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March 24, 2008

Bulls vs. Bears: Week 13
by M.A. Nystrom

If you're reading this, you're probably like me in this respect: Watching the market try to make up its mind is fun, the same way that watching a game is. The best part about this game is that you don't have to wait until Sunday - it is always on, and there is no shortage of pre- and post game analysis. True, it is always the same two teams - the Bulls vs. Bears, but each day they go at it with a vengeance, and recently the games have been nail biters! Furthermore (and perhaps the very best part) is that there is absolutely nothing illegal about placing bets on your favorite team for both fun and profit. In fact, you're encouraged to do just that.

Today was a blowout day for the Bulls. In spite of all the bad news over the last few weeks, the Bulls and Bears have battled to a deadlock. On the Dow chart, that deadlock appears as a trading range, with the upper bound at 12,750, and the lower bound around 11,750. That is a pretty big field of play, but so far, neither team has been able to push past the red zone and into the end zone. As I've been cautioning over the past several weeks, it isn't prudent to pick sides just yet - both the Bulls and the Bears are full of trick plays and surprises (especially since the Bulls have help from the Fed). However, whichever team can bust out of this range is likely to go on an extended winning streak. So watch the range and prepare to act accordingly!

While I'm fundamentally bearish, I've learned my lesson the hard way to stand aside and listen to the market. Which brings me back to my point. Even though it was a blowout for the Bulls today (Dow up 187), all the action still took place within the confines of the range. This makes it hard to pick sides just yet. Rest assured that any data you might use in your handicapping - whether you got it from the Wall Street Journal or your own private calculations - both the Bulls and the Bears have certainly already discounted it and more. They've used every piece of information - both known and unknown - to the best of their advantage.

So chalk it up for the Bulls today. They won the battle fair and square, of course with a lot of help recently from the Fed. You might think it is unfair that the Bulls have such a powerful ally as the Fed on their side. But the Bears have a powerful ally of their own - one even more powerful than the Fed. It is called Reality.

All this being said, it does look promising for the Bulls. However, less than a week ago it looked equally promising for the Bears. So just remember that looks can be deceiving. For you to win at this game requires one thing and one thing only, and that is being on the right team. Bulls or Bears, it doesn't matter as long as your team is winning. The only thing that is certain about this game that you must know how to submit to the market's will and to go with the flow.

Stay tuned and keep your eye on the range. For updates, subscribe to my low volume, no spam email announce list.

Michael Nystrom
Editor
www.depression2.tv
www.bullnotbull.com

M.A. Nystrom is a private investor and consultant currently living near Boston. He earned his MBA from the University of Washington with a specialty in International Marketing. Following his retirement from the US securities industry, he picked up the hobby of web design, a trade he now plies at his big-picture investment oriented website www.depression2.tv.

Copyright © 2005-2009 M.A. Nystom

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