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American political history has repeated itself again. Since World War II,
whichever political party controlled the White House during mid-term Elections
has lost an average of 6 Senate seats and 30 seats in the House of Representatives.
On November 7th, it was the Republicans' turn to endure a thumping, losing
control of Congress to the Democrats for the first time since 1994.
The Democrats' 51-49 majority in the Senate was the result of the narrowest
of victories in Montana and Virginia. Had 10,000 votes flipped, the Senate
would be in the hands of the GOP by a 51-49 margin. Futures traders at Tradesports.com
were stunned by the results. From January thru September, the odds of a GOP
controlling the Senate at the online betting parlor ranged from 75% to 90%.
On election eve, the odds were 73 percent, before crashing to zero the next
day.
Traders betting on a GOP victory in the Senate had good reason to take the
73% odds. A few days earlier, US Labor Apparatchniks had revised their originally
reported 128,000 increase in August payrolls into a gain of 230,000 jobs, and
September's 51,000 increase was tripled to a 148,000 gain. The change for the
two months combined was the biggest upward revision since July and August 2000.
That sent the US jobless rate 0.2% lower to 4.4% of the workforce, a 5-year
low.

However, the glowing jobs report, a 12,000+ Dow Jones Industrials, inflated
401-k's, and an 86 cents per gallon plunge in gasoline prices since August,
could not brainwash enough US voters on Election Day. The GOP had wandered
too far from its commitment 12-years ago to clean up corruption, shrink the
federal government and slash irresponsible spending. Anger about America's
war in Iraq, and frustration with the President Bush's trade polices with China,
trumped the doctored employment stats and the wealth generated on Wall Street.
The initial reaction on Wall Street to the Democratic sweep was muted, with
the Dow Jones Industrials ending 1% higher, while Treasury notes gained a half-point.
Yet there were notable movements in the foreign exchange and precious metals
markets. The Euro briefly jumped to as high as $1.2900, and the dollar skidded
to a 9-year low of 928-Korean won. In a knee-jerk reaction, Gold soared by
$20 per ounce to as high as $635/oz on Nov 8th and silver jumped above $13
per ounce.
Saudi Princes Rattled by Democrats, Shifting into Gold
Saudi princes, who control 70% of the stock market in Riyadh have been bailing
out of local stocks and moving funds into Gold since early October. The Saudi
elite are worried that Democrats could hasten an American withdrawal from Iraq.
Defense chief Donald Rumsfeld's departure could well be a first move in that
direction. Signaling a broad shift in his Iraq policy, President Bush on Nov
11th described his new pick for defense secretary, Robert Gates, as an "agent
of change."
The Democratic chairman, Howard Dean, says Congress will keep up the pressure
for change in Iraq. "Americans across the country made it clear that they want
a new direction in Iraq and in the war on terror." A Newsweek poll showed that
48% of registered US voters would generally like to see a Democrat elected
to the White House in 2008, compared to 28% who want a Republican, scaring
jittery Persian Gulf kingdoms that depend upon US military protection.
"The first order of business is to change the direction of Iraq policy," said
Sen. Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat who is expected to be the next chairman
of the Senate Armed Services Committee. "The American presence was not open-ended,
and that, as a matter of fact, we need to begin a phased redeployment of forces
from Iraq in four to six months," Levin said on ABC's "This Week" program on
Nov 12th.
The man who is about to be isolated in the White House is Vice President Dick
Cheney, the last neo-con left. Robert Gates, James Baker, and Brent Scowcroft,
have been called in for strategy on exiting Iraq over the objections of VP
Cheney. But an abandoned Iraq could be seen as a major victory for Islamic
insurgents, embolden Iranian and Syrian kingpins, lead to a full-blown civil
war in Iraq, and future al-Qaeda or Hizbollah attempts to overthrow the Saudi
kingdom.
Saudi Arabia's interior minister on Nov 12th called Iraq a major base for
terrorism, a sign of growing concerns in the oil-rich kingdom over its violence-plagued
neighbor. "There is no doubt that Iraq now forms a main base for terrorism," said
Saudi Interior Minister Prince Naif. "The situation in Iraq is deteriorating
daily, and the country has become a threat in the region," he warned.

