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September 24, 2007

Stock Quotes Surge on Prime Interest Rate Cuts
by Greg Silberman

The Fed reduced short-term interest rates by 50 basis points on Tuesday. That was 25 basis points more than the market expected and the response was rapid and predictable:

• The Dow and other major averages rallied over 2%
• The Dollar fell as Gold and Oil rose.
• Long Bonds fell as the spectre of increased inflation loomed large.

We find ourselves asking if this is the beginning of a larger trend or yet another 1-day wonder in what has been 2-months of unbelievable volatility.

The fact that commodities continue to outperform against financial assets implies that the probability is weighted towards further inflation. In fact, the Feds policy of bailing out markets no matter what, is a highly dangerous inflationary policy.

Chart 1 - CRB index outperforming Long Bonds since the beginning of 2007

Our outlook is therefore for higher long-term interest rates ahead and is corroborated by the intermarket picture:

Chart 2 - Intermarket analysis of Dollar (top); Bonds (middle) and S&P500 (bottom)

In late July we showed the above chart with purple rectangles. Our intention was to show how Bonds were tracking the movements of the Dollar with an approximate 3-month time lag and the stock market to Bonds with an equal lag.

At the time we drew the Blue arrow against the S&P500 (red line) indicating that we thought that based on the Bond market moving lower, the stock market was about to do the same (which it did).

What has subsequently taken us by surprise is the extent of the rally in Bonds (green line) since the June lows. Bonds became the recipients of a flight to safety as the credit crunch set in.

Now the market feels the Fed is on the job and Bonds are losing their safe haven appeal as inflationary fears have come to the fore. Higher interest rates will also exasperate the housing bust!

If the intermarket picture remains accurate then the top should now be in for Bonds (the US Dollar made its intermediate top about 3 months ago - red arrow).

The stock market should continue to rally for a few more months, perhaps back to the July highs. Then it should reverse lower.

What we therefore envisage is that this rate cut will be one of many as the market, left alone, will sink under its own weight and will require constant support. This will be good for current Gold prices and current Oil prices which we feel offers the best risk return in the current market environment.

More commentary and stock picks follow for subscribers...

I am an investor and newsletter writer specializing in Junior Mining and Energy Stocks. Please visit my website for a free trial to my newsletter:http://blog.goldandoilstocks.com

Greg Silberman CA(SA), CFA
www.goldandoilstocks.com

Profession: Research Analyst and Newsletter Editor
Company: Ritterband Investment Management LLC

Career Brief: Greg qualified as the youngest Chartered Accountant and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) in South Africa in 1998 at 25 years old. After completing his traineeship with Grant Thornton he moved to London where he worked for JP Morgan Chase in their Fixed Income Swaps Division. Sick of the grey skies and cold weather Greg relocated to Atlanta, Georgia where he spent the next 4 years freelancing as a management consultant. His targeted clients were fast growing mid size US based companies and he worked across many industries including credit cards, health insurance and energy trading. Greg has recently returned from Sydney Australia where he spent the last 2½ years working in Equity Derivative Structuring for Perpetual investments a major Australian Asset Management Company.

Greg has a passion for the markets and has been writing Greg's market newsletter for 2-years. A newsletter focused on metal and energy stocks and recently non-resource small caps listed in the US and Internationally.

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Copyright © 2006-2008 Greg Silberman

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