Weary of lies, Americans may now prefer to choose a politician or group that
can offer the truth. And we're not just talking about the truth as represented
in George Orwell's "Ministry of Truth" in his novel "1984". Americans certainly
need more candor from their politicians, business leaders and government mandarins.
It's yet another new year and there is yet another bankruptcy, another bank
in trouble and another bailout. Last summer, Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve
chairman, warned us "not to expect significant spillover from the subprime
to the rest of the economy or to the financial system." Of course, the global
credit crunch began soon after. His predecessor, Alan Greenspan, once said: "I
believe then as now that the benefits from broadened home ownership are worth
the risk." But the Great Greenspan later recanted by saying: "I get the impression
that there were a lot of very questionable practices going on."
Not only have our mandarins lied or twisted the truth, others are guilty as
well. In the U.S. political primaries, Rudy Giuliani has claimed he added 12,000
police officers when he took office in New York in 2000. But he actually added
3,600 new officers because 7,100 of his
"new" officers were existing housing or transit police who were merged into
his police department after 9/11. Barack Obama said of politicians: They "don't
always say what they mean, or mean what they say." Then there was Jimmy Cayne
of Bear Stearns, who said in August that all was right and that the investment
bank was solidly profitable. Soon after, two of Bear Stearns' subprime hedge
funds closed, triggering the mortgage crisis of today. In Canada, the CIBC
once said its subprime problem involved no more than $330 million. Wrong. And
there were President George W. Bush's claims of Iraq's "weapons of mass destruction," which
were, of course, a lie. Bush had it wrong. The "weapons of mass destruction" were
lurking in Wall Street, not Baghdad.
True, the financial markets are always steeped in cynicism. But today there
is a special, urgent need for candor and truth. There are similarities between
now and other periods, particularly the Great Depression, as bubbles burst
following years of easy credit. Only now, the sums are bigger. In the '30s,
amid the loss of peoples' savings, homes and jobs, the banks were seen as villains
and the Glass Steagall Act separated the investment and commercial banks.
Today, the big banks are more or less operating as one, freed by the repeal
of the act during the Clinton presidency. In the ensuing years, the creation
of derivatives and deregulation caused the blurring of roles between the investment
banks and commercial banks. For a long golden period, the banks prospered,
leveraging their own financial products in an era of financial engineering.
Junk bonds, derivatives, off-balance sheet lending and new accounting were
all part of this financial liberalization.
Then the bubble burst. The tangled web of products almost appears to be too
big to unravel. But unraveling it surely is and every day there seem to be
more problems in this largely unregulated secondary market. The bottom line
is that while Wall Street faces billions in losses, up to two million families
could lose their homes and the politicians will tell us that everything is
all right. Where is a real Ministry of Truth when we need one?
The Contagion Spreads
Our view is that last summer's credit crunch was the inevitable result of
the collapse of the modern-day financial system. Low interest rates, cheap
money and the desire of Americans to make home ownership universal led to the
creation of a largely unregulated financial system that was leveraged to the
hilt. The tools at hand - structured derivatives - allowed Wall Street to build
securities out of any asset, replacing traditional or conventional bank loans.
Meantime, securitization gave credit to just about one and all, which democratized
lending. But there was a big hidden price. The collapse of the modern-day banking
system stems from the implosion of these exotic financial instruments, triggering
a reversal of the liquidity tide that once sustained the financial bubble.
In early 2007 it became clear that these securities were nothing but a house
of cards. Now the banking system is frozen. Wall Street has so far has taken
$100 billion of losses and the subsequent infusion of cash from the central
banks has failed to reverse the credit cycle or the bursting of the financial
bubble. Today, we have a full-fledged insolvency crisis following the bursting
of two bubbles: property and credit. Unfortunately, the debt remains and without
savings, the United States' huge trade imbalance, massive budgetary deficit
and $9 trillion national debt stretches an already thin capital base. The weakened
economy has raised concerns well beyond residential mortgages.
