"When I was a boy I used to do what my father wanted. Now I have to do
what my boy wants. My problem is: When am I going to do what I want?" ~
Samuel Levenson
We have spoken several times in regards to this issue over the course of the
last few years. China has already lead the assault on a covert basis but soon
they will move to an overt basis and now India will be forced to join them
not because they think they might have to but because they desperately need
too. The excerpt below will explain our point quite clearly.
Faced with an acute shortage of uranium to run existing power stations,
the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd has advanced its maintenance
schedule and started shutting down individual power units. Usually, these
units are shut down in a staggered manner but this time they have been
bunched together so that authorities get time to arrange for uranium supplies.
Over the past few weeks, as many as five units amounting to 1000 MW of
the total 4000 MW were shut down on account of upkeep of plants: two units
from Tarapur (Maharashtra) and one each from Kaiga (Karnataka), Kalpakkam
(Tamil Nadu) and Kakrapar (Gujarat).
Already, most of the plants that were running at 90-95 per cent capacity
until last year are now down to 50-70 per cent reflecting the serious uranium
crisis facing the country.
Acknowledging that there is a fuel supply "mismatch" due to further delays
in the commissioning of the milling system in Jharkhand mines, one of the
main sources of domestic fuel supply, authorities are having to innovate
on their maintenance schedule. Hoping that the fuel situation may ease
a bit in the next month or so, sources said, the NPCIL felt that this period
could be used for maintenance which anyhow requires shutting down a reactor
for about 20 days. Full
Story
Known Recoverable Resources of Uranium
| |
Tonnes U |
% of world |
| Australia |
1,143,000 |
24% |
| Kazakhstan |
816,000 |
17% |
| Canada |
444,000 |
9% |
| USA |
342,000 |
7% |
| South Africa |
341,000 |
7% |
| Namibia |
282,000 |
6% |
| Brazil |
279,000 |
6% |
| Niger |
225,000 |
5% |
| Russian Fed. |
172,000 |
4% |
| Uzbekistan |
116,000 |
2% |
| Ukraine |
90,000 |
2% |
| Jordan |
79,000 |
2% |
| India |
67,000 |
1% |
| China |
60,000 |
1% |
| Other |
287,000 |
6% |
| World total |
4,743,000 |
|
Now just imagine a country such as France had to go through the same situation;
total chaos would reign as 80% of France's electricity comes from nuclear power
plants. We are not stating that France is in any danger we are just trying
to illustrate a point here. For that matter imagine the US had to go through
the same situation it would still cause chaos as over 20% of our electricity
is generated from nuclear power plants. Actually one has to applaud the French
for being so astute as to have had the foresight to continue to develop nuclear
technology and move away from coal and natural gas; today the French are one
of the leaders in Nuclear power plant technology a position once held by the
United States.
We are at the beginning stages of a massive bidding war in Uranium. China
is locking in massive deals in Africa and is now working on ever bigger deals
in Kazakhstan which holds the worlds second largest reserves of Uranium after
Australia. Note to that China signed a multi billion dollar uranium deal with
Australia. China is basically locking up Uranium supplies, which means its
taking this uranium out of the market place; this effectively means that there
will be even less uranium for the rest of the global world players to go after.
Now this development alone is bad enough but the situation worsens; Russia
which has more than enough uranium has decided to start stock piling on uranium
too. They have done this after declaring that Uranium is now a strategic resource
and will only be exported in limited quantities. Once again the following news
story will best illustrate our point.
"This new agreement will allow the supply of Australian uranium for use
in Russia's civil nuclear power industry and provide a framework for broader
cooperation on peaceful nuclear-related activities," he said. Both Howard
and Putin dismissed concerns that Russia would sell Australian uranium
to third countries such as Iran.
"I simply don't understand what people are talking about," Putin said,
pointing out that Russia already exports large quantities of enriched uranium
for military use, including 30 tonnes a year to the United States. "We
are buying uranium from Australia for purely economic reasons," he said. Full
Story
Purely economic reasons and why not; Putin is a smart man he knows that in
the future nations will be desperately begging for this valuable commodity
and he also knows that he who controls the keys to the energy market controls
the world. One other thing to note here is that Russia supplies the US with
over 30 tonnes a year of uranium; Russia could cut these supplies on a moments
notice especially now that the relationship between these two former cold war
enemies has turned rather frosty as of late.
Bottom line is the Uranium bull is one that is going to be driven by the two
most powerful forces in the universe and such a development is very rare and
provides the astute investor with a window of opportunity that usually presents
itself only once in a persons life time. The two forces are fear and greed;
usually one of them is enough to produce massive moves but in the near future
both of them will be working in unison instead of against each other. This
is one of the main reasons why it's almost impossible to predict how high uranium
prices could eventually trade at. Right now the uranium sector has been beaten
down and many individuals have given up on this sector as some stocks have
truly taken a massive beating. Remember at TI we view disaster as opportunity
waiting to be discovered and thus our advice to all our subscribers is to make
sure you hold positions in all the various uranium plays that are listed in
our portfolios and hold them through thick and thin or until we advise you
to unload them. Those that do so will be handsomely rewarded and those that
don't well in the years to come they will most likely shed tears of blood as
they wonder what possessed them to let such a wonderful opportunity pass them
by. Do not let this opportunity slip by you.
Futures players with deep pockets could start examining the possibility of
going long Uranium futures; do so with the mindset that the next leg up will
not begin tomorrow.
"Who then is free? The wise man who can govern himself." ~ Horace BC
65-8, Italian Poet