Gold came within a whisker of our oft repeated target of $850 an ounce last
reached in 1980. The main driver is the debasement of the US currency, which
is losing value against gold and other commodities. The dollar continued its
slide, setting a record low against the euro. The protracted crisis in the
credit markets threatens to cripple the US economy. The result has been a crisis
of liquidity rather than default. America's tendency to live beyond its means
is over. The US greenback is continuing its orderly retreat and every sign
(financial, economic, and political) points to further depreciations. American's
indebtedness, long its Achille's heel has unwittingly redrawn the economic
and political map of the world. In the wake of a loss of trust in the US financial
system, gold is a good thing to have and our intermediate target is $1,000
an ounce. Gold is a reasonable proxy for prices, a hedge against investor anxiety,
and a store of value particularly compared to stocks and currencies, which
are subject to a variety of unpredictable economic factors.
The Center Of Capitalism Is Burning
The main driver behind the collapse in credit are the "weapons of mass destruction" (as
Buffett calls them) created by Wall Street. America's prescription was easy
credit and to keep interest rates artificially low which was the cause of reckless
lending and the subsequent implosion of almost $500 billion of derivatives.
This time the big investment banks have been hoisted upon the very paper that
they created which has already caused huge losses and the demise of some their
leaders. Wall Street is in peril. Wall Street prospered by financial engineering
every form of debt into tradeable assets to spread risk and of course generate
fees. The slicing and dicing of risk created exotic derivatives of structured
products. The boom hinged on cheap money and confidence in the quality of these
assets. Today, we are in uncharted waters as no one knows to unwind these newly
devised structures of finance.
Banks used to be safe as houses, yet history show that bank failures are all
too common throughout financial history, from the closing of the Herstatt Bank
to the collapse of Long Term Capital Management to the S & L debacle in
the US. History shows no one is too big to fail. England experienced its first
collapse in the millennium. Banks have been forced to increase their writedowns
and the Street fears that there is insufficient capital to back these writedowns.
Moreover, the newly appointed Emperors of the boom like the hedge funds and
private equity players, feasted on the various financial products and became
highly dependant on borrowed money and leverage. The credit crunch saw these
institutions dump their assets. The emperor was found to have no clothes.
Central Banks Are Part of the Problem
However, what is also at risk is not only the financial institutions but the
world's central bankers' credibility. The loss of that credibility is like
losing one' virginity, once lost it cannot be restored. For example, in a bit
of Wall Street cronyism, the Fed's helicopters dumped dollars on Wall Street
and have not yet reached Main Street. Central banks attention today is exclusively
focused on resolving the problems in the banking system, ignoring the inflationary
consequences of an open vault monetary policy. That the central banks were
willing to bailout the big banks, exposes not only the hypocrisy but the dangers
to the financial system. Central banks are supposed to be independent and stewards
of the financial system, they should not be co-dependent nor conflicted.
Also few notice that the central banks continue to flood the markets with
money particularly at the last quarter end. After cutting rates by 25 basis
points, the Fed pumped $41 billion into the US financial system, the most since
September 2001. The Bank of England has so far extended our $40 billion to
Northern Rock. There are still credit logjams from New York to Belgium, yet
the monetary aggregates on a global basis remain loose. Central banks are simply
printing too much money.
The Fed gave investors what they wanted by lowering short-term rates which
was sort of shock therapy to the credit markets. However, the Fed's action
comes at a cost. The reduction in rates removes the sole prop to the US dollar
and reinforces the view that the Fed will reflate its way out of America's
problems. The rate reduction in essence is the continuation of an overly loose
monetary policy that will eventually undermine what is left of the integrity
of the dollar. The rate reduction also comes on the heels of the Bank of England's
U-turn bailout so soon after pledging it would not underwrite handouts. Financial
panic hit the public and the central bankers.
"Made in America" Policy Scrapped
While Wall Street is enjoying the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate reduction,
noteworthy is that many other central banks have not joined the Americans.