The unwinding of this modern-day credit system is going to take years rather
than months, which will monopolize the time and priorities of policy advisors,
central bankers and Wall Street. To be sure there will be a bull market in
litigators. Even so, the massive injection of liquidity and the back to back
rate cuts by the Fed will neither allow it to be business as usual nor help
the bankers' capital position. In the past, following the bursting of the S&L
bubble, the LTCM debacle or the tech wreck, central banks would only have to
lower interest rates and inject more money into the system. This time, though,
it is not liquidity that is in question. It is the huge leftover toxic debt
load. Debt must either be repaid or restructured. The markets will wait and
see the size and shape of the final reckoning, but gold will be a good thing
to have while the markets sort this out.
Wall Street's Margin Call
The credit markets are in a freefall, the result of the subprime meltdown.
And the contagion has spread to the much wider structured-debt market. In the
past decade, Wall Street extracted huge fees by creating structured products
that enabled it to spread credit risk, thereby altering the global financial
landscape. The sums were huge. The mortgage market alone is $11.3 trillion,
of which defaults may represent five percent or about $500 billion of loans.
And then, according to JP Morgan, there are more than $1.5 trillion of global
collateralized debt obligations (cdo), almost equal to the $2.2 trillion daily
money-market trade. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS),
the total outstanding derivatives could amount to more than $500-trillion.
What we have is a growth pattern of derivatives and defaults - a toxic mixture.
The troubles at Bear Stearns' hedge funds stemmed from borrowing $10 of investment
for every $1 of equity. The managers could not sell in time and the effect
of this imbedded leverage triggered a domino-like implosion in a thin market
- a margin call for Wall Street. Leverage works both ways. Today, Wall Street's
biggest firms are holding all sorts of credit instruments that are either impaired,
difficult to value or worth a fraction of what they are on the books. Despite
a cash infusion by Bear Stearns, the fifth largest player on Wall Street, unwinding
the hedge funds wiped out the available capital and the funds were forced to
close, triggering today's collapse.
The mortgage meltdown has so far resulted in $100 billion of losses. Meantime,
an injection of more than $60 billion of capital has been needed to shore up
the investment banks' balance sheets. Citicorp has so far received two equity
injections after recording the worst loss in its 196 year history, one that
surpassed that of the Great Depression. Although the fourth quarter was one
of record losses for many firms, those numbers are suspect, given doubts about
the value of their Level 3 assets (assets for which there is no market) and
the growing uncertainty of derivative-based products. And rather than offer
them into a "no bid" market, the banks instead have brought these off-balance
assets on to their balance sheets. The toxic bet gets worse. Earlier, the banks
had "insured" their investments by hedging and/or swapping them with other
institutions. However, these insurance entities neither had sufficient capital
nor the wherewithal to fulfill their obligations.
Potential losses from subprime mortgages alone are put at $500 billion, falling
on investors, foreigners and the already weakened Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Bankers' and debtors' responsibilities have become one. Regardless of the actual
losses, investors should focus on the risk capital of the big investment banks.
Which is why the bank are scrambling for fresh money, and not for yesterday's
losses, but for tomorrow's. America's banks and the odd French bank are in
peril. Unfortunately, a quick back-of-the- envelope calculation easily wipes
out Wall Street's capital. And that is impossible since the losses to the financial
system cannot exceed the underlying defaults. Oh yes. Morgan Stanley has only
$35 billion of capital, Goldman Sachs has but $39-billion and Citigroup, after
the capital injection, has $128 billion. Like Bear Stearns' fund managers,
all these big banks leveraged their capital bases in the good times. Now the
bad bets are coming home to roost.
Tellingly, the Achilles heel of this modern-day financial system is counter-party
risk. That is the weak link in the chain as each party tries to push the prospective
risk on to others in a game of financial musical chairs. Even with stricter
Basel II international banking rules, it took the world's leading derivatives
player, SocGen, six days to go public with the news of its rogue trader.
Yet Another Bubble Burst
The Americans have gone from being the world's biggest creditors to being
the biggest debtors and, since their savings are depleted, they must face the
prospect of depending upon others. To finance its deficits, the United States
was hungry for money from anywhere it could find it. Now America's banks are
following suit, turning to foreign entities for financial lifelines. Americans
are also selling off assets to satisfy their debts which is akin to selling
the family silverware.
