A while ago David Malpass, financial writer and chief economist at Bear Stearns,
(and I do mean that Bear Stearns) argued that US savings are under reported
because they exclude "cash flow improvements from realized gains on equities,
houses, and mortgage refinancing." Now I am not referring to Malpass as a means
to take a swipe at Bear Stearns and the quality of its advisors: that's the
market's job. What Malpass did was to inadvertently draw attention to the confusion
that reigns among the economic commentariat with respect to the nature of saving
and its critical importance for economic welfare.
Most economists define savings as deferred consumption. But this is a very
misleading definition that confuses the demand to hold cash with savings. To
the Austrian school of economics savings is a process that defers present consumption
in favour of greater future consumption by expanding the capital structure
and by doing so increases future output. This definition clearly excludes cash
balances. Using the Austrian definition we see that "cash flow improvements
from realized gains on equities" cannot in themselves be defined as savings.
To be savings they must be invested.
Housing is a consumption good, not "a form of savings" as so many economists
would argue. The fundamental difference between a capital good (future good)
and a consumption good (present good) is that the services of a capital good
are indirectly consumed while the services of a consumer good are directly
consumed. Menger, the founder of the Austrian school, not only treated capital
goods as something concrete rather than abstract he also explained that these
goods have to be arranged in a particular order so that they formed an integrated
whole. He therefore stated that
The classification of goods into means of production and consumption goods
(goods of higher order and goods of first order) is scientifically justified
. . . (Carl Menger, Principles of Economics, Libertarian Press, Inc.,
1994, p. 303).
It follows that the fundamental difference economic difference between a hamburger
and a house is not durability but time. In the hands of consumers they become
consumer goods. While the direct services of a house can be consumed over many
years, the services of a hamburger are consumed in minutes. On the other hand,
capital goods are used to directly and indirectly produce consumer goods. Another
defining feature of capital goods is that they are reproducible, i.e., land
is not capital. Some Austrians disagree on the point of capital and durability.
Hayek considered houses to be capital goods "so far as they are non-permanent".
Additionally,
we have to replace them by something if we want to keep our income stream
at a given level... (Frederich von Hayek, The Pure Theory of Capital,
The University of Chicago Press, 1975, pp. 77-78).
The problem here is that if durability becomes a defining factor what is to
stop anyone from classifying vintage cars, televisions, books, furniture, cutlery,
wedding rings, etc., as capital? The result is that capital would lose its
true meaning. We can now see that the misunderstanding stems from confusing
durability with capital goods. Durability is incidental and in no way can define
a capital good.
It therefore follows that the US Commerce Department is perfectly correct
in defining "money used to pay down a mortgage into the same basket as money
used for everyday consumption". Are pension funds savings? Well what Americans
call 401(k) deposits are savings but only to the extent that they fit the Austrian
definition of investment. Where any 401(k) deposits are "invested" in consumption
goods they become 'dissavings'.
As evidence that Americans are saving it has been noted by some commentators
that the Forbes 400 have increased their net worth by an enormous amount
during the last several years . So what? Considering the amount of credit the
Fed has poured into the US economy over the last few years much of this wealth
might turnout out to be largely illusionary. One only has to be reminded of
the recent collapse of Bear Stearns to realise just how quickly paper wealth
can be wiped out.
Unfortunately, the idea that home ownership should be included in any measure
of savings is a fallacy that just won't die. Treating this type of equity as
saving leads to the absurd view that because the United States has the highest
rate of home ownership in its history Americans cannot therefore be spendthrifts.
But as I have already explained, houses are consumption goods. Any genuine
investments liquidated in favour of housing are dissavings.
For example, if some investors sell their shares in order to buy much larger
houses they are clearly dissaving. Whether their actions would result in a
fall in total savings depends entirely on whether others in the market place
increase their savings by at least the same amount. The fact that their houses
are assets doesn't change this situation any more than if they spent their
money on vintage cars. To state what should be a truism: while all savings
are assets, not all assets are savings.
Although entrepreneurship is what drives an economy it is savings that fuel
it. Without savings an economy will eventually regress and living standards
will fall. So are Americans putting enough away to satisfy their future material
aspirations? I honestly don't know. However, the lesson that Asians understand
and many Americans now need to relearn is that savings and not consumption
underpin living standards. And this is why the Democrats' proposed tax increase
could sink the US economy.
According to Irwin M. Stelzer: "The era of free-market, no-government-intervention
purists is over, if indeed it ever existed". (The Credit Crisis of 2008:
As was the case a century ago, it's good to have a J.P. Morgan when you need
one, National Review Online, 31 March 2008, Volume 013, Issue 28). Stelzer
relates the case of the Knickerbocker Trust Company that capsized in 1907 when
the boom bust. Fortunately for shareholders J.P. Morgan came riding to the
rescue. As is usual with economic pundits, Mr Stelzer got it wrong.
At the root of the boom and the Knickerbocker collapse was a monetary expansion
set in motion by the system of reserve city and central reserve city banks.
When the expansion ceased a credit crunch emerged and the Knickerbocker company
found that the securities it had accepted as collateral were now worthless.
Once again, the real lesson has not been learnt.