For example, the Saudi's central bank matched the Fed's 25 basis point rate
cut but ignored the bigger September reduction, raising speculation that Saudi's
would follow Kuwait's example and drop the long-held dollar peg. Flush with
$500 billion, the Saudi's may revalue the riyal upward and even tighten reserve
requirements to quench inflation. Iceland too actually raised rates to a record
13.75 percent to rein in inflation. Australia's central bank raised its interest
to 6.75 percent to an 11 year high despite the Aussie dollar at its highest
level in 23 years. Few remember that Beijing broke its peg with the US dollar
in mid 2005 and while the renminbi has appreciated, China's economy's growth
is still among the fastest in the world. Even Ecuador is threatening to ditch
the greenback. We believe that the shift by some central banks to decouple
from the world's reserve currency is a desire to avoid being dragged down when
the currency bubble bursts. Gold will be a good thing to have as a store of
value and medium of exchange.
Subprime, the First Domino
In domino-like fashion, the sub-prime mortgage problem was only the first
of many to fall as the result of the huge global imbalance that has emerged
over the past ten years. What began as a sub-prime mortgage crunch, turned
into a credit crunch and now a dollar crunch. In addition to the bailouts,
investment bankers have created ever fancier securities or super-tranches of
linked collateralized debt obligations of asset backed securities. However,
investor appetite for these synthetic collateralized debt obligations has disappeared.
Wall Street just doesn't get it. Bernanke's bailout only served to mask the
real consequences of their earlier banking conduct. Nothing has changed. The
second domino has fallen.
Coventree, Northern Rock and Countrywide were unheard names five years ago.
These financial institutions seemingly grew from nowhere financed by easy credit
as they financed long term liabilities with short term paper. Now, they have
now been caught offside. Unfortunately this is not the end of the contagion.
Undermining the trust among banks, many banks have stopped dealing with one
and other. In the UK that helped trigger a funding squeeze for Northern Rock
which is now for sale. In Canada, Coventree triggered a collapse of the $50
billion Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) market. Today the banks are no
longer willing to finance the structured products like ABCP conduits or SIVs.
There are an estimated $350 billion and $400 billion of SIVs outstanding. But
like ABCPs, the financial engineers failed in their attempt to unload risk
unto others, and the investment banks are caught again.
Rather than bite the bullet and markdown assets to reasonable levels as they
did during the S&L debacle of the late 1980s, Citicorp, Bank of America,
and JP Morgan with the help of Treasury Secretary Paulson are stalled in the
creation of a new superfund, the Master Liquidity Enhancement Conduit (MLEC)
to avoid a fire sale of assets. The banks are throwing good money after bad
money and are simply creating yet another derivative to paper over the sins
of the last derivative. MLECs are to purchase assets from the same bank affiliated
structures that could not find financing in an extinct commercial paper market.
The MLECs only perpetuate and prop up that other weak paper like ABCP, SIVs
etc. It won't cause the asset sales at realistic prices. It won't buff up balance
sheets. It won't work. The dominoes keep toppling.
America's financial problem is that so much debt is backed by assets with
inflated values that fire sales would drive prices down even further, putting
pressure on the big investment banks' fragile capital base. Next year, an estimated
2 million homeowners will lose their homes, destroying $100 billion or more
of value. With the mortgage market seized up and the home equity disappearing,
an over-leverage consumer will have trouble keeping up with the payments. But
where are those losses? The problem with America's credit woes is that this
paper was built on loose sand. As long as the credit markets remain paralyzed,
the big banks' balance sheets will weaken further as they are forced to take
on their ever larger amounts of commercial paper and leveraged loans. All in
all, this won't solve the liquidity problems. The banks reported their worst
quarter since 2001 but the carnage keeps on mounting. Writeoffs on mortgage
linked assets have surpassed $60 billion but the losses could exceed 5 times
that. UBS recorded a loss of $3.4 billion, Citibank would face $10 billion
of writedowns, Merrill Lynch's losses stood at $8 billion. Deutsche Bank revealed
losses topping $3 billion. If the damage widens, it will wreak havoc on an
over-leveraged economy much as the innocuous sub=prime crisis has done.
