In the Olympics when the second-place finisher of an event steps up to the
podium to receive his silver medal, it is always overshadowed by the champion
of the event, the elite top finisher, the gold medalist. In the precious
metals realm this analogy holds all too true for the exposure, attention and
market that gold commands over silver.
Though I believe gold's dominance over silver is warranted for a variety of
reasons, silver embodies many of the same fundamental characteristics as gold
and indeed stands on its own two feet in its own bull market. Silver has and
will greatly reward investors and speculators that heed the call of this precious
metal.
And precious metals are indeed the ultimate commodities and have thrived since
the emergence of this commodities bull market. From trough to recent peak gold
has jumped a spectacular 181%. In this same time silver is up a breathtaking
272%!
With these excellent returns anyone trading in the physical metals has done
quite nicely over this time. But it is the stocks of the companies that explore,
develop and mine these metals that have really exhibited exceptional performance.
The mining stocks have been flying in response to the performance of
their products and their gains have well-outpaced the metals.
And since it is very likely that this commodities bull is not even to its
midpoint yet, there should be vastly more opportunities to profit on the mining
stocks. Gold-mining stocks have of course been the most popular within the
contrarian investment community and have exhibited amazing positive leverage
to the performance of their underlying metal thus far. Many gold stocks have
seen bull-to-date gains in excess of 1,000%!
With mining stocks going ballistic investors and speculators have been clamoring
for information that gives them a leg up on which companies are poised to thrive
today and tomorrow. There are countless hundreds of mining stocks to choose
from these days and it can be challenging to discern the winners from the losers.
At Zeal one of our lines of business that supplements our newsletter products
involves in-depth stock research that identifies what we think are some of
the best prospective companies in their particular sectors. Since we can't
pack all our findings into the newsletters, we publish supplemental research
reports that profile our favorite stocks in their respective groups.
These increasingly-popular reports have received excellent feedback and many
of the stocks have performed incredibly well since their release. But there
was a common appeal that kept coming across my desk. What about silver stocks?
Is Zeal shunning this important stock sector that seems to be unloved and underappreciated
by many stock analysts?
Of course not! It is true that our reports in the last year have focused on
gold and base metals stocks. But at Zeal we have been recommending silver stocks
to our newsletter subscribers since the beginning of this bull market and just
adore this precious metal. And as we have stated many times we believe that
the foundation of any investor's portfolio should include not only physical
gold but physical silver as well.
Silver stocks indeed headline our latest stock report, just released. And
though many silver stocks have performed remarkably well and in the same league
performance-wise as many of the gold and base metals stocks, the nature of
the silver-mining industry puts these stocks in a league of their own.
There are in fact many silver-mining companies vying for investor capital
today. But the process of mining for silver as a primary metal is actually
quite rare as compared to gold and base metals. In this essay I'd like to share
a little of what I've found in researching the silver stocks that has helped
me get a better grasp on the trends in this unique sector.
First it is important to understand silver's capital markets. Now though silver's
monetary value, store of wealth and industrial utility is indispensable, this
market is actually quite small compared to the other metals. As measured by
the dollar value of metals brought to market last year via mining, silver pales
in comparison to the other metals.
Using the daily average market price multiplied by annual production volume,
2006 gold sales from mining operations generated $48 billion in revenue. The
top three base metals by volume of aluminum, copper and zinc generated mining
revenues of $86 billion, $104 billion and $33 billion respectively. So with
2006 silver revenues in the neighborhood of only $7 billion, it now becomes
clear why silver mining is in the minor leagues when it comes to global metals
sales.
Another of silver's distinguishable characteristics that puts it in a league
of its own is what I call its "minority mineralization". A majority of global
mined silver each year comes from mines that are not primary silver mines.
In many of the larger producing "silver" mines, the silver actually serves
as a byproduct to other higher-revenue-generating metals such as zinc, lead,
copper and gold.
