Gold
As expected, gold reached the greatly anticipated and important psychological
mark of $1000 per ounce in the futures market yesterday. Profit taking subsequently
saw it sell off slightly. Gold was up $13.10 to $992.30 per ounce in trading
in New York yesterday and silver was up 39 cents to $20.34 per ounce. In
Asian and early European trading gold consolidated and remained in a range
between $993 and $1000. The London AM Gold Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was
at $997.00, £491.617 and €641.158 (from $975.75, £483.26
and €630.90 yesterday).
We are at or close to new record nominal highs in gold in most major currencies
and £500 gold is likely in the coming days.
The dollar continued to plummet yesterday against all major currencies including
the finite currency that is gold and reached the fabled $1,000 gold in the
futures market. The dollar reached new record lows against the euro at 1.5647,
reached parity with the Swiss franc and fell below the very important 100 yen
mark (see FX below). The dollar also fell against commodities, the majority
of which again surged in value yesterday with oil reaching over $111 per barrel.
Inflation is already high and increasing internationally and the recent surge
in commodity prices has yet to feed into the inflation statistics. Today's
Eurozone inflation data and US CPI data will likely further confirm that inflation
and indeed stagflation is taking or has taken hold. Yesterdays retail sales
in the US were very poor and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey
for March will likely not make pretty reading.
Safe haven demand for gold is likely to increase in the coming months as investors
seek to diversify and protect themselves from stagflation and a likely serious
US recession. Further systemic risk was seen in the growing meltdown in the
hedge fund sector and dangerously illiquid trading in the credit markets and
much of the capital markets.
The inflation adjusted high of $2,300 per ounce looks a near certainty in
the coming years given the myriad of strong fundamental factors driving this
market place. Especially with Ben Bernanke's huge fleet of jumbo helicopters
throwing billions and billions of fiat dollars at the deepening credit and
solvency crisis.
| 14-Mar-08 |
Last |
1 Month |
YTD |
1 Year |
5 Year |
| Gold $ |
996.60 |
9.71% |
19.59% |
54.59% |
196.51% |
| Silver |
20.62 |
19.52% |
39.59% |
60.70% |
355.14% |
| Oil |
110.17 |
15.66% |
11.09% |
88.71% |
211.39% |
| FTSE |
5,711 |
-2.87% |
-11.25% |
-4.83% |
58.54% |
| Nikkei |
12,242 |
-10.16% |
-20.03% |
-26.59% |
52.97% |
| S&P 500 |
1,315 |
-2.47% |
-10.41% |
-5.16% |
57.87% |
| ISEQ |
6,165 |
-5.67% |
-11.09% |
-34.70% |
58.41% |
| EUR/USD |
1.5546 |
6.17% |
6.58% |
17.48% |
44.66% |
| © 2008 GoldandSilverInvestments.com |
Support and Resistance
Gold's support is now at $960. Resistance is at today's new record nominal
high of $998.55 and at the psychologically and technically important $1,000
per ounce mark.
FX Commentary
The US dollar is on the ropes. It has fallen to fresh lows against the Euro,
it has traded below 100 against the Yen and it has fallen heavily against
oil, wheat, soybeans and gold.
And still Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson opines "a strong dollar is in the
nations interest", with about as much conviction as an ex-President explaining
his relationship with a Whitehouse intern. The market is starting to rapidly
move out of the infinitely creatable Greenback and into finite commodity assets.
This is inflationary and who wants to own a low yielding currency with high
inflation?
The downward spiral continues. Are we now experiencing what Jim Rogers spoke
about as the dollar slid through 1.5000 against the Euro: "you ain't seen nothing
yet!"
But nothing moves up or down in a straight line in the markets so a violent
short term retracement can't be ruled out. Co-ordinated intervention by the
world's Central Banks could be one cause and if you are to believe Hank Paulson,
this should be expected.
Strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say that the dollar's
record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to prop up the
currency in 13 years.
Bloomberg reports that a key economic adviser to the German government has
suggested that the ECB should directly intervene in the foreign exchange markets
before the euro-dollar exchange rate gets out of control. "The uncontrolled
increase of the euro rate vis-a-vis the dollar threatens employment growth
in the euro area," said Peter Bofinger, one of Germany's so-called "five wise
men" appointed to advise the government on economic matters.
If currency intervention did take place it would be another short term panacea.
The free market will ultimately dictate the value of all assets and no amount
of manipulation of currencies or gold will prop them up (in fiat currencies
case), keep them down (in gold's case) or stop them finding their true fundamental
and intrinsic value (in both fiat currencies and gold).
Further dollar weakness is likely, the bell for the end of the final round
has not rung, the greenback is still on the ropes and its guard is down. If
only it had a few more ounces of gold to prop it up.
Sterling has risen against the plummeting dollar but this is a function of
dollar weakness and not sterling strength. Sterling remains close to all time
lows versus the euro and is showing weakness against other majors as well.
Silver
Silver is trading at $20.40/20.44 at 1030GMT.
PGMs
Platinum is trading at $2100/2110 (1030GMT).
Palladium is trading at $506/512 per ounce (1030GMT).