US Greenback Death Spiral
When Bush took office in January 2001, the national debt stock at less than
$6 trillion. Today after tax cuts, war spending and a credit boom, the debt
stands at $9 trillion. One of the biggest causalities is the US dollar, which
has finally begun its overdue correction as the credit crisis unfolds. However,
we believe the dollar's decline is just a prelude to a much more substantial
fall given the need to shrink the $750 billion current account gap, which runs
almost 6 percent of GDP. The US manufacturing sector has dwindled to less than
20 percent of GDP, worsening America's trade gap to grow. In 1988, the US trade
gap stood at $247 billion (when the euro averaged $0.88). Today, the greenback
has fallen 40 percent against the euro, but the trade gap has worsened (the
euro is close to $1.50). America's trade deficit must be financed by $2 billion
of capital a day from the rest of the world. Since foreign investors are no
longer buying significant amounts of US stocks or even their paper in the wake
of mortgage crisis, the trade deficit must somehow be financed. Former Fed
Chairmen Greenspan said the dollar decline may reflect foreigner's reluctance
to buy US securities and that, "there is a limit to the extent the obligations
to foreigners can reach". We have reached that limit.
At a time when the US requires more than $2 billion a day to finance its bloated
current account deficit, the depreciating dollar acts as a disincentive to
foreign investors for additional investments in US securities, particularly
when they reduce rates. To no surprise, foreign investors dumped their holdings
of US securities by a record amount, according to the latest US Treasury figures.
To be sure, the dollar has lost its safe haven status as the credit crisis
unfolds. In August, total oversea holdings of US bonds, notes and equities
fell a net $69.3 billion after a revised increase of $19.2 billion in July.
The August outflow surpassed the previous record of $21.2 billion in March
1990.
The United States continues to spend more than it produces. The chronic twin
deficits are bloated by war spending and America's insatiable appetite for
oil which has caused the trade deficit to explode to almost 6 percent of GDP.
Over the last ten years, the consumer accounted for 70 percent of American
spending, driven largely by the housing boom and the doubling in property prices.
That has ended and now price inflation not asset inflation will plague consumers
in light of rising energy, food and higher financing costs.
Ironically the credit crunch started a new bubble. Newly created money is
fuelling the boom in global commodities. Currencies are losing value against
commodities and gold due to open-market operations that sees everyone absorbing
excess dollars with newly created currencies. The printing presses are on full
steam. Global monetary policies are excessively stimulate as a result of the
demise of the greenback, ensuring our intermediate target of $1,000 an ounce.
Reflationary forces to end the credit crunch has caused a dollar crunch and
investors are looking to hard assets to keep their value. To be sure, the dollar
has lost its status as the world's reserve currency.
China booms amid financial woes
The US is no longer the sole engine of global growth. While America is being
buffeted by the housing downturn, credit woes and weak US dollar, China has
replaced America as the rise of their consumer class, means their rapidly growing
economy is no longer as dependent on exports. Today, three of the five most
valuable companies in the world are now Chinese ahead of Exxon and General
Electric. Japan too, continues to grow and surprisingly these countries have
been able to withstand high oil prices - something that the Americans have
not been able to achieve. More importantly, is that the central banks have
pursued an independent monetary policy by the not following America's reduction
in interest rates.
The turmoil in the global credit markets has so far left Asia, particularly
China relatively unscathed. Asia's strong economic growth and massive foreign
reserves have enabled Asia to withstand the slowdown in the US and Europe.
Asia has decoupled from the US due in part to the robust economic growth and
huge foreign reserves. Asian stock markets continue their rise. Unlike ten
years ago, when Asia was the centre of a global financial storm, Asia has learned
its lessons by decoupling from the North American train.
But perhaps no country has revelled in its independence than China which has
pursued an independent monetary policy and avoided a major revaluation. Like
elsewhere, interest rates did not drop after the US Federal Reserve rate cut.
A revaluation would reduce China's income as well the value of foreign assets
of more than $1 trillion since most of those reserves are in US dollar denominated
investments. In addition, inflation would not be addressed by an upward revaluation.