While stock markets around the world are standing at 5-year or new record
highs, Saudi blue chips plunged to the 8000 level on Nov 11th, their lowest
close in almost 20-months. The sudden collapse below the psychological 10,000
level, sent shockwaves through other Gulf bourses where investors are nervous
over Iran's escalating nuclear weapons program, the Shiite revolution moving
across the Middle East, and the slide of OPEC's benchmark oil price to below
$60 a barrel.
Since October 29th, the Saudi All-share Index has plunged 25%, and the average
P/E has fallen to 14 from around 40 times earnings at its peak in February.
New listings in Saudi Arabia are also taking a hit as the Arab world's largest
stock market posts its sharpest decline since losing half of its capitalization
between February and May during a region-wide stock market crash.
Proving its mettle as a safe haven in dangerous times, gold has climbed steadily
against the price of OPEC's benchmark crude oil prices from 8.75 barrels in
early August to a high of 11.5 barrel last week. Gold traders in London, New
York, and Tokyo, have noticed that gold diverged from its tight linkage to
the crude oil market over the past few weeks, and the phenomena might have
its origin in the Gulf.

Abu Dubai's stock index fell below the 400-level to its lowest close in nearly
two years as investors sold shares in the largest companies across the Gulf
in response to a slump in Saudi Arabia. Qatar's market fell to its lowest close
since Jan 2005, after Iran's Revolutionary Guards fired missiles into Gulf
waters. "We have improved the range of our missiles to 170 kilometres (105
miles). This will bring the entire Persian Gulf from the Straits of Hormuz
and most of the Sea of Oman within range," said Revolutionary Guards naval
chief General Ali Fadavi.
Iran said it fired its longer-range Shahab-3 ballistic missile for the first
time, which has a range of up to 2,000 kilometres (1,200 miles), sufficient
to threaten US bases in the Gulf, Tel-Aviv, and parts of Eastern Europe. The
next day, on November 4th, six Arab states including Algeria, Egypt, Morocco,
Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and the UAE said they want to acquire the technology
to unlock the secrets to the atomic bomb.
The specter of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is linked to the failure
of Europe and Washington to adopt any meaningful measures that can block Tehran
from acquiring nuclear weapons. Also, does the recent collapse of Saudi's stock
index represent expectations of another big slide in global oil prices in the
months ahead? Or perhaps, a general lack of transparency and liquidity, a market
that is closed to outside investors, and a dependence on hot money from royal
princes?
What's Behind the Plunge in Oil prices?
Weighing on oil prices, US crude inventories are 16.3 million barrels above
year-ago levels while heating oil supplies are 18.1 million barrels higher.
On October 25th, British Petroleum said its recoverable oil reserves in the
Caspian Sea had risen to 6.5 billion barrels from 5.4 billion. The Caspian
fields are the main source of crude for the BP-led Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, which
will eventually pump more than 1 million bpd from Azerbaijan to the Turkish
Mediterranean coast in 2007.
Still, nearly three-quarters of the $20 per barrel plunge in oil prices was
linked to the evaporation of the Iranian "war premium", after traders gave
up on ideas of a US or Israeli air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. UN
Security Council members have been dithering for months over divisions over
a text, calling for sanctions against Iran, with no agreement in sight. Bush
toned down his war mongering rhetoric with Tehran after the Hizbollah-Israeli
war in Lebanon, helping to unwind the "fear factor" that inflated $15 per barrel
into oil prices earlier this year.

Futures traders at Tradesports.com have progressively lowered the odds of
an air-strike against Iran's nuclear facilities before March 31st, 2007, from
a high of 43% in December 2005 to a new low of 8% last week. In the aftermath
of the Democratic sweep of Congress, the odds of an air strike against Iran's
nukes by the end of 2007 are bid at 20.5 percent. In a world with industrial
economies increasingly dependent on oil imports, Tehran can flex its muscles
as a major oil producer and its control of the Strait of Hormuz, fending off
ideas of a military solution.
Are Israel and Iran on a Collision course to full scale War?
In the Middle East, the enemy of your enemy is your friend. On September 29th,
the Israeli Yediot Achronot newspaper reported that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
had held a secret meeting with Saudi Prince Bandar in Jordan. Yediot said Israel
and Saudi Arabia had been holding secret talks since fighting erupted in July
between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, due to Saudi Arabia's realization
that a nuclear Iran, which backs and funds Hezbollah, was capable of destabilizing
the Middle East.
Israel and the Arab oil kingdoms in the Gulf are deeply worried that US President
George W. Bush is shrinking into a lame duck and won't confront Iran in the
final years of his presidency. On November 9th, Israeli deputy Defense Minister
Ephraim Sneh said that "Israel must be ready to prevent Iran's nuclear program
at all costs. Israel cannot afford living under a dark cloud of fear from a
leader committed to its destruction. International sanctions against Iran won't
succeed. My top priority is preparing Israel for victory in the next round
with Iran and its proxies."
On Nov 11th, Israel PM Ehud Olmert compared the threat posed by Iran achieving
nuclear weapons technology to that of Nazi Germany. "Ahmadinejad is a man who
is ready to commit crimes against humanity, and he has to be stopped. I don't
believe that Iran will accept a compromise unless they have a very good reason
to fear the consequences of not reaching it. It is absolutely intolerable for
Israel to accept the threat of a nuclear Iran. Israel has many options," Olmert
told Newsweek.
Then on Nov 12th, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Hosseni called
Olmert's bluff. "Israel does not have the means or the capability to dare threaten
Iran. If the Zionist regime commits such a stupidity, the Islamic republic
and its defenders will give a swift, strong and crushing response. Iran will
take no longer than a second to respond," Mohammed Ali Hosseini warned.
The war of words escalated again on November 13th, when Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel is destined for destruction and will soon disappear. "The
world's powers had created the Zionist regime to increase their dominance in
the Middle East. But Israel is a contradiction to nature, and we foresee its
rapid disappearance and destruction," Ahmadinejad declared.