In the last decade, central banks flooded the market with paper, creating
a series of bubbles with too much cheap money chasing too few quality opportunities.
First came the tech bubble, then the property bubble and now the financial
bubble. Indeed, the latest bailout is just part of a seeming never-ending series
of bubbles. The United States has been living beyond its means for more than
half a century, with excessive money creation creating those bubbles.
America's indebtedness forced the Fed to print excess dollars, which piled
up in China, the Middle East and Japan. Foreigners hold 44 percent of U.S.
debt, up from 30 percent in 2001. Total federal debt stands at $9 trillion.
However, including direct and indirect debt obligations as well as off-balance
sheet liabilities, David Walker, the U.S. Comptroller General calculates America's
debt load at a whopping $53 trillion. Recently Mr. Walker warned about his
country's
"addiction to debt" and the U.S. won't be able to grow its way out of a long
term credit crunch.
"We've never seen anything like what we are headed into," he warned.
U.S. Dollar: The Next Big Lie
For the past five years, a "strong dollar" policy was a big lie. Against the
euro, the greenback has fallen 40 percent to a record low. By the end of last
year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that 26 percent of the
world's foreign currency reserves are now held in euros, up from 18 percent.
In the third quarter, the US dollar's share had fallen to 63.8 percent, in
part due to doubts about the Federal Reserve's determination to maintain the
dollar's purchasing power.
The central banks' helicopters have already started dropping bundles of cash
on a global basis. The stock markets' reaction to the central banks' bailout
has so far been negative. It appears that the banks are simply pushing on a
string. To date, the bailouts have surpassed those of the S&L crisis, the
Russian default in 1998 and the collapse of giant hedge fund Long Term Capital
Management.
America once exported capital to Europe and Latin America, exercising its
power by financial means with "dollar" diplomacy. The most famous example was
the Marshall Plan, which rebuilt a war-devastated Europe. Under George W. Bush,
things changed. The surpluses have become deficits. America has come to depend
upon foreign investors and now needs a Marshall Plan for itself. What happens
when all those dollar holders want to trade them for euros or gold?
Too Much Red Ink
Financial markets and policymakers are in a state of denial. Sadly for Americans,
their assets and currency are being devalued every day. And for the two million
homeowners who might lose their homes this year, the Great Depression has already
arrived. This time, monetary policy has failed to work and Bush's $150 billion
federal government stimulus plan will not fare any better.
Americans simply spend too much and save too little. They have accumulated
too much debt to sustain their lavish spending styles. More spending by lowering
rates and borrowing more are a prescription for bankruptcy. The world's central
banks put almost a trillion dollars into the system at yearend and politicians
are scrambling to come up with new and improved schemes to reliquefy the system
in the form of more government spending. Policymakers are also looking to overhaul
the financial system and ironically there is talk of separating the investment
banks and the commercial banks again. In Britain, they too are talking of a
radical revamp of their banking system to avoid a repeat of a Northern Rock-type
collapse.
America today absorbs about 75 percent of the world's surplus savings. However,
a weakened Wall Street can no longer fix America's debt problem. America's
trade deficit grew because its savings are less than investment. Between 1997
and 2007, the current deficit increased almost six times from an annual rate
of 1.25 percent of GDP to 7 percent. The US needs over $2.5 billion a day of
foreign capital to finance its growing deficits. Its consumers for example
saw a dramatic jump in household debt to a record $2.5 trillion, which rises
to $13.6 trillion if mortgages are added. And since 1995, mortgage debt as
a percentage of disposable income increased from 56 percent in ten years to
almost 100 percent. Credit card debt alone is almost $1 trillion. In November,
consumer debt rose 7.5 percent led by credit card debt which rose 11.3 percent.