Price rises in China are mainly domestically generated and a revaluation would
not help reduce these costs. If inflation were mainly imported, a revaluation
would make sense. Moreover, at a time when currency uncertainty was prevalent,
China finds itself competing for capital. A revaluation would increase the
country's purchasing power and imports but make it more expensive for foreigners
to invest. The US bilateral trade with China has gone from $6.2 billion in
1989 to a current estimated $250 billion this year. The government is slowly
opening its capital markets to foreign investors, so a revaluation would also
make it more costly.
Today, the world has become less US-centric and more Asia-centric where growth
opportunities are more attractive. In addition, we believe China's surplus
will be deployed strategically with some $16.1 billion of foreign assets purchased
last year, up 34 percent from $12 billion from the previous year. China's $200
billion investment fund is a fraction of the wall of money destined and there
will be stiff competition for foreign assets ranging from resources to Wall
Street to auto-makers. Thanks to the capitalist stock market, the Shanghai
stock market has climbed by a third since yearend. Yet the market is not even
a source of funding for corporations. China's behemoths are largely state-backed
and the balance sheets are state-backed. Fears of overheating are misplaced.
The bubble will eventually burst but China's entities' will escape unscathed.
China has excess savings and they are still at the nascent stage in building
experience in international investing. However, they have shown a propensity
to learn fast. We believe China will shift more and more of its $1.4 trillion
currency hoard to other assets, particularly gold. China has less than 2% or
only 600 tonnes of gold in reserves, a small fraction relative to other major
industrialized countries. That compares with over 8,100 tonnes for the Americans
and 3,422 tonnes for the Germans, the two biggest holders of the metal. China
will produce almost 260 tonnes, displacing the United States and Canada. South
Africa, the world's largest producer, produced 275 tonnes, it's lowest in 85
years. China will want to be self-sufficient so we see the industry benefitting
form privatization and the usage of western technology. China is an excellent
gold province and relatively underexplored. We expect China to increase consumption
of gold as its people become more prosperous and expect its central bank to
boost its reserve position more in line with Europe that has a 15% weighting
of gold behind the euro. Gold in particularly is something China does not have
enough of yet. That will change.
The Chinese are now looking into buying stakes in companies such as KKR and
private equity Carlyle following the acquisition of a stake in Bear Stearns.
The National Council for Social Security Fund was set up as part of the pension
plan policies for China and the security fund has joined a number of other
large Chinese state institutions investing overseas. Recently Industrial and
Commercial Bank of China, China's largest lender, struck a deal to buy 20 percent
of Standard Bank in South Africa. In addition, the Chinese entities, through
the mandates of their securities regulator, have approved QDIIs and QFIIs using
large entities to make investments overseas. In addition, so many of the major
Chinese Institutions have secured stock market listings, raising cash that
they are now looking around for targets, particularly merger and acquisition
vehicles. Because the one common challenge facing Chinese institutions is the
lack of capital market knowledge, China is expected to seed many of the Chinese
institutions in order that they make other acquisitions so they won't run into
the high profile difficulties of earlier aborted deals like Minmetal's bid
for Noranda.
Recommendations
Despite the move in gold and gold stocks, this asset class is relatively under-owned.
Most institutional portfolios have less than a market weight and some in fact
have no gold stocks at all. Despite sterling performances, many precious metals/portfolio
managers tell us that withdrawals remain more of a concern than inflows. Part
of the reason for the lack of retail involvement is that gold has yet to record
new highs such as nickel, copper, lead or oil. Gold is money and with supplies
constrained, growing demand from the Far East is expected to take gold stocks
even higher. Gold is not only a commodity but money as well. We believe that
the consequences of saving America's banks will cause a new cycle of credit
creation, competitive devaluations and a round of inflation. The liabilities
of the banking system are the main reason why gold will trade higher than $1,000
an ounce. Gold has no liabilities and throughout the millennium continues to
maintain its value. Gold is immune to default. After all, in the gold world
there is no mark to model only mark to market.
