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November 08, 2005

The Past is Prologue
by Douglas R. Gillespie

A Gillespie Research Associates guest article by Gordon Lamb, President, American Asset Management.

Summary

In his intriguing stock-market article entitled, "The Past Is Prologue," author Gordon Lamb, president of American Asset Management Group, Inc. writes:

"What's up with this stock market? This is the question most often asked when a market trades in a narrow range for an extended period."

Gordon goes on to opine:

"There is much to learn from studying the past. Applying it to our advantage becomes the real challenge. This becomes important because as we look at our present situation, we find many similar patterns between the past and the present. From our studies, we have concluded that we are in a secular bear market that was born in January of 2000. So where [in the secular bear] are we?

"Reaching back in time, we know that the first cycle was down and ended in 2002. We know that the first reverse cycle, a bull cycle, started before year-end of 2002 and began to fizzle out early in 2005. We strongly suspect that the DJIA is at or past the top and headed down for the second bear cycle within the secular bear."

In this undertaking, Gordon Lamb calls upon some valuable historical work on past market cycles as well as his own 39 years of firsthand experience to produce an article that not only is very interesting, it also is highly informative. Continue to Gillespie Research for the balance of the essay: http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=701.

Douglas R. Gillespie, Sr.
Gillespie Research Associates
165 Sheridan Avenue
HO-HO-KUS, NJ 07423
201-447-5743

Doug Gillespie oversees his own financial-market and economic consulting firm, Gillespie Research Associates. For a complimentary sample of Dougs material, e-mail him at drgillespiesr@aol.com.

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