Reflecting growing concerns over the United States' ability to maintain its
financial health in light of its huge debt load and the need to finance its
mammoth health care and Social Security costs, Moody's projects that increases
in spending would "cause major fiscal pressure" in years to come, jeopardizing
America's stellar triple-A credit rating. That is not a big lie. In December,
the Director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which advises Congress
on the federal budget, said that the central issue would be the "fiscal challenge" Americans
must face. However, a rating change by its own agencies would confirm that
the world's largest creditor might not be able to handle its repayment responsibilities
and instead monetize its debts.
What Happens If They Trade Dollars?
George W. Bush inherited a surplus and leaves with the largest debt in America's
history. Bush was the biggest spender since LBJ who also had a war to fund.
If one includes the cost of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, defence spending
has gone up almost 90 percent since 2001.Spending has increased 42 percent
during his presidency, and he has yet to veto a single spending bill. In 2001,
the Fed cut interest rates by over 550 basis points, ultimately creating more
bubbles. Faced with the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression and
the most severe credit crunch in the past two decades, the Fed so far has lowered
interest rates by 225 basis points. And yet, even with a pickup in inflation
and widening interest rate spreads as a result of the credit crunch, the Fed
says it is still ready to lower interest rates yet again. The markets are hoping
another round of fresh debt will bail everybody out. Another big lie.
Asia, The World's Banker
Asia and the Middle East have accumulated huge surpluses and watched the Americans
absorb the growing savings surpluses. We believe Asia is the trigger for global
adjustment and has become the world's banker. Economic power and wealth has
shifted from the West to the East, from its oil companies to mining companies
to auto companies and now Wall Street's biggest banks. The sovereign-controlled
wealth funds of the Middle East and Asia are the big new Wall Street players.
The foreign bailouts are a de facto foreign nationalization of America's financial
system. Already, Singapore's big fund has bailed out UBS and Merrill Lynch.
Yet the injection of cash has done little to solve the long-term problems or
indebtedness.
The shift in capital flows comes as China's foreign exchange reserves stand
at $1.5 trillion and which are still piling up at a relentless pace. Instead
of buying Japanese golf courses, the Chinese are buying into the capital markets
and taking advantage of Wall Street's meltdown. They are not alone. Russia
has almost $500 billion and the Middle East kingdoms, flush with petrodollars,
are plowing money into Wall Street's biggest, the bedrock of the U.S. financial
system. While much is made of China's resource-hungry appetite, China has gone
on a buying spree of financial institutions, not for bricks and mortar, but
for capital market expertise to assist its nascent capital market and give
China access to the global financial markets. Today, four of the world's top
10 stocks are Chinese, with PetroChina becoming the world's first trillion-dollar
company by market capitalization.
Inflation Is Back
Our politicians have told us there is no inflation today. And that is yet
another big lie. The U.S. inflation rate jumped four percent last year, the
highest in 17 years and that is without food and energy. Wholesale inflation
jumped 63 percent in 2007, the most in 26 years. And bloated with dollars,
inflation has picked up in China, the Middle East and Russia. The inflation
jump limits the Fed's option on rates. The pickup in inflation also comes at
a time when food prices, particularly agri prices, are at record highs. Soybean
prices are at a 34-year high, corn at an 11- year peak. Wheat is close to $13
a bushel for the first time. The jump in food prices also comes when much of
America's grain is used for ethanol, which is subsidized by the U.S government,
suggesting it is more important to drive an SUV than to feed people.
While there is a pickup in commodity inflation, energy costs rose 17 percent
while gasoline has jumped 29 percent. Inflation is back at the very time when
the economy is slowing down. We believe cost-push inflation will cause stagflation,
a potentially devastating cocktail for heavily indebted Americans.
Gold Is The Currency Of The Realm
Under the Bretton Woods monetary system, which lasted from 1944 to 1971, currencies
were exchangeable into dollars at fixed rates and the dollar was exchangeable
into gold. Central banks could not simply print money without an eye on their
reserves of gold. But following two oil shocks and bloated spending to finance
the Vietnam War, President Nixon closed the gold window when foreigners demanded
gold in lieu of dollars. Then, as now, a savings-challenged America printed
dollars via its banking system, pumping out trillions of fiat obligations.