Should traders bet on a big skirmish between Israel and Iran that could send
crude oil and gold soaring higher and global stock markets tumbling? In the
Middle East, surprise attacks against one's enemies usually occur without warning.
When Mid-East leaders pre-broadcast hostile intent to the media, the threats
usually are scare tactics, and nothing more than propaganda or empty threats.
That's the working assumption on the Tel-Aviv stock exchange, where the top-25
blue-chip index climbed to a record high of 930 points, an increase of 20%
since the August cease-fire with the Iranian Shiite militia Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Foreign investment into Israel for the first 10 months of 2006 has reached
a record $17.1 billion, an increase of 72% compared with all of 2005. The Israeli
shekel has risen 7% against the US dollar since April and remains stable against
the Euro.
Thus, Tel-Aviv stock traders are in complete agreement with futures traders
at tradesport.com, and see little likelihood of an Israeli or US attack on
Iran's nukes anytime soon. Yet the Saudi royal family and other kingdoms in
the Persian Gulf see matters differently, and are deeply worried about a break-up
of Iraq from a hasty US withdrawal, and might explain the latest surge in Gold
above $600/oz.
Beijing Disturbed by Democrats, Signals shift from US$
Democrats are likely to take aim at China's mushrooming trade surplus with
the US, which has skyrocketed from $4 million per month in 1976 to $4 billion
per week in 2006. There could be greater Congressional pressure on Beijing
to push up the value of the yuan against the US dollar, putting China's portfolio
of $700 billion of US bonds at risk from currency devaluation.
On October 31st, Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton suggested US efforts to
get China to move toward a more flexible exchange rate has been frustrated
by the leverage given to the Chinese through their huge ownership of US Treasury
debt. "How do you get tough on your banker? We have to hope every morning that
Beijing and other nations will continue to buy our debt instruments. The trade
deficits with China give the US a weakened hand in global trade and economic
diplomacy."
On November 4th, Senator Jack Reed (D-RI), the ranking Democrat on the JEC,
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), Senior House Democrat on the JEC, and Rep. Barney
Frank (D-MA), ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, released
the report, "Relying on the Kindness of Strangers: Foreign Purchases of US
Treasury Debt." Key findings from the study include the following:

"At the end of fiscal year 2005, 42.1% of the public debt of the United States
was held by foreigners. That foreign ownership share rose by 11.8% just since
2001 and will be higher still when the data for 2006 are released. Foreign
ownership of Treasury securities more than doubled from $1.0 trillion in January
2001 to $2.2 trillion in August 2006. China's holdings rose 450% to $339 billion.
The OPEC nations have doubled their holdings to over $100 billion in the past
two years."
"If the United States does not begin to take steps to reduce its unsustainable
dependence on foreign borrowing in an orderly way, there could be a run on
the US dollar and that could precipitate an international financial crisis
and a sharp increase in interest rates," the report warned.
Trying to pre-empt a Democratic showdown on China's $210 billion per year
trade surplus with the US, Beijing issued a veiled threat that it might stop
buying US bonds, thus exerting upward pressure on US mortgage rates and downward
pressure on US home prices. "China has a clear plan to diversify its $1 trillion
foreign exchange reserves and is considering various options to do so," warned
Chinese central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan on Nov 9th.
Zhou's signal of a possible shift away from US dollars was in quick reaction
to harsh rhetoric from Rep. Charles Rangel, a New York Democrat, who wants
to get tougher on trade with China. "I don't think the Bush administration
has taken up any trade issue with the Chinese. We should insist if they are
going to trade with us it's going to be fair trade. We have to protect American
jobs," he said. Under the Bush administration's trade policies, 3.1 million
US manufacturing jobs have been lost.

