If you like volatility, Monday was your kind of day! On the other hand, if
you want some sense as to whether the bulls or the bears are in charge, a day
like Monday will make you question if either has the upper hand.
Admittedly though, the fact that the equity indices gave up their morning
upside reversal is disturbing, but not yet to the point of forcing me into
neutrality (from my near term bullish posture).
MondayÕs intraday low of 149.02 in the S&P 500 Depository Receipts, or SPDRs
(SPY), violated the prior low of 149.06 on June 7, which ordinarily would be
bad action if the break triggered downside acceleration.
However, as of now the lack of downside follow-through after marginal new
lows coupled with a higher daily momentum (RSI) reading on Monday (versus on
June 7) suggests that the SPY is ending a correction rather than about to accelerate
into a more substantial decline.
The BIG picture view of the SPY below is biased to the long side in sympathy
with my interpretation of the overall technical picture, but knowing full well
that the bulls are running out of time to complete the correction off of the
June highs.

Another way to view the lack of downside acceleration is to examine the chart
of the ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF (QID). Right now that chart still shows
a powerful downtrend (uptrend for the longs), dominated by a series of lower
highs and lower lows.
Until that pattern is violated Ð upon a climb above the prior Òlower highÓ at
48.51 Ð the bear trend will remain very much intact. The QIDÕs must hurdle
a 7-week resistance plateau at 48.60, as well as the prior high at 48.51. Otherwise,
even though it may not feel like it at times (like right now), the bears remain
in control of the QIDÕsÉand the bulls in control of the major equity markets.