Thus the modern day financial system was born amid the collapse of Bretton
Woods. For a time, the dollar became the world's currency, allowing the United
States to consume more than it produced and to finance its debts with dollars.
Financial liberalization spread and for a time the dollar did not need the
backing of gold or, in fact, a policeman to supervise the new system. After
all, the dollar was backed by the strength of America's reputation. Until now.
Today, a massive injection of liquidity by the world's central banks has not
helped a collapsing dollar. Last summer's convulsions in the financial markets
will not be cured by more money, but the need for a recapitalization of debt
or a new Bretton Woods. The age-old recipe of more spending is doomed to fail.
The problems are far deeper. It is not about liquidity but solvency. Much of
the leverage has fallen on a banking system that does not have enough capital
to back the huge derivatives whose underlying assets have soured. As in the
'30s, the deleveraging process will not be helped by more dollars, but by the
recapitalization of Wall Street's flimsy capital base.
America faces a long tough road to solvency.
Gold has surged more than 40 percent since the credit collapse in August,
hitting $930 an ounce. We believe that gold is an alternative investment to
the dollar for central banks and investors. Gold's supply is finite. Dollars
are not. It cannot be printed or reflated like fiat currencies. The gold price
is an index of investor anxiety, of which there is great deal. Gold's recent
rise is due to nervousness about the U.S. dollar, the credit woes and supply
worries over South African production. Gold is the ultimate safe haven and
the new, old currency.
Bankers lie. Politicians lie. And now even central bankers sometimes lie.
Gold tells the truth. It is the benchmark. Wall Street is in trouble. Gold
is an alternative asset to stocks, dollars and, in a time of uncertainty, a
safe harbour. Gold at $900 an ounce is telling us the truth, that the financial
bubble has burst and a major adjustment lies ahead. Gold will be this cycle's
currency of the realm.
How High?
Gold spent 27 years building a base, in the meantime bottoming at $250 an
ounce. After it broke out from the previous record $850 high, most pundits
are bravely forecasting $1,000 an ounce. It is our view that $1,000 is simply
an intermediate target and that with a 27-year base, a "perfect storm" of drivers
will push gold to be the ultimate 10 bagger investment, outperforming currencies,
commodities and the stock market. Those drivers include a collapsing U.S. dollar,
Wall Street's financial woes, inflation concerns, soaring demand from China
and India, record investment demand and chronic geopolitical tensions. On the
supply side, fewer gold supplies are expected due to the South African power
outages. China has displaced South Africa as the world largest producer, but
China's mines are limited in reserves. The lack of significant gold discoveries
(Southwestern was yet another fraud), a "NIMBY" approach by North American
regulators, higher taxes and escalating costs will also limit new production.
The bottom-line? Gold will peak at $2,500 an ounce.
Amazingly, Canadian gold stocks have lagged bullion by a huge margin. While
gold rose more than 31 percent last year, the TSX gold index actually fell
five percent. The underperformance was due to a stronger Canadian dollar, poor
quarterly earnings, rising industry costs, competition from ETFs and, most
important, the lack of industry growth in production and reserves. For some
time, we noted that gold stocks would underperform until gold recorded a new
high, which we recall also happened with oil stocks when the price of oil broke
a new high at $40 a barrel. It is our belief that investors are particularly
complacent nonbelievers. But this has changed with gold above $920 and, at
long last, gold stocks are expected to outperform bullion by a 2:1 margin.
Indeed, there will be a degree of catching up and, with fewer players following
the orgy of mergers and acquisitions, in a classic case of too much money chasing
too few stocks.
