring precious metals in which
their beauty, rarity and store of value captivate many. And oil is such an
economically valuable natural resource in today's global economy it affects
virtually every person on the planet in one way or another. These are just
a few of the many
fundamental reasons for this focus, but from an investment perspective
it all hinges on the fact that they are easy to invest in. Gold, silver and
oil are among a handful of commodities in which the majority of their producers
trade in the public stock markets.
Quite unfortunately for pure stock investors, most commodities trade solely
on the futures markets. You would be hard-pressed to find publicly traded companies
that are able to leverage the price of say soy beans, corn, cotton and hogs.
Most investors, understandably so, simply lack the proficiency, desire and
capital to trade effectively in the futures markets.
For many investors just the mention of the word "futures" makes them shudder
in fear. If one fiddles around in the futures markets and does not understand
what they are doing, they can get slaughtered. Though there are differing opinions
as to which is more risky between futures trading and stock trading, if you
know how to play your cards right in this commodities bull either venue offers
the potential to capture legendary gains.
Futures trader or not, it is important to understand that commodities
are more than just precious metals and energy sources. As investors and speculators
we typically stay focused on specific areas of interest or popularity, but
occasionally we need to take a look outside the box. The markets continually
prove they are not biased, and have historically shown that any natural
resource experiencing an economic imbalance can be financially exploited.
Today we are witnessing major economic imbalances in a myriad of commodities,
and as this commodities bull picks up steam, various commodities in addition to
the usual suspects have and will give stock investors opportunities to multiply
their capital. While stock investors are not able to take advantage of every commodity,
there are several out there that do warrant a look.
A few months ago we took a look at uranium as
one of these commodities and found there to be ample opportunity for stock
investors to take advantage of its continuing bull run. Like uranium and most
general commodities, copper is in a secular bull market of its own. Today we
will take a top-down look at copper and see if further opportunities exist
for today's stock investors.
Though copper is neither a precious metal nor a source of energy, it boasts
indispensable industrial, technological and economic uses and is one of the
most important nonferrous commodities today. In addition to its economic significance,
it has had quite a run thus far in today's commodities bull market.
As you can see in our chart below, copper prices have soared in the last four
years with all-time highs being achieved this week. Those companies that produce
and sell copper have watched their revenues and profits skyrocket in this time,
and have consequentially provided their shareholders with very handsome gains.
Our dual-axis chart shows the secular trend that general commodities, represented
through the CRB
Commodities Index, have had since 2001. In addition to the CRB, the price
of copper is charted over this same time period represented in dollars-per-pound
as it trades on the COMEX. It is readily apparent that the two trends are marching
in unison to the tune of a secular bull market with the CRB rising over 80%
since late 2001 and copper shooting up over 200% in this same time period.

In the 1980s and 1990s commodities were beaten and battered. Inventories were
full, mines and drills were shut down or had their production slowed and for
all consumption purposes, commodities were cheap and easy to get. Aside from
the occasional bear-market rally, from an investor's standpoint commodities
were the dogs of the markets.
Well, times have changed and the global economy is growing at a fast and furious
pace led by the super-economies of China and India. Commodities that were once
undervalued are now starting to rise in price due to the simple economic imbalance
of supply and demand. Industrial development and growth in manufacturing and
high technology have kicked up demand for the various natural resources used
in their production, hence causing global inventories of recent to sharply
decline in order to keep up with this new-found demand.
Copper falls comfortably into this cycle and China's voracious appetite for
this metal has been an underlying catalyst to increased global demand and has
almost single-handedly emptied warehouses, drastically decreasing worldwide
stock levels.
For example, in July of this year, copper stocks at the London Metals Exchange
(LME) hit 31-year lows of 25,550 tons, which has the equivalency of less than two
days of global consumption. The hundreds of warehouses around the world,
most commissioned and approved by the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE),
have seen their inventories hit dangerously low levels. There have even been
reports of many producers bypassing the warehouses and shipping directly to
the countries or organizations in need of the metal.
China's demand for copper has hit such extremes that in 2002 it created a
large state-owned enterprise in order to exploit the international development
of nonferrous metals, mainly copper. The firm is called China Nonferrous Metal
Mining & Construction Co., Ltd. (CNMC). Three years later CNMC has operations
in over 30 different countries and is aggressively feeding its smelters back
home.
