Investors are finally just starting to heed the cry of the watchmen. The
commodities bull hath cometh, the commodities bull hath cometh! As a
long-time proselytizer of the Great
Commodities Bull, I'm sure having fun watching commodities storm the
streets while gaining increasing exposure from the mainstream financial media.
And in this process drawing in more and more capital on the investment and
speculation front.
Though still likely in the first half of a secular bull run that will eventually
capture everybody's attention as it matures, commodities are becoming
a growing part of portfolios of all types from individual to institutional.
And as the performances of most commodities blaze higher, it is hard not to
do a double-take when looking at their beautiful charts.
And it is simple fundamentals that drive these secular price movements. More
and more people are starting to recognize that it will likely take a decade
for the economic imbalances commodities are experiencing to come to center.
So in an environment where rising prices are near imminent, why not ride the
trend and make some money on it?
But up until recently in order to invest directly in commodities, other than
taking physical possession of them, you had to either be a sophisticated and
risk-tolerant futures trader or take part in a handful of funds that tracked
various futures-based indexes. And even though individual-stock picking continues
to provide the best leverage and opportunities to multiply one's capital, the
risks are deemed simply too high and not yet justified for many of the newly
inducted commodities faithful that are cautiously but optimistically increasing
their exposure in this sector.
Indirect investment into commodities as mentioned above can be achieved by
investing and speculating in the stock market in the companies that explore,
develop, service and produce commodities. We have been doing this for many
years at Zeal with great success.
But for the average investor who is not yet up to the task of investing into
individual companies, is not interested in futures, is not connected or does
not want to pay to get into exclusive funds and does not have the capacity
or capital to store say one contract of aluminum (44,000 pounds) or one contract
of corn (5,000 bushels) in their back yard, how else does one broadly, directly
and easily invest in the commodities market?
In comes the almighty ETF. Exchange Traded Funds have hit the floor running
in recent years and are now giving investors and speculators the opportunity
to "buy the market" in a multitude of sectors. Hundreds of billions of dollars
of assets are now housed within ETFs and capital is flooding into them today
at a much faster rate than the conventional and much-loved mutual funds.
Even though the first successful ETF originated in Canada on the Toronto Stock
Exchange, Spiders (SPY), Diamonds (DIA) and Cubes (QQQQ) brought ETFs to widespread
popularity in America as they gave investors and speculators the opportunity
to easily bet for or against the Big Three of the general markets.
And because of this popularity, hundreds of ETFs have since come to market
with hundreds more on the way. It is fair to say there is somewhat of an ETF
craze happening today as new markets continue to open up for the average stock
investor. There are countless benefits to ETFs that I can't cover today, but
perhaps most important to consider is the fact that investors can now build
a truly diversified portfolio solely from ETFs.
And some newer ETFs are actually starting to cater to the non-conventional
stock-market investors. One of the most popular and fastest-growing ETFs today
is the Euro Currency Trust (FXE). FXE is a popular choice among American investors
who not only use it for income distribution to take advantage of euro currency
rates, but use it as a hedge against the weakening dollar.
FXE doesn't have much to do with commodities per se, but I think it's amazing
that the average stock investor is essentially now able to take part in the
currency markets with each FXE share representing €100. Currency trading
has the reputation of being one of the most complicated, difficult and risky
markets to trade right up there with commodities futures. And outside of one's
important gold investment to
hedge the growing risk of weakening fiat, now investors who wish to protect
the cash portion of their investments from the bleeding dollar might perhaps
find a place of refuge in the FXE.
Also growing popular, especially from a contrarian perspective, are the single-country
ETFs that invest in a foreign stock market or a basket of foreign stocks. These
can serve as not only a foreign or emerging market investment, but also as
a dollar hedge because the funds are calculated in the local currency and then
converted back to the dollar. And for the fearless ones that want to take part
in the growing real estate bubble, REIT ETFs are also on the menu.
Now with commodities gaining popularity, new-to-the-market commodities-specific
ETFs are attracting crowds. The introduction of these ETFs has opened up a
whole new dimension of investing and provides the average investor an opportunity
to easily take part in various sectors of this secular bull market in commodities.
Some of these ETFs focus on tracking specific commodities, such as the streetTRACKS
Gold Trust Shares (GLD), the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and the U.S.
Oil Fund (USO). Each of these ETFs is designed to track the performance of
the underlying commodity it represents giving investors a measurably easy
way to take advantage of the secular uptrend of certain major commodities.
And all this without having to open a futures trading account.
Commodities ETFs have come to market with much praise, and of course some
scrutiny, for a variety of reasons. But regardless of how vocal the yeas and
nays are in tussling this out, the result is not only better exposure for commodities,
but an easy way for mainstream investors to diversify their portfolios into
the natural resources that keep the global economy moving. And the simplicity
of these ETFs is just magical. Adding an ETF to one's portfolio requires the
same trivial effort as purchasing any other stock in your trading account.
