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May 10, 2007

Inventory and Sales Of Single Family Homes In Santa Clara County For April 07
by Jas Jain

The median price for the county in April increased 12.1%, YoY, more than I expected, led by increased prices and volume in high-priced areas like Cupertino, Los Gatos and Palo Alto.

As the table above shows the claims of less than a month's inventory of homes in Lao Altos and Palo Alto by some brokers were exaggerated. It could be that quite a few sales don't go thru and therefore it is not correct to use Pending Sales as a measure of demand to calculate inventory. I don't know for sure if there are some tricks that get played to create a buying frenzy by not listing a home even when a home is known to be for sale. I know that some homes are purposely listed quite a bit under the market, say, 15-25%, to get multiple offers and biding wars in areas with good demand.

Someone in Los Altos was boasting of such a case in his neighborhood. He hasn't figured out that it is usually a set up. He even quotes data from unsolicited e-mails sent by brokers to list homes. One must have a healthy degree of skepticism when dealing with salespersons. I am sure that there are few honest and good people among brokers but I like to double check their claims.

Jas Jain, Ph.D.
the Prophet of Doom and Gloom

Copyright © 2004-2007 Jas Jain

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