Editor's Note: The following is in answer to a reader's question "What
do they mean when they talk about global liquidity drying up?"
In remembrance of my high school biology teacher, who always reminded us
that the only stupid question is an unasked question, I offer the following
explanation.
Financial analysts and news reporters often refer to the concept of "liquidity," as
though it were a magic wand. One touch and all ills are cured. Until recently,
it was often heard that "the world is awash in liquidity," which was considered
a good thing. More recently, the en vogue observation is that "global liquidity
is drying up," which is spoken in ominous tones.
Liquidity and You
What is liquidity? Liquidity is simply a measure of how quickly an asset can
be converted into cash. Ultimately, liquidity is cash, because cash
can immediately be exchanged for just about anything else.
Financial assets such as stocks are liquid, but how liquid depends on the
market and the stock. With a phone call to your broker, or even the click of
a mouse, you can convert most of your stocks into cash - immediately. The market
for most stocks is "liquid" because there are so many participants, and there
is always a buyer - at some price.
Real estate - for example your house - is less liquid. Unlike with stocks,
you cannot click a button and convert your house into a pile of cash. Would
that it were so simple. Selling a house is a long, arduous process. You may
have to do some prep work first - painting, repairs, maybe some upgrades, then
you have to find an agent and show it around. Strangers come traipsing through
your living room on Sunday afternoons, peeking in your closets. In a highly
liquid (hot) market, you may only have to suffer such indignity for a few days,
and receive a price much higher than you expected. In an illiquid (slow) market,
you may have to suffer months (or even years) of this treatment, and still
not get an acceptable price.
In
Detroit, some houses are selling for less than the price of a new car. This
is an example of a very illiquid market - lots of people want out of the
city. There are few jobs and less hope. They want to sell, but few people
want to buy.
Then we come to the once haughty (soon to be lowly) hedge fund. Having money
in such a fund can be even less liquid than a house in Detroit. Some
hedge funds have suspended redemptions which is akin to saying, "Yes, your
money is here and it is (ahem) safe -but you can't have it just now..." When
can you have it? Well, that depends. Maybe never, as investors in two Bear
Stearns hedge funds found out a few weeks ago. Earlier in the year their investments
were doing just fine. A few months later, nothing was left.
What Causes Liquidity to "Dry Up?"
Liquidity - the ability to turn an asset into cash - requires other people who
are willing to pay cash for your asset. Modern bank accounts rarely suffer
from liquidity crises. In the past, such liquidity crises were known as "bank
runs." Mobs of people would rush to the bank to withdraw their funds, but the
bank didn't have the money. This is a classic liquidity crisis - the bank most
likely had the assets (mortgages, loans outstanding, hedge fund investments,
etc.), but the assets couldn't be converted to cash quickly enough (i.e. immediately)
to satisfy the rioting mob. Bank runs have been rare since the Great Depression
because accounts are now insured by the government.
A mini stock market panic - like the one we saw last week - is a form of liquidity
crisis. As long as stock prices are rising, people want to buy more and more
shares. They will even borrow money to buy shares, and banks will readily lend
them the money. There is no fear that the money will not be repaid, because
the collateral against the loans (stocks) are going up.
But like last week, when stocks suddenly fall, buyers disappear. Stockholders,
like homeowners in Detroit, and their hedge-fund-holding brethren, want to
sell, sell sell! They want to be "liquid," but buyers are only willing to buy
at lower prices - much lower. "Ridiculous!" the would-be sellers might say.
It is much better to wait, and sell in the inevitable rally that will follow.
(Maybe the rally will even be so good that they won't have to sell at all!)
But not so fast. The banks that loaned them the money to buy the stock in
the first place have other ideas - namely getting their money back, with interest
thank you very much. They demand repayment in the form of the dreaded margin
call. This forces shareholders to cough up more money, or "liquidate," i.e. convert
assets to cash even if they don't want to - even if they're going to lose
money. The bank will not lose money.
The factors discussed above are, cumulatively, the factors that determine
global liquidity. The font of global liquidity springs from the world's central
banks, which create liquidity by "printing it" as
Fed Chairman Bernanke famously revealed. In truth, Central Banks do not
print money, they loan it, and loans need to be repaid.
The Fed sets interest rates (the discount rate and the Fed Funds rate) at
which banks can borrow money. The interest rate on money is just another way
of setting the price of money. When the interest rate is low, money is cheaper.
Like cheap anything, there is more demand for cheap money, and there is also
correspondingly more supply. Since it is so cheap, more of it has to be lent
in order for banks to make a profit.
The recent housing boom in the United States was the result of cheap money.
Since interest rates were at historical lows, people borrowed more. Banks,
corporations, individuals and the government borrowed lots of money because
it was so cheap. They all thought they could use the cheap money to their advantage.
The government borrowed a lot of money and had a war. Corporations borrowed
a lot of money and bought their own shares. Individuals borrowed money and
bought houses. Banks had access to so much money that they let their lending
standards go - nearly anyone could borrow money to buy a house, start a hedge
fund, whatever! This is what is meant by global liquidity. There was so much
money sloshing around the globe, just looking for a home.
As noted however, borrowed money eventually has to be repaid. Because so much
money was lent, and lending standards were so lax, it turned out that a lot
of people couldn't repay their loans. A bank's response when a person can't
make their monthly payments is often to demand full repayment. Borrowers
who couldn't come up with monthly payments certainly couldn't come up with
the full balance, so they defaulted. Hedge funds that invested in mortgages
and derivatives also lost money - lots of it. The banks that loaned the hedge
fund money issued margin calls - the same way they issue margin calls to individual
investors.
Suddenly, with the thought of money actually being lost (or
more accurately, as I noted before - destroyed), banks have become less
willing to lend, because investors are less willing to buy the banks debts.
Investors - having already been burned - are rather looking to sell what
they own. Since everyone is thinking the same thing, there are few buyers.
No one wants to spend his cash, borrowed or not. Ergo, liquidity - the
ability to convert assets to cash - "dries up."
The result of a lack of liquidity is nearly always the same: falling prices.
Just as rising prices can create a virtuous cycle of ever-higher prices, falling
prices can create a destructive cycle of lower prices as credit is destroyed
and asset prices collapse. The housing market in Detroit is one example.
Only when this destructive cycle is complete - after prices have fallen as
far as they are going to - are assets once again viewed as bargains. At that
point, demand again rises and liquidity lubricates the flow of rising prices.
A word to the young, mobile and wise would-be homeowners - check out Detroit.