"Diversification includes currencies, investment instruments, including emerging
markets," Zhou warned the next day. Asked if Beijing is buying gold, Zhou would
only say, "That's a separate thing." Within minutes of Zhou's threats, the
British pound and Euro rose to the upper end of their six month trading ranges
last week, and gold soared $20 per ounce to as high as $635/oz, with silver
above $13/oz.
At the end of 2005, central banks held FX reserves of around $3.5 trillion,
with 15% invested in gold. Gold accounted for 70% of US reserves, 50% of ECB
reserves, 40% held by Switzerland, 4% by India, 2% by Japan, and around 1%
by Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Korea or Malaysia. The big players are China and
Japan which hold a combined $1.9 trillion of FX reserves, followed by Russia's
$265 billion.
In the 1990's, the prevailing question was, what if European central banks
reduce their gold holdings to 10% of their reserves? Now, the question is what
if Asian central banks increase their holdings to 10% of their reserves? said
Philipp M. Hildebrand, member of the Swiss National Bank, on June 26th, 2006.
But to what extent would the People's Bank of China shift into other currencies
or gold, while shunning the US dollar, given its dependence on exports to the
US to keep its economy humming at 10% per year?
Central Bankers to Resist Gold's Advance
Gold's latest surge from as low as $560 per ounce on October 6th, to as high
as $635 per ounce on November 8th, disturbs central bankers in Japan and Europe.
They don't want to see gold become a one-way bet to the upside that could signal
higher global inflation on the horizon. The first line of defense against gold's
advance is "Jawboning." The second option is European central bank gold sales.
The third and least palatable option is higher short-term interest rates.
With gold reaching 75,000 yen per ounce in Tokyo on November 8th, Bank of
Japan chief Toshihiko Fukui signaled the central bank would have to adjust
rates "gradually and not too early, and not too late", based on economic and
price conditions. "Waiting for inflation to build up in raising interest rates
would cause sharp swings in the economy. Our task is to carefully take action
before these conditions appear in order to achieve price stability and keep
future economic swings gradual."
"Unexpected risks could arise in the area of asset prices as well as capital
spending if the BOJ keeps monetary conditions too loose by being complacent
about the economy," Fukui told a financial seminar in Tokyo. Fukui is trying
to lay the ground work for a quarter-point rate hike to 0.50% in Q'1 of 2007,
but much political wrangling with the inflationist regime of PM Shinzo Abe
lies ahead.

Kozo Yamamoto, Japan's minister of economy, trade and industry, spoke out
against the BOJ's plans on October 31st, "Nowhere can we see signs of inflation,
and considering that consumer prices could turn negative any time, there is
no reason for talk of a BOJ rate hike. With the US economy slowing and domestic
price growth showing no sign of accelerating, the central bank's next move
should be to lower, not raise, its policy target rate," argued Yamamoto.
Tokyo does not want to pay higher interest rates on new debt offerings slated
for fiscal 2007/08 estimated at 27 trillion yen ($230 billion). "I believe
Japan has yet to come out of deflation," said Shoichi Nakagawa, the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party policy chief on Nov 13th. "I'm against the BOJ raising
rates. Given the state of the Japanese economy, talking of a rate hike is absurd," he
said.
But the BOJ is also under heavy pressure to hike its overnight loan rate from
European finance ministers, who are criticizing the yen's weakness against
the Euro, from the widening of interest rate differential between Japan and
the Euro zone. That puts European exporters at a big disadvantage in world
markets. The Euro's interest rate advantage over the yen has widened by 108
basis points to 3.18% from a year ago, helping to guide the Euro to an 8-year
high of 150.60 yen.

Mizuno warned that unwinding Japan's ultra-low interest rate structure would
have a decisive impact on short-term carry trades and global capital flows. "If
the BOJ's future interest rate hike is taken as a surprise move while the United
States and major European nations enter their final phase of monetary policy
normalization, it could heighten volatility not only in Japan but in global
financial markets. That is why maintaining dialogue with the market becomes
even more important."
ECB Disturbed by Gold's Surge to 500 Euros/oz
With gold surging 10% from its October 3rd low to as high as 495 Euros/oz,
Bundesbank chief Axel Weber began a Jawboning stint, and said inflation in
the Euro zone was likely to pose a risk in 2007. "Economic growth has an increasingly
strong foundation. Therefore, we must ask ourselves whether the current stimulation
of growth through monetary policy is still needed in 2007," he said.
Weber said the recent retreat of Euro zone inflation was transitory, adding
that there could be no talk of lasting relief. "The possibility that energy
prices can climb again and continued strong credit growth to business are among
several risks that the inflation rate will certainly lie above 2% again," Weber
said. "It's a signal that I find alarming, in particular when mirrored against
strong money and credit dynamics."

