Update - U.S. Dollar Index June 2008 74.00 Call Option

By: Patrice Johnson | Mon, May 12, 2008
Print Email

5/11/2008 6:21:21 PM

Hello Everyone.

Welcome to The J.E.D.I. Trader.

To learn more about my Stocks, Options & Options on Futures Trading Service, click here.

INTERMEDIATE TREND OF THE U.S. DOLLAR MARKET: UP

STOCK/OPTION/FUTURE UNDER ANALYSIS: JUNE 2008 74.00 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX CALL OPTION

TICKER SYMBOL: DXM874.00C (Note: For some firms the ticker symbol may be different)

4/26/2008 ENTRY ALERT: Buy one DXM874.00C (June 2008 74.00 U.S. Dollar Index Call Option)

4/26/2008 CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 74.00 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX CALL OPTION:

$.555 ($555.00)

5/4/2008 (WEEK 1) CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 74.00 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX CALL OPTION:

$.680 ($680.00)

5/11/2008 (WEEK 2) CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 74.00 US. DOLLAR INDEX CALL OPTION:

$.430 ($430.00)

OUR BREAK EVEN OPTIONS POINT: $.585

DOLLAR GAIN/(LOSS) ON JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX 74.00 CALL OPTION FOR THE FIRST WEEK ENDING MAY 4, 2008:

$95.00

DOLLAR GAIN/(LOSS) ON JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX 74.00 CALL OPTION FOR THE SECOND WEEK ENDING MAY 11, 2008:

($155.00)

4/26/2008 CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES: $73.030

OUR BREAKEVEN FUTURES POINT: $73.05

5/4/2008 (WEEK 1) CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES: $73.690

5/11/2008 (WEEK 2) CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES: $73.225

DOLLAR GAIN/(LOSS) ON THE JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR FUTURES INDEX (AFTER COMMISSIONS OF $18.50)FOR THE FIRST WEEK ENDING 5/4/2008:

$641.50

DOLLAR GAIN/(LOSS) ON THE JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR FUTURES INDEX (AFTER COMMISSIONS OF $18.50) FOR THE SECOND WEEK ENDING 5/11/2008:

$175.00

EXPIRATION DATE OF OPTIONS CONTRACT: JUNE 6, 2008

EXPIRATION DATE OF FUTURES CONTRACTS: JUNE 16, 2008

PRICE VALUE OF ONE FUTURES POINT: $1000.00

PRICE VALUE OF ONE OPTIONS POINT: $1000.00

This e-mail is to alert you that the intermediate term trend for the June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index Futures is still UP for the second week ending May 11, 2008. The June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index is on the road to recovery and futher gains are possible on this index over the next 6 to 12 months. However, next week we could see yet another pullback in this index particularly if crude oil continues up above $126.00/bbl. Do not be alarmed unless the pullback takes the June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index below it prior support at $72.00. (I doubt this) Watch $72.50 for an early indication that the current uptrend in the U.S. Dollar Index will fail to maintain itself.

This pullback may turn out to be yet another good buying