The senior producers continue to attract institutional money more because
of their liquidity than their growth prospects. We expect the big-cap stocks
to attract money and lead the way. Newmont has been a laggard and is
due for a catch-up run now that it is concentrating on its core businesses. Barrick has
done well, but will falter in the long run unless it reverses or offsets the
very expensive Pascua-Lama 9.5 million-ounce hedge position. Indeed, with a
mark-tomarket deficit of $4 billion, the higher the price of gold, the more
expensive and less likely Pascau-Lama becomes. Goldcorp and Agnico-Eagle have
performed well. Agnico-Eagle has one of the best growth prospects, growing
from 360,000 ounces of annual production to over 1.5 million ounces by 2010. Kinross has
bumped up its annual production estimate and is benefitting from an upgrade
of reserves since the bulk of its mines are open-pit. Kinross is also an ideal
takeover target, particularly as an antidote against the heavily hedged senior
producers such as Barrick or Anglo. In the intermediate category, Goldcorp, IAMGold and Yamana will
do as well as the gold index, but the dilution of last year's deals must be
absorbed by the market.
Kinross shares were among the best performers, due in part to the granting
of the lease for the big Kupol mining project in northern Russia. Kupol is
largely built and the company has about $170 million left to spend at this
cash-cow project. At Paracutu in Brazil, the expansion will boost production
by the end of the 2008 first half. In addition, Buckhorn is almost complete,
so Kinross is on track to produce two million ounces this year and 2.6 million
ounces by 2009. However, the company floated a $400 million convertible debenture
at a time when it has almost $300 million in cash. In addition, with cash flow
in excess of $750 million, this is more than enough to take care of its capex
plans. So the temptation to fill its coffers is poor advice because it will
put a cap on the stock in the near term. Nonetheless, Kinross has an excellent
pipeline of projects plus its important two million unhedged ounces, which
makes it an ideal takeover candidate. We thus recommend the shares, particularly
on the weakness following the issuance of the convertible debenture.
We believe that the best opportunity is in the third tier of stocks, particularly
from a risk/reward point of view. The waterfall effect will eventually trickle
downward as the big caps and intermediate caps become expensive. And despite
obvious frauds such Southwestern Gold, the smaller developers and producers
will do particularly well and are attractively positioned. For example, we
like High River Gold, which is poised to put the huge world-class Prognoz
silver project into production in northern Russia. We also like Eldorado and
expect the coming court decision to uphold the lower court decision, which
will be favourable for the Kisladag operation. We also like Etruscan,
which has two mines in production but, more important, also has a massive land
spread in West Africa. Aurizon is also favoured for newly opened Casa
Berardi and its large exploration package. Among the junior explorers, our
list includes: Philex, USGold, St. Andrew Goldfields, Continental
Minerals, Detour Gold, Unigold, and Crystallex in
Venezuela. Detour Gold recently began another drilling campaign to upgrade
its growing openpit resource of almost five million ounces and is an ideal
takeover candidate. Indeed, we advocate a package approach for the following
junior explorers because all are takeover candidates.
Recommendations
Aurizon Mines ltd.
Aurizon is expected to produce 170,000 ounces at its 100-percent-owned Casa
Barardi mine. Mill recoveries at the mine were 91.8 percent in the quarter
and total cash costs are anticipated at just under $400 an ounce. Aurizon
plans to spend about $15.4 million on development and should be applauded
for bringing this mine into production. Casa Baradi remains open at depth
and the area continues to hold strong exploration potential. Aurizon plans
to spend $10-million in the area. It is also the largest land owner in Kipawa
and the rumours are that there are gold and/or uranium discoveries. Aurizon
flew an airborne survey and there are many targets. We continue to recommend
this junior.
Continental Minerals Corp.
We visited Continental's Xietongmen project in Tibet last November. Since then,
the company has received another two permits and is left with one more remaining,
which is expected to be contracted shortly. We believe the permit will allow
the company to build Xietongmen, which will be the second largest copper
mine in China. Jinchuan, the largest nickel producer in China, has increased
its stake in Continental to 14 percent through the exercise of warrants.
We believe that the acquisition by this strategic player is positive. Sometime
this year, we also expect more information on the newly discovered Newtongmen
deposit, which could double the life of the project. We continue to favour
Continental for its prospects and important near-term developments.
Estruscan Resources Inc.