Now when I say higher revenue generating I am referring to the quantity of
the minerals that reside within the identified ore bodies, raw volume. I'll
give you an example right from the top. The largest silver-producing mine in
the world is the Cannington mine in Australia which produced 38 million ounces
in its fiscal year 2006. With its FYE in June, the base metals revenue based
on the average market prices during this period were more than 20% higher than
the silver revenue. And if this comparison was based on the calendar year 2006
instead, the spread would be even higher due to the big
spike in zinc.
Most of the largest silver mines by volume are not considered primary silver
mines as measured by the revenue of the other metals extracted. Interestingly,
not only is the Cannington mine owned by a company that is not a primary silver
miner, according to the venerable Silver
Institute only one of the top-ten largest global silver producers by volume
considers themselves a primary silver producer.
Because of the mineralization of the ore that a lot of silver comes from,
at today's prices it is often considered a byproduct metal. So in the search
to find "silver" stocks, or the stocks in the mining companies that are primary silver
explorers or producers, it is not as easy as it is for say gold or copper or
zinc.
Several of the proclaimed silver stocks that I looked at were in fact stealth
copper plays or stealth zinc plays. But I'll explain to you why this is alright
when choosing where to place your silver-stock capital. I call these companies
that have strong byproduct revenue (or revenue potential if they are not yet
producing) hybrid mining stocks.
Interestingly some of the best-performing mining stocks in the last couple
years are of this class. For example a number of gold producers, some of my
favorites, have incredibly strong copper, zinc and silver byproducts that made
their fundamentals much more attractive than their peers producing only gold
at similar levels.
These hybrid gold-mining companies credit byproduct revenues to the operating
costs of mining their gold and end up turning excellent profits. The diversified
mineralization within their gold deposits ends up being a blessing in disguise
when all metals are on the rise.
The litmus test in identifying which gold, and in today's case silver, hybrid
stock to go with lies in the strategic direction the company is taking. A couple
of years ago before the base metals took off, it was gold and silver all the
way. But at today's prices even though byproduct revenues are hefty and in
some cases exceed the primary metal, what is the future outlook of the company?
I believe that silver, with its investment angle, has a lot more potential
than the base metals through the course of this commodities bull. I'm still
very bullish on base metals, and they are a bonus as a credit to expenses,
but I believe the companies that keep their focus on silver will greatly prosper.
Another trend I identified in researching the silver stocks was the geographic
concentration of the junior explorers and emerging producers. Many of the up-and-coming
silver miners are centering their operations in Mexico and Peru. This is logical
though as these two countries happen to be the largest silver-producing countries
in the world, by far.
Mexico and Peru combine for silver production of about a third of the global
mined volume annually. These resource-rich countries are teeming with rich
silver veins and have accounted for billions of ounces of silver production
throughout history. But the flocking to these countries by the silver companies
is not just because of their geographic and geologic significance, but their
mature and available infrastructure.
The barriers to entry in the mining business are quite steep. It is very expensive
to explore for metals. And if you are lucky enough to find something to mine
it is even more expensive to develop and construct the mining infrastructure
necessary to extract the metals from the earth and bring them to market.
Well believe it or not there was a time before 2004, when today's silver bull
started to take shape, when it was actually profitable to mine silver. These
were times when silver mines were abundant and mining companies were able to
operate like a normal business. But in the commodities world no business is
normal. And the great commodities bear of the late 1980s and 1990s slowly sank
this industry into the doldrums of commodities cycles.
This relentless grind not only dropped the price of silver below $5 but kept
it there for years on end eviscerating the will for many companies to even
stay afloat. By the time the 21st century was upon us silver miners of all
sizes were at their wits' end with the commodities malaise and were forced
to close countless mining projects and operations.
Well those astute companies that would not accept the commodities-to-zero
sentiment and recognized silver's imminent rise swooped in and were able to
procure advanced projects and past-producing mines for pennies on the dollar
in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
So those smaller companies that would have otherwise not been able to build
a mine from the ground up, or down in many cases, were able to hurdle the ordinarily-high
barriers to entry in this industry and jump right in with identified deposits
and available infrastructure.