Upon CNMC's creation, Zhang Jian, general manager of China Nonferrous Metal
Industry's Foreign Engineering and Construction Group Company (CNFC) said, "It
is of strategic significance to China's economic development to set up a long-term
and stable overseas mineral resources supply base. However many domestic small-scale
nonferrous companies are incapable of solely tapping mines abroad. The only
way is to jointly exploit overseas mineral resources."
With China as well as many other growing economies drawing down global inventories,
it becomes clear why copper prices are on the rise and why there is currently
a copper deficit. Case in point, according to the International Copper Study
Group, even though world mine production of copper in 2004 rose by 900,000
tons (6.6%), it was estimated that there was still a global copper production
deficit of up to 700,000 tons.
Now in order to help us decide how to play this bull run in copper, we need
to take a closer fundamental look at copper itself in order to help us understand
its economic impact. First and most important, just like any other metal pulled
from the ground, copper is dependent on miners to ultimately provide the supply.
Even though copper has an excellent capacity for recycling, at the end of the
day mined output is what puts the ingots on the shelves.
In order to keep up with today's and tomorrow's copper demand, mined output
will need to increase. Unfortunately, increasing mine production is not as
easy as turning a faucet counter-clockwise. As is with all metals, ramping
up production and opening up new mines requires significant time and capital.
It is during that time, or cycle, that investors have the opportunity to take
advantage of rising prices.
Now even though the economic imbalance of copper is prevalent today, we need
to keep in mind that copper does not have the same economic fundamentals as
precious metals. Copper, said to be the first metal known to man, is not a
store of value like gold and silver. Even though many of today's global fiat
currencies are circulated in copper, it is not valuable in this sense. Copper
or copper-alloyed coins are common because it is a cheap metal and there has
historically been an abundance of it.
The biggest differences between copper and precious metals, especially gold
and silver, are the rarity and store of value factors. According to the Copper
Development Association (CDA) of the USA, it is estimated that global copper
resources are nearly 6 trillion pounds. The CDA also estimates that throughout
history only 700 billion pounds of copper have been mined.
These massive reserves and resources coupled with copper's high recycle rate
show there to be no imminent risk of ever running out. So for copper it is
not an issue of rarity or store of value, it is a matter of ramping up supply
to meet demand. Just like all commodities, until this happens market forces
will adjust the prices accordingly in the upwards direction and give investors
the opportunity to go long and profit.
Though copper has no store of value, its innumerable industrial uses are absolutely
invaluable. During the tech boom of the 1990s copper got a bad rap due to the
push for fiber optics, which were perceived as the replacement for copper wires
in telecommunications. Although this did reduce demand from that sector and
contributed to its lowest prices in nearly 25 years, this malleable and ductile
metal continues to prove its resiliency and usefulness in virtually every economic
sector. It is used heavily in building construction, transportation, electrical,
automotive and still telecommunications among many other major industries.
According to the CDA, building construction accounts for 46% of all copper
use in America with the average single-family home using 440 pounds of copper.
This tells a story in itself as today we are witnessing a global boom
in residential and commercial infrastructure, yet another testament as to why
global demand for copper has been on the rise.
The geopolitics of copper also play an important role in today's copper market.
Chile happens to be the biggest player in the global copper market. More copper
comes out of Chile than any other country in the world, by far. The Chilean
Copper Commission (Cochilco) forecasts 5.5 million tons of copper production
in 2005, about 0.1 million tons up from the previous year.
This amounts to more than one-third of all global mine production in
2004 as well as that of 2005 forecasts. Much of this copper is mined by state-owned
firm Codelco, but a massive international presence is aggressively increasing
its stake into the rich Chilean copper regions. The copper industry is so massive
along the Pan American Highway, especially in Chile and Peru, that it has become
the lifeblood of their economies.
Because the copper operations in Chile are so strategically voluminous, geopolitical
events within its borders can have a significant effect on global copper prices.
In June of this year, a 7.9 magnitude earthquake rattled Chile, causing various
mining operations to be temporarily shut down or delayed.