On October 26th, ECB member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said there is a lesson to
be learned from the recent round of global rate hikes. "It would appear that
in spite of the recent interest rate increases in the three largest areas,
that monetary conditions have remained significantly expansionary, as confirmed
by the ample liquidity conditions prevailing at the global level," he said.
"When embarking on rate hikes, a central bank should not wait for inflation
to appear, and the lower the starting point for rates, the less it can afford
to wait for confirmation of ongoing recovery. This would clearly imply falling
behind the curve and having to correct more sharply at a later stage with sharper
interest rate increases," Smaghi warned. Over the next seven days, 3 European
central banks sold gold for 101 million Euros, slowing the yellow metal's advance.
On Nov 13th, Spanish central banker Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said the ECB
was looking at rising house and share prices, and the explosive Euro money
supply and credit trends. "When rapid price growth of house and stock assets
coincide, there is an empirical association between this situation and inflationary
pressures in three or four years, it's not difficult to understand it's like
this," he said.
Swiss National Bank Signals higher rates
Swiss National Bank Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth warned on Nov 12th, that further
interest rate rises were in the pipeline to fight inflation due to a weak Swiss
franc against the Euro. "The weak franc influences the prices of imported goods.
We are therefore importing inflation and we have to watch that closely." Traders
expect a fifth consecutive increase in the SNB Libor rate target of 25 basis
points to 2.00% when it meets again on December 14th and another rise in March
2007.
"If we were to leave interest rates where they are in this period of good
business cycle development, we would have to expect inflation in the long term.
We thus have interest rate rises in the pipeline," Roth said. The SNB often
coordinates it rate adjustments with the European Central Bank, given the importance
of the Swiss franc / Euro exchange rate for Swiss exporters.

"If we were to leave interest rates where they are in this period of good
business cycle development, we would have to expect inflation in the long term.
We thus have interest rate rises in the pipeline," Roth said. The SNB often
coordinates its rate adjustments with the European Central Bank, given the
importance of the Swiss franc / Euro exchange rate for Swiss exporters.
The franc has depreciated against the Euro over the past two years. The franc
is still trading close to a 6-½ low of against the Euro, even after
the SNB raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.75 percent. The Swiss franc
is utilized as a carry trade currency, in which traders borrow in low-yielding
currencies, such as the yen and the Swiss franc, in order to fund investments
in higher-yielding assets or commodities.
Jawboning from Federal Reserve Officials
The Federal Reserve paused its 2-year rate hike campaign at 5.25% on August
8th, and has relied on other central banks to tighten their monetary policies
to keep global commodity inflation in check. In recent weeks, the Bank of Australia,
and the Bank of England, the ECB, have raised their rates by a quarter point.
The Bank of China raised its bank reserve requirements by 0.50% to 9.00% last
week, which would tie up about 150 billion yuan ($18 billion) in liquidity.
Now that crude oil prices are trying to stabilize near $60 per barrel, in
the wake of cutbacks in oil output by the OPEC cartel, Fed officials are jawboning
about a resurgence of inflation in 2007. Chicago Fed chief Moskow warned on
November 6th, "My current assessment is that the risk of inflation remaining
too high is greater than the risk of growth being too low. By my standards,
inflation has been too high, and more interest rate increases may be needed," he
said.
On October 30th, Richmond Federal chief Jeffrey Lacker sounded similar views. "The
US economy is resilient enough right now to withstand further tightening. The
longer inflation remains elevated, the more difficult it will be to bring it
back down. If the Fed allows inflation to remain above target for too long,
expectations could become tightly centered around a higher rate. This danger
is what prompted me to vote at recent FOMC meetings for tactics aimed at bringing
inflation down more rapidly."

But can the Fed go beyond the Jawboning phase and raise interest further to
combat the gold rally and rescue the US dollar? An outright decline in US housing
prices of about 5% next year would reduce housing wealth by more than $1 trillion,
and that could put a significant dent into consumer spending in 2007. Depending
on which estimate you accept, US consumers extracted about $550 billion through
cash-out refinancing against the inflated value of their homes in 2005.
The upcoming November 17th edition of Global Money Trends will examine
these questions and many other topics, with special analysis and future forecasts.
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