All you have to know is the symbol and you are golden.
But the commodities ETFs mentioned above still did not solve the greater dilemma.
How can the average stock investor take part in the broad commodities
sector? Investors that do not have the time, resources or wherewithal to focus
on individual commodities were still finding it difficult to access this type
of investment vehicle.
At Zeal one of our favorite commodities indexes that serves this purpose is
the venerable CRB Commodities Index. The CRB is an excellent proxy for the
commodities markets as a whole and we've written many times about its fundamental
and technical usefulness. But it's not easy to directly invest in the CRB if
you are not a futures trader. Wouldn't it be neat if you could just buy the
CRB like any other stock or ETF in your brokerage account?
The CRB happens to be one of about half-a-dozen commodities indexes out there.
Commodities indexes are based on futures prices for the given commodities in
which they are invested and have become very popular in recent years as institutional
dollars have diversified away from stocks and bonds. Because of the popularity
of these indexes, the futures markets have become more liquid as the indexes
constantly invest incoming capital and continually roll over near-term futures
contracts.
Most of these indexes weight their portfolios across many different commodities
classes in order to reduce risk and gain broad exposure. And the CRB, as with
these other indexes, has performed very well in this bull market. Its gains
in recent years compared to other sectors have been outstanding. The CRB has
doubled since 2001 and investors ranging from retail mutual funds to giant
pensions are jumping aboard hoping to ride the secular nature of this bull.
Though these indexes have been popular, the average individual investor has
still been somewhat left out, until just recently. One of these elite commodities
indexes is the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index. In February the American
Stock Exchange listed a tracking fund to mirror this index bringing a whole
new style to ETFs. Under the symbol DBC, this ETF is designed to reflect the
performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index.
DBC provides excellent exposure to commodities and is the first of its kind
to be traded in the American stock markets. Most ETFs track a specific stock
or bond index. And the gold and silver ETFs give investors a different look
by actually backing the funds' capital with the storage of the physical metal.
But DBC is actually based on futures contracts for the basket of commodities
that comprise it. It is designed so investors can have cheap and convenient
investment access to a broad selection of commodities futures.
This is a dream come true for many investors and speculators who have always
been leery of opening up a futures trading account. Futures trading is very
intimidating for the average investor and comes with its share of risks. With
DBC anybody can now access, of course indirectly, the commodities futures markets.
And they can do it with the ease, flexibility and comfort of trading in the
stock market.
DBC is managed like the elite commodities indexes mentioned above. The fund
is backed by futures contracts that are continually rolled to longer-dated
contracts so it never has to take delivery on a commodity. DBC is a little
more complicated than your typical ETF that tracks stocks or bonds though as
it is quite the task flipping futures contracts and obtaining the best roll
yield. When futures prices are lower than spot, backwardation occurs and positive
roll yields are achieved. But when futures prices are higher than spot a negative
roll yield, also called contango, occurs. So the fund managers really need
to stay on top of this type of ETF in order to maximize the benefits it provides.
Now one of the reasons we like the CRB so much is because of its broad mix
of commodities. In this secular commodities bull market, other than some of
the government-subsidized grains, all commodities should thrive. And as mentioned
previously, the CRB serves as an excellent proxy for the progress and health
of the general commodities bull.
Though I would have much rather seen a CRB-mirrored ETF hit the markets, DBC
will likely serve us fine for now. But to make sure of this why not compare
the two visually and compare their makeup. As a commodities investor who has
long trusted the history and performance of the CRB, let's see how the DBC
stacks up against it.

As is apparent in this chart, the brief history the DBC ETF provides shows
there to indeed be a strong correlation between the CRB and the Deutsche Bank
Liquid Commodity Index. Even the minor technical noise visually appears to
be closely correlated. Since the inception of the DBC, it has had a strong
correlation with the CRB of 0.967 with an r-square of 94%. So 94% of the daily
behavior of the DBC can be statistically explained or predicted by the CRB,
not bad.
Now since the CRB and DBC have such a strong correlation, their composition
should be similar right? Well, even though they are both indexes that are comprised
of a basket of commodities futures contracts designed to reflect the greater
commodities markets, there are actually quite a few differences.
The Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index is annually rebalanced to reflect
its composition of only 6 commodities. The index is heavily weighted in energy
with crude oil comprising 35% and heating oil 20%. Metals bring its hard
commodity weight to a hefty 77.5% with aluminum at 12.5% and gold at 10%.
Corn and wheat round out this index, each weighted at 11.25%.
Meanwhile the CRB index is comprised of more than three times as many commodities
as the DBC. The pie charts below show these commodities and their weightings
for each respective index. And as you can see the CRB provides a wide assortment
of commodities ranging from orange juice to hogs to nickel. In looking at the
CRB it is apparent that it provides a broad range of commodities that seem
to capture the essence of the general commodities markets.

With an initial glance it may seem surprising that with the composition of
these two indexes seemingly so different that their correlation can be so close.