Estruscan is a Canadian-based gold producer with two mines and a huge 10,000
km2 land spread in West Africa. The Samira and Youga mines produce about
60,000 ounces a year in total and the company has an advanced exploration
program at Agbaou in the Ivory Coast, where feasibility drilling was completed
last year. Agbaou is 85 percent owned and so far there are three satellite
deposits. A resource calculation is expected soon. Etruscan has a steady
development pipeline from Agbaou, Finkolo (Mali South) and Banfora in Burkina
Faso. Etruscan should spend $15 million on exploration, so news should be
forthcoming. Purchase is recommend here.
Excellon Resources Inc.
Excellon shares pulled back because of a wildcat strike at its Platosa silver
mine in Durango, Mexico. The company will produce 2.5 million ounces and
is now debt-free. In this quarter, the company will be hurt by a strike at
Penoles Naica mill, but the strike is now over. The Naica mill limits Excellon's
production, so the company has been fast-tracking a mill that will allow
it to increase production. Current plans call for a flotation plant onsite
to make lead and zinc concentrates. The mill will be able to handle 350 tonnes
of ore a day and is slated to start up by the end of 2008. Meantime, the
company continues to prove up sufficient resources and has an ambitious $11
million exploration program. We continue to believe that Excellon is one
of the most attractive silver producers. It has a 10-bagger potential and
its exploration footprint is one of the more promising areas of Mexico.
Detour Gold Corporation
Detour Gold produced an updated resource estimate that shows an open-pit resource
of almost 4.8 million ounces. The company has found higher-grade initial
mineralized zones in the hanging wall and drilling to date has expanded the
model pit shell. Detour Lake is in the backyard of the majors and we expect
this company to be acquired. With less then 43 million shares outstanding
and production capability nearing, Detour is an ideal takeover candidate.
Buy.
High River Gold Mines
High River is expected to produce 300,000 ounces this year from production
at Taparko and Berezitovy. The company has been expanding Prognoz, the highest-grade
silver deposit in Russia with multiple veins. NI43-101 compliant resources
will give news and the company has taken a 17-tonne bulk sample. Moreover,
High River has an active exploration program in Bissa in West Africa, so
there is a steady diet of news. Now that High River has a solid production
base, Prognoz and the exploration program give this company blue-sky potential.
In addition, there are ongoing discussions of dividending the stock so that
a pure Russian entity could be created. We recommend the shares here.
Philex Gold Inc.
We expect a feasibility study from Anglo to be filed shortly at Philex Gold's
Boyongon property in the Philippines. Anglo has had more than five drills
turning and the company has so far grown the resource steadily. We believe
there is more than five million ounces of gold in the envelope and Philex,
the parent, will likely take in the minority to put this property into production.
Buy.

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Analyst Disclosure
| Company Name |
Trading Symbol |
*Exchange |
Disclosure code |
| Barrick Gold |
ABX |
T |
1 |
| Kinross |
K |
T |
1 |
| Continental Minerals |
KMK |
V |
1,5 |
| Crystallex |
KRY |
T |
1 |
| Excellon |
EXN |
V |
1 |
| High River Gold |
HRG |
T |
1,5 |
| Philex |
PGI |
V |
1 |
| St. Andrew Goldfields |
SAS |
T |
1,5 |
| Unigold |
UGD |
V |
1 |
Disclosure Key: 1=The Analyst, Associate or member of
their household owns the securities of the subject issuer. 2=Maison Placements
Canada Inc. and/or affiliated companies beneficially own more than 1% of any
class of common equity of the issuers. 3=<Employee name> who is an officer
or director of Maison Placements Canada Inc. or it's affiliated companies serves
as a director or advisory Board Member of the issuer. 4=In the previous 12
months a Maison Analyst received compensation from the subject company. 5=Maison
Placements Canada Inc. has managed co-managed or participated in an offering
of securities by the issuer in the past 12 months. 6=Maison Placements Canada
Inc. has received compensation for investment banking and related services
from the issuer in the past 12 months. 7=Maison is making a market in an equity
or equity related security of the subject issuer. 8=The analyst has recently
paid a visit to review the material operations of the issuer. 9=The analyst
has received payment or reimbursement from the issuer regarding a recent visit.
T-Toronto; V-TSX Venture; NQ-NASDAQ; NY-New York Stock Exchange