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April 13, 2008

Personal Trades for April
by Bill Rempel

Last week, I mentioned in the comments at The Rempel Report that I would be switching the system that I follow for my personal trades, moving from Rotational to Aggressive. I believe that, over the longer term, I'm more likely to achieve my personal absolute return benchmarks having made this switch. While Rotational has advantages over Aggressive, such as scalability, lower turnover, and probable tax efficiency, for my account size those advantages don't mean as much as they will in a decade or so.

All moves are market at open on Monday.

These are my current positions and weights, they will all be sold.
Agriculture (DBA) - 10.7%
Brazil (EWZ) - 10%
Swiss Franc (FXF) - 9.0%
Gold Miners (GDX) - 9.0%
Gold (GLD) - 11.0%
Treasuries 7-10 Yr (IEF) - 8.9%
Silver (SLV) - 9.2%
Steel (SLX) - 9.5%
Oil (USO) - 12.8%
Metals & Mining (XME) - 9.4%
Cash - 0.5%

I will grab 10% weights in the following stocks,
American Physicians (AMPH)
Compton Petroleum Co (CMZ)
Gencor Industries In (GENC)
Koppers Holdings Inc (KOP)
Olympic Steel, Inc. (ZEUS)
Patterson-Uti Energy (PTEN)
Quaker Chem Cp (KWR)
Tecumseh Products Co (TECUA)

I will grab a 20% weight in Fairfax Finl Hld Sub (FFH).

For more reference on the stocks selected, see my recent post on the Aggressive system.

If you'd like to become of member of The Rempel Report, you can register here. At The Rempel Report, I track model portfolios for four different mechanical trading systems, as well as my personal portfolio, and disclose all results (good and bad) at regular intervals. Members receive email notification of new posts and can contribute to the site through comments. Registration is still free!

Bill Rempel
The Rempel Report

Disclaimer: Nothing at The Rempel Report, or any communication from The Rempel Report or its author, should be construed as personal advice, on investing or anything else, and at all times you are responsible for your own actions and you should perform your own due diligence. I'm not an investment professional, and you should probably consult with one, in addition to doing your own due diligence, before making any investment decisions.

I may have a beneficial position in any potential investment I mention. My positions in, and opinions of, those potential investments may change over time. I have no obligation to reveal those positions, and if I should reveal those positions, I am under no obligation to notify you, though this site or through any other means, if I change those positions.

While I do try to verify much of the data presented, I can make mistakes. I rely on third party vendors for data, and sometimes that data could be incorrect. Therefore, I cannot and will not be held liable for incorrect or erroneous data presented in text, table, chart, or other format. This is one more reason why you should consult with an investment professional, in addition to doing your own due diligence, before making any investment decisions.

Modeling is prone to error, and no statistical model is perfect. The output from statistical or predictive modeling should be viewed with skepticism.

Fundamental analysis is based on examinations of company filings such as income and cash flow statements, balance sheets, quarterly and annual filings, proxies, and other such items. Even though a company appears fundamentally sound today, that doesn't imply they actually are, or will remain, fundamentally sound. Fundamentals can change over time, and there is always the possibility that the company filed information that was either fraudulent or incorrect. I might make an oversight or error when examining company filings. In many cases, I will rely on a third party's presentation of filing data, such as a stock screening program's output, without actually reviewing the filings personally.

Technical analysis is based on the study of historical price, volume, and sentiment data over time. Past performance is no guarantee, and there are no certainties hidden in patterns, charts, indicators, or formulae.

FundaTechnical analysis involves those items which mix elements of Fundamental and Technical analysis, including valuation metrics such as the Price/Book or Price/Earnings ratios. Therefore all the warnings for both Fundamental and Technical analysis apply.

Take responsibility for your own actions. You should consult with an investment professional, in addition to doing your own due diligence, before making any investment decisions.

Copyright © 2005-2008 Bill Rempel

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