The gold price hurdled over the $800 an ounce barrier en route to $850 an
once. The gold index finally increased with the larger cap companies leading
the way. The senior producers have been plagued by a flat production profile
and rising costs. We continue to believe that investors will be rewarded by
investing in gold and particularly gold stocks, since there have been times
when gold stocks have outperformed by gold more than 2 to 1. It is our belief
that once gold breaks above $850, institutions will buy up whatever mining
companies are left standing after the industry itself feasts on the remaining
smaller players. The best potential remains the mid-tier and junior explorers
from a risk reward point of view. We continue to like, Barrick, Kinross, Agnico-Eagle and Newmont among
the larger cap players since they are liquid. However, the best potential remains
the more junior situations like Aurizon Mining, Eldorado, Etruscan and
High River Gold as growing producers. Noteworthy of our ten juniors, two juniors
(Bema and Miramar) have been gobbled up. We also recommend the silver stocks
such as MAG Silver Corp. and Excellon for their exploration prospects
and their exposure to silver. We remain convinced that the junior explorers
such as Continental Minerals, Philex Gold and St. Andrew Goldfields, Unigold and USGold are
attractive due to their active exploration programs. The junior explorers and
developers should be bought as a package and are attractive on a valuation
basis particularly since the majors are paying more $300 an ounce for gold
in the ground. We continue to believe that the takeover activities will continue
and while we are likely to see fewer mega-deals, the industry consolidation
will continue. As such, we expect the mid-caps to be among the hunters since
they too are prey. Kinross and Agnico-Eagle and even Newmont are
vulnerable.
Companies
Agnico-Eagle Mines
Agnico-Eagle, a second tier producer is flush with cash and on a growth trajectory
that includes five mines under construction. These mines will not require further
financings and to date, Agnico-Eagle's management has not been plagued with
the execution problems of other producers. Agnico reported a modest profit
in the third quarter of $0.08 or $11.5 million due primarily to a non-cash
foreign currency translation loss of $25 million or $0.19 per share. At LaRonde,
Agnico's main mine in Quebec, the mill processed an average of 7,500 tonnes
of ore per day in line with expectations. Agnico still produces gold at (-$307)
an ounce due to the byproduct credits. Agnico-Eagle's cash hoard stands at
$427 million which is sufficient to finance its expansion. In addition, the
Company will receive $122 million from the exercise of warrants at yearend.
At 100 percent owned Goldex mine in north western Quebec, Agnico should producer
170,000 ounces beginning in the 2nd quarter of 2008. In northern Finland, 100
percent owned Kittalia mine will produce 150,000 ounces of gold by the 3rd
quarter of next year. At 100 percent owned Lapa mine in northwestern Quebec,
Agnico will producer 125,000 ounces per year now that the shaft has reached
final depth. In addition, following the acquisition of Cumberland, Agnico-Eagle
is developing the Meadowbank property in Nunavut but initial production is
not expected until 2010. In summary, Agnico's plate is full with an excellent
project pipeline. We continue to recommend the shares here for its rising production
profile which is among the best in the industry.
Barrick Gold Corp
Barrick Gold, the largest gold producer in the world, launched a friendly
$805 million all cash bid for Arizona Star which is a joint venture partner
with Kinross on the huge Cerro Casale copper-gold project in Chile. Cerro Casale
has a multi-billion dollar capital cost and Barrick's involvement will accelerate
production, although that is not expected until after 2010. Barrick reported
3rd Quarter earnings of $0.40 of share or $345 million and gold production
of 1.93 million ounces, down from 2.16 million ounces a year ago. Importantly,
cash cost increased to $370 an ounce up from $281 an ounce. Barrick will meet
this year's production guidance of 8 million ounces plus and over 400 million
pounds of copper but the near term production profile is flat. Barrick's dilemma
is that its pipeline requires multi-billion dollar expenditures at not only
Cerro Casales, but Donlin Creek, Pascua Lama, Pueblo Viejo, and Buzwagi. While
Barrick has an excellent pipeline, the huge capital commitments in order to
replace its production is a daunting task. The biggest, however is Pascua Lama,
where Barrick has more than 8.5 million ounces of hedges attached to it, making
that project less and less viable at current gold prices. Consequently, we
believe that Barrick will likely buy an unhedged producer, not ironically for
its reserves, but for the unhedged production, as a way to offset the very
expensive hedge policy. When that happens, Barrick will be an excellent buy,
other than a trading buy.