And even though a lot of silver has been extracted, in Mexico in particular,
modern exploration techniques have not yet addressed the rich veins that are
still open horizontally and at depth at most of these past-producing mines.
There is still a lot of silver left to be mined and discovered. And at today's
prices it should come with excellent profits.
Well since there are only a handful of mature primary silver producers that
were able to the weather the bear, a lot of smaller mining companies are vigorously
working to build a footprint in the primary-silver-mining niche and use the
momentum of this bull to bring the much-needed silver to market and greatly
profit along the way.
Now there are still those quality silver stocks that are building their operations
from the ground up through discoveries and acquisitions, but historic infrastructure
has allowed a growing number of mining companies to focus on bringing back
to life past-producing silver mines located in historic mining districts.
Regardless of a company's strategy to bring silver to market, the market will
welcome it with open arms for many years to come. According to the U.S. Geological
Survey, there was a 2006 silver production deficit of over 22 million ounces.
And with demand continuing to rise, especially investment demand, it will be
many years before the market returns to a consistent balance.
And even though the primary silver companies are not the major suppliers to
the market, their supply footprint is continuing to grow. The incumbents and
newcomers that have laser-like focus on this valuable commodity will play
a very important role in serving the market's needs. And it is these primary
silver companies that will greatly benefit in a rising silver market.
Of course the large mining conglomerates that bring silver to market as a
byproduct also play a vital role in the production cycle, but they are too
spread out between all their products to directly leverage and capitalize on
the silver bull. The primary silver companies on the other hand have positioned
themselves to live by the silver sword or die by the silver sword.
Now because the capitalization of the silver market is on the small side of
the commodities scale, the primary silver-mining companies tend to be much
smaller compared to the miners that focus on other metals. In fact, the largest
of the primary silver producers have market capitalizations well less than
$3 billion.
Mix these small market caps with a highly volatile silver market, and silver-stock
investing and speculating becomes not for the faint of heart. While
silver tends to follow the direction of its more influential yellow sibling,
gold, it can experience huge swings that can take investors on a wild ride.
This makes prudent silver-stock picking evermore critical for success.
And though it is a little more difficult to identify quality silver-mining
stocks that are in position to positively leverage silver, there are indeed
many out there that deserve consideration. In my Favorite silver stocks report
I wanted to run the gamut of various stages of these primary silver-mining
companies. The silver stocks I chose range from the highly-speculative junior
explorers to elite senior producers.
And now should be as good a time as any to acquire positions in silver stocks.
My business partner Adam Hamilton penned an essay last week that analyzed silver's
tactical trend and I encourage you to peruse his analysis. In short, silver
is currently in the midst of yet another upleg and is meandering around the
support side of a textbook uptrend. Technically this looks like a great time
to add silver stocks that leverage silver.
The Zeal Favorite 20 Silver Stocks Report, like our other reports, is designed
to fulfill the fundamental side of not only our personal stock trades but those
trades we recommend to our newsletter subscribers. We will be recommending
at least one of these exciting silver stocks from this just-published report
in the upcoming edition of our monthly
newsletter. But if you would like the in-depth fundamental research for
all 20 stocks at your finger tips, then please purchase
the report today.
The bottom line is silver is poised to continue its strength not only in our
current upleg but for many years to come as the global supply and demand imbalance
slowly works to correct itself. Primary silver stocks are a unique breed of
stocks and though they represent a small portion of global mined silver production,
they should positively leverage silver's gains and greatly reward their shareholders.
Not only have some of the larger primary silver companies been flexing their
muscles in this sector but there has been a steady flow of emerging silver
producers that have hit the scene in recent years that are giving investors
some excellent options to ride the silver train. Find the good ones and legendary
gains could be awaiting you.