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June 27, 2007

Stock Market: CNBC Report
by Bill McLaren

LET'S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART

A few weeks ago I said the index had hit a peak and would go down to or marginally below the February high. I have drawn this forecast on the chart. There is a strong probability the index could show a secondary or lower high on either the 19th of July or more likely the 27th of July. If that occurs there will be a fast move down. It will be easy to determine which date will be the secondary high because the rally will be 10 to 13 trading days up into it. That means the low around the February high will need to be hit and then tested one or two times. In the short term there should be a counter trend rally of one to three days around this June low as many traders believe it to be important. A break of that low will be followed by a capitulation down to the February high. With rates rising and the economy struggling the fundamental environment for a significant correction is in place but that will come from a secondary high at one of the two July dates.

NOW LET'S LOOK AT OIL

In early May I said the oil market was going to go back up and test the previous high and at that time there would be a pattern in place that could represent an intermediate counter trend in a down trending market. That pattern is three tests of the obvious resistance level. If the market shows an indication of trending down from here as a counter trend move of one to four days it could break the January lows.

LET'S LOOK AT THE GOLD CHART

Gold is in a fast move down that will not find a low until July 20th around the price of 618 or even 587. There was a weak trend up below a spike high and that is a setup for a fast move down which is now taking place. If the market can rally back into the last congestion it jut broke down from then I'm wrong.

Bill McLaren
McLaren Report

Disclaimer: This message is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice nor an invitation to buy or sell securities. The views are the personal views of the author. Before acting on any of the ideas expressed, the reader should seek professional advice to determine the suitability in view of his or her personal circumstances.

Copyright © 2004-2008 Bill McLaren

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