Yet the correlation starts to make sense when you take a closer look at the
top-heavy commodities in each index. Both are very heavy in energy and metals.
It is no wonder why these seemingly lopsided weightings exist. Energy and
metals have indeed been the driving force of this commodities bull thus far.
The vast difference in fundamentals between finite hard commodities and non-finite
soft commodities has caused supply-starved energy and metals to greatly soar.
And because of the increasing importance they play in the global economy, energy
and metals heavily weight the CRB comprising 59% of its index while the DBC
has a massive 77.5% weighted towards these sectors.
At the announcement of the DBC launch, the Global Head of Commodities at Deutsche
Bank stated, "DBC is designed for investors seeking portfolio diversification
and exposure to global commodity returns, which have one of the lowest correlations
to US equities and bonds. This platform will provide investors with systematic
exposure to global commodities without the complication and difficulty of investing
directly in futures contracts or in the commodities themselves."
These comments provide legitimate and reasonable arguments for any investor
to add commodities to their portfolio. But to me it lacks a certain bullish
exuberance I believe is warranted due to the incredible opportunities for growth
a secular bull market in commodities has to offer.
When people look back on today's markets in the future, commodities will likely
have been the stalwart of the entire global financial markets earning their
investors fortunes. Don't be fooled by the fading cry of the other watchmen.
Commodities are not just an inflation hedge as mainstream analysts will
have you believe.
And though commodities are a good hedge to underperforming stocks and bonds
right now, it is important for investors to understand that there is a bigger
picture involved in the push toward this "alternate" asset class. In a time
where the general markets are likely to be stuck in at least another decade
of sideways trading at
best, the fundamentals of once-underperforming and unloved commodities will
likely continue to propel them in this glorious bull market that should last
at least another decade.
The structural supply deficit especially in the energy and metals commodities
cannot be quickly remedied. And other than increasing supply to meet fast growing
demand, rising prices are ultimately the economic force that will close the
gap of this imbalance. So with commodities looking to be the asset class most
likely to make investors money in the coming years, DBC provides excellent
exposure on this front and can be an important stepping stone for a massive
influx of new commodities investors in the years to come.
Ultimately exchange traded funds are simple and easy-to-use tools for investors
to perform index investing, or buying the market. And thanks to DBC and various
other commodity-specific ETFs, commodities are becoming more accessible for
the next group of investors and speculators that will pour their capital into
the still-lesser-known-but-growing commodities markets.
And as new investors get more comfortable trading commodities, simple diversification
will not be enough. Market gyrations can be profitable and fun to trade even
in ETFs, especially since margin and options are allowed. But the best and
most exciting positive leverage to rising commodities still lies in stock picking.
This is where the legendary gains have and will be made in a secular bull market.
The stocks of the companies that are involved in the life cycle of a given
commodity are primed to make incredible profits as their underlying commodities
thrive in the markets. Though this only includes hard commodities as farmers
are typically not publicly traded, the hards are what drive the markets, so
this is just fine.
Gold is a prime example of this situation. The actual metal traded in the
futures markets is up an excellent 183% as of its recent bull-to-date high,
yet the venerable HUI gold-stock index, which is comprised of the best of the
best publicly traded gold producers, is up nearly 1,000% in this same period
of time. This should tell you a couple of things. First, commodities, in particular
gold, are hot and where the excitement is happening. And second, the amazing
gains are won in the individual stocks of the companies that bring it to market.
At Zeal we focus on such leveraged investment and speculation as mentioned
above and look for the best of the best companies that mine, drill and explore
for these increasingly valuable commodities. These companies not only have
the potential to provide excellent long-term growth, but if played correctly
can serve as highly profitable near-term tactical speculations.
Within a strategic upward trend, tactical movements indeed provide exciting
opportunities for speculators. Each commodity class may show strength at various
times, and if you can catch the interim swings in the right direction, exceptional
gains can be made. We have been trading the precious metals, base metals and
energy swings with excellent realized gains and are always excited for the
next opportunity to further deploy as our research and technicals dictate.
Our renowned Zeal Intelligence and Zeal
Speculator newsletters disseminate this cutting-edge technical analysis
and time leveraged commodities-stock and option trades for our subscribers.
In addition to this we also publish occasional supplemental Reports of
our favorite stocks in a given sector that are primed to thrive with their
underlying commodities. Join
us today as we ride the bull higher.
The bottom line is commodities are starting to gain the necessary exposure
they are due as this bull gathers strength for its run even higher. The ever-powerful
ETFs are allowing investors and speculators to ease into the commodities front
and diversify their typical stock and bond portfolios. And it's the exciting
ETFs coming to market including the brand new DBC index tracking fund and the
GDX gold-miners index paving the way.
This exposure will continue to lift commodities as a sector as more and more
capital flows into this asset class which will in turn thrust the bull even
higher. Legendary gains should continue to be won by investing and speculating
in the stocks of the companies with the best leverage to profit from the rise
in commodities prices.