High River Gold Mines
High River is bringing on one of the largest silver projects in the world
which unfortunately is in Russia. The Prognoz project in eastern Russia has
excellent grade, a strike length in excess of 1,800 metres and is a huge deposit.
High River has a 42 percent interest in Prognoz. High River has brought on
stream the Taparko mill which will result in 100,000 ounces of production next
year and 140,000 ounces thereafter. The mill is still in a start-up phase and
the start up complements the Berezitovy in Russia which came into production.
High River is poised to produce over 300,000 ounces next year and thus the
shares are recommended for its rising production profile.
Excellon Resources Inc.
For some time we have been recommended Excellon as a junior silver producer
with excellent upside exploration potential. Excellon will producer 2.5 million
ounce from its Platosa project in Durango Mexico despite capacity limitations
at Penoles' Fresnillo Naica mill. Excellon plans to build its own mill which
will not only let them handle increased capacity but also allow the Company
to benefit from lead and zinc byproduct credits. Excellon paid its silver debentures
off and so the balance sheet is pristine. The new mill will handle 350 tonnes
of ore per day and a floatation plant is planned onsite to handle the lead
and zinc concentrates. We expect the mill to start up late next year and the
mill should pay back within months. More importantly, Excellon is in the midst
of an aggressive exploration program with four rigs turning. The Company believes
that they are on the edge of a carbonate replacement deposit (crd) which could
launch the Company into major status. We like Excellon's near term prospects
and believe the Company has the wherewithal to reach the next stage. Buy.
Etruscan Resources Inc.
Etruscan is a growing junior producer with a dominant land position in the
gold belts of West Africa. The Company has projected 90,000 ounces from the
90 percent owned Youga project in Burkino Faso which will come on stream this
quarter. We like Etruscan here not only for the production from Youga but also
for its Samira Hill mine in Niger and the huge land package. Etruscan should
release a new resource complementing Youga's mineable reserves of 580,000 ounces
of gold. Youga and the Agbaou gold project in the Côte d'Ivoire lie in
the West African gold belt. In addition the Diba and Finkolo prospectus in
Mali complements the Youga and Etruscan has a resource in excess of 2 million
ounces. Etruscan has not only a solid production base but the exploration prospects
and land package make this an excellent play. We recommend the shares here.
Mag Silver Corp.
Mag Silver released additional results from the Juanicipio property in Mexico.
The company has been developing this prospect with joint venture partner Penoles,
owner and operator of the nearby Fresnillo mine. Penoles has a 56 percent interest
and a high grade silver prospect with a strike length of more than 1.3 kilometres.
The Company has been drilling wide step outs and have enjoyed continous success
and to date, we estimate the envelope contains 250 million ounces. Management
is extremely experienced and we believe the Zacatecas Juanicipio property is
the crown jewel. Not only does Mag Silver have a strategic partnership with
the largest silver producer, Penoles but Mag has more than half a dozen other
prospects. For example, Mag's Batopilas, a 48 km2 property in Chihuahua has
had excellent results and two rigs are turning. Mag is also on track on sourcing
a potential carbonate replacement deposit (crd) at Cinco De Mayo, where an
active program has begun. Dr. Peter McGaw, the author of numerous studies on
CRDs is guiding Mag's quest at Cinco De Mayo (Mag also has 3 other potential
crds). We like Mag Silver for its exploration prospects. The company recently
issued 3 million shares, giving it sufficient cash to conduct its exploration
prospects. We would buy the shares here.
Newmont Mining Corporation
Newmont mining reported a disappointing 3rd quarter due to increased costs.
