As U.S. mortgage market infrastructure continues in collapse, era of paper
assets is fading into history. Last week's chart showed that Gold has provided
higher returns than paper assets over past ten years. Today's graph places
situation in a longer term perspective. Era of real assets, personified by
Gold, is early in a cyclical upswing. Good part is yet to come. Plotted is
ratio of US$Gold to S&P 500. When rising, Gold is performing better than
paper equities. The ratio remains at a multi year high, confirming that the
rise of Gold over paper equities continues. Solid line is average for entire
62 years, and provides means for valuing Gold and paper equities. Based on
Gold's price, the S&P 500 should be 570, down 60% from current level. Based
on S&P 500's current price, Gold should be at $1,700, up 150%. Reality
will be somewhere in between these guesses, but the bias has to go to Gold.

FOMC may have made a wise decision Tuesday, one of their few. Goal of moderate
inflation benefits all. Bailing out hedge funds, private equity funds, mortgage
brokers, and bond dealers benefits the undeserving. Saving speculators is not
part of Federal Reserve's mandate. Risk exists as an attempt will likely be
made to fix collapsing U.S. mortgage market. Better solution would be to rapidly
flush down the drain those funds and brokers which have exacerbated mortgage
mess. Sooner they are gone, quicker system can recover. Doing what needs to
be done, rather than politically fashionable, has rarely been a Federal Reserve
policy. Given the Fed's record and continued likelihood of mortgage market
bailout, moving out of both North American dollars into Gold is the wisest
investment course.
GOLD THOUGHTS are from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS,
publisher of The Value View Gold Report, monthly, and Trading Thoughts,
weekly. For a subscription go to http://home.att.net/~nwschmidt/Order_Gold_EMonthlyTT.html. Ned
will be exploring the Gold Super Cycle at The Wealth Expo in NYC, 19-21 October. For
information go to www.wealthexpo.net.
To receive a copy of the new Agri-Food Value View, an exploration of
Agri-Food Super Cycle, write agrifoodvalueview@earthlink.net.