GOLD THOUGHTS: Gold is the one universal money, even more so than the dollar ever was. Massive
trade deficit of United States is spewing out of vast quantities of green paper
onto the world's markets. That action can only cause the global purchasing
power of U.S. dollar to further depreciate over time. Investors around continue
to swap those green pieces of paper for Gold. They have no choice. Supply of
green dollars is growing faster than the global pile of shiny Gold. In that
situation the only possibility is for the price of Gold to rise in dollar terms.
Last Friday, as is often the case, New York was able to push the price of
Gold down sharply. With investors around the world already home for the weekend
such is not an unusual event. Global investors returned on Monday and began
to correct Friday's action. Gold, in dollars, returned to above $650. For that
reason the charts continue to paint a lovely picture. Nothing but blue sky
above current prices. US$650 is slowly becoming a floor.
Lateral price action is slowly dissipating the over bought condition that
had existed. Such resting builds the fuel for the next rally. Above Gold's
current price is nothing but sunshine, not clouds of over head resistance to
retard its advance. Charts on Gold in other national monies also add to the
encouraging picture. Euro denominated Gold is holding above €500, an important
area of resistance. Movement above that level is an indication of strength
of global demand for Gold. Canadian $Gold is just shy of a cycle high, encouraging
investors there to move into Gold.
The G-7 meeting may be interesting. Many central banks acknowledge they own
too many dollars, but market analysts will continue to dismiss this serious
situation. Bankers will say, "I won't sell if you won't sell." Reply, "Trust
me, I won't sell." A cartel of trusting soles these central bankers
will claim to be. At the same time China will be bashed for not revaluing upward
the renminbi, while the Japanese will get a pass for their weak yen. The G-7
will continue a policy of benign neglect toward the dollar's situation. Inevitably,
the massive currency mismatch being created by the carry trade will force devaluation
of the dollar, and push Gold higher. Time and governments work in Gold's favor.
Historically, however, putting Gold into portfolios was made difficult by
the need to use the physical commodity. With the creation of Gold ETFs that
difficulty has been removed. A good idea would be research the many precious
metals related ETFs. GDX, the Gold stock ETF on the Amex, may be of interest
to some.
GOLD THOUGHTS come from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of The
Value View Gold Report, monthly, and Trading Thoughts, weekly.
To receive a trial subscription send a note to Ned at valueviewgoldreport@earthlink.net.