The 3rd quarter contained a number of extra-ordinary items and the Company
will produce between 5.2 and 5.4 million ounces this year but at a cash cost
$400+ and ounce. Richard O'Brien, Newmont's new man-in-charge, is sweeping
the cupboard clean and is spinning out Newmont Capital through a $1 billion
offering renaming it Franco-Nevada. Newmont has assembled a experienced Board
with Pierre Lassonde and Dave Harquail managing a good part of the old Franco-Nevada
assets, including an excellent royalty portfolio. The push-out however obscures
Newmont's problem and that is a flat production profile. Newmont expects to
spend between $170 and $175 million on exploration which is too small given
its cash flow. We expect Newmont to remedy this and rather than tuck-in acquisitions,
we think the company will look for a company builder. Most of its programs
are centered around its operations and thus we think that Newmont will be an
active shopper. Newmont's friendly $1.5 billion bid for Miramar is more of
a tuck-in acquisition. While Newmont will likely fast-track the Doris North
development, Hope Bay is a project for tomorrow and is not a panacea for Newmont's
lack of growth. Newmont's difficulty of replacing of reserves at its aging
mines is a common problem for the majors. However, O'Brien's new focus is likely
to see a more aggressive Newmont, and thus we recommend the shares here.
Philex Gold Inc.
Philex continues to develop the Boyongon deposit in the Philippines led by
joint venture partner Anglo-American. Three drill rigs are currently operating
at the Boyongon project and Anglo-American is obligated to provide a prefeasibility
study before the end of the year. We believe that this excellent huge tonnage
gold/copper porphyry deposit discovered in 2000 is an excellent open pit operation
and Anglo will want to consolidate its interest. Consequently we expect that
the cash rich Philippine parent of Philex will buyout the minority shares and
Philex Gold is an excellent buy since the resource picture to date just gets
better. Buy this junior for the takeout.
Continental Minerals Corp.
We recently visited Continental Mineral's main asset is the Xietongmen copper/gold
porphyry deposit in Tibet, China. The deposit remains open in three directions.
Continental has filed a positive feasibility study and is waiting for permits.
Xeitongmen has 180 million tonnes grading 0.45 percent copper, 0.62 gpt gold,
0.64 gpt silver. China's largest nickel company, the Jinchuan Group is strategic
and major player will provided funding through to construction which expected
to begin in the middle of next year. The project is well located as far as
infrastructure and Jinchuan has opened a lot of doors. The feasibility study
calls for almost 200,000 ounces and 1.75 million of silver and 1.16 million
pounds of copper annually and a mining life in excess of 10 years. The shares
have gone sideways due to the lengthy permitting and regulator process but
much progress has bee made.
Continental has received all the necessary permits and the mining license
and project application permits are only needed. We expect the mining license
to be granted by yearend. Xietongmen is an excellent asset and with the backing
of the Hunter Dickson Group. Continental will be a major producer in China.
We believe the government is highly supportive of the project and will expedite
Xietongmen into early production.

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Analyst Disclosure
| Company Name |
Trading Symbol |
*Exchange |
Disclosure code |
| Barrick Gold |
ABX |
T |
1 |
| Kinross |
K |
T |
1 |
| Continental Minerals |
KMK |
V |
1,5 |
| Crystallex |
KRY |
T |
1 |
| Excellon |
EXN |
V |
1 |
| High River Gold |
HRG |
T |
1,5 |
| Philex |
PGI |
V |
1 |
| St. Andrew Goldfields |
SAS |
T |
1,5 |
| Unigold |
UGD |
V |
1 |
Disclosure Key: 1=The Analyst, Associate or member of
their household owns the securities of the subject issuer. 2=Maison Placements
Canada Inc. and/or affiliated companies beneficially own more than 1% of any
class of common equity of the issuers. 3=<Employee name> who is an officer
or director of Maison Placements Canada Inc. or it's affiliated companies serves
as a director or advisory Board Member of the issuer. 4=In the previous 12
months a Maison Analyst received compensation from the subject company. 5=Maison
Placements Canada Inc. has managed co-managed or participated in an offering
of securities by the issuer in the past 12 months. 6=Maison Placements Canada
Inc. has received compensation for investment banking and related services
from the issuer in the past 12 months. 7=Maison is making a market in an equity
or equity related security of the subject issuer. 8=The analyst has recently
paid a visit to review the material operations of the issuer. 9=The analyst
has received payment or reimbursement from the issuer regarding a recent visit.
T-Toronto; V-TSX Venture; NQ-NASDAQ; NY-New York Stock Exchange