Also this year were sizable strikes by Chilean mining employees that, though
now resolved, temporarily hampered production and caused some uneasiness in
the futures markets. Many analysts believe the earthquakes and strikes in Chile
are what sustained and pushed higher copper prices this year out of fear that
production would be seriously depressed, but according to Cochilco, those anomalies
were insignificant in regard to annual production estimates.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), United States copper production
in 2004 was second highest to Chile at nearly 1.2 million tons with Chile's
neighbor Peru close behind at 1.0 million tons. Interestingly, the top three
copper producing countries in the world accounted for over 50% of global production
in 2004, a trend expected to continue for years to come.
Reverting back to the chart above, notice the eight month period from mid-2003
to early 2004. Copper prices rose by a whopping 87% during that span. Some
analysts attributed such a swift gain to a mining disaster at the Grasberg
mine in Indonesia, the fourth largest copper-producing country in the world.
Much hype was centered on this event as the Grasberg mine happens to be the
largest gold mine and third largest copper mine in the world.
In October 2003 a rockslide at the Grasberg mine, which interestingly was
built for a then-record price tag of $3 billion, killed several employees and
slowed production for a period of time reducing its copper output to the market.
Though unfortunate for those killed and hurt in this accident, production was
soon after brought back up to speed and similar to the Chile turmoil this summer,
copper prices were sustained and continued to shoot higher.
The anomalous events in Indonesia and Chile did not artificially inflate copper
prices as analysts had feared. The upward trends were in force and it was becoming
apparent that global inventories were dwindling and an economic imbalance was
occurring. Until there is equilibrium in global supply and demand, copper prices
will remain high and most likely move even higher.
Now as stock investors, how can we take advantage of the copper bull market
and leverage some of our capital? Well just like our usual suspects of gold,
silver and oil, we trade the stocks of its producers. Fortunately there are
quite a few copper producers that are publicly traded in the stock markets.
Just like most metal producers, copper producers are highly leveraged to the
fluctuation of the underlying metal price. For all intents and purposes, their
operating expenses remain the same in pulling the copper from the ground regardless
of the price they can sell it for. The higher the price they are able get on
the open market, the higher their profits. In the last couple of years copper
producers have been making barrels of money as prices have risen, and to this
point their stock prices have reflected such.
Since 2001, the top four copper producers trading on the American stock exchanges
have averaged bull-to-date gains in excess of 450%, with some of the smaller
miners doing just as well if not better. As copper prices continue to rise,
so will the stock market gains of its producers.
In addition to their leverage to the price of copper, copper producing companies
have further benefits that help their bottom-line in this commodities bull
market. When copper is mined, the ore it comes from usually contains precious-metal
byproducts.
Many large copper mines around the world have significant amounts of gold
and silver byproducts in their ores. From an accounting standpoint they will
either book it as separate revenue or bundle it with their copper using the
PM revenue to reduce the overall operating expenses of their copper. Either
way, with the performance of gold and silver thus far, it proves to be a major
boost to these companies' profits.
There are two key ingredients that go into choosing the companies in which
to invest your hard-earned capital. First is timing, and second are the fundamentals
of the individual companies. Both of these ingredients take much time and research.
Timing the deployment of capital involves analyzing the fundamental and technical
trends of the copper market. If you are trading for the long term then it is
simplest to buy on the dips and ride out the copper bull. If you are more of
a short-term or momentum player, then a little bit more goes into your entry
and exit points.
Picking the individual companies that are best positioned to leverage the
price of copper involves legwork as well. Of course there are always the biggest
and best blue-chip producers, but opportunities also abound in the intermediate
and smaller miners and explorers. Like the gold
market, extreme caution and prudence need to be taken in choosing these
smaller companies.
All signs point towards the probability of a continued bull run in copper
in the years to come. At Zeal we are diligently researching investment and
speculation opportunities for our newsletter subscribers
in order to take advantage of current market conditions.
Please subscribe today and
ride this commodities bull with us as we provide our subscribers with cutting-edge
analysis and stock picks not only for the copper market, but gold, silver,
oil and many other commodities that stock investors crave.
The bottom line is this reddish metal we call copper continues to show future
promise in this exciting secular bull market. Global inventories are down and
demand is up as the world economy grows.
Whereas in the 1980s and 1990s commodities producers, including copper, were
the black plague of stock investing, today's commodities bull presents a high
probability of bringing legendary gains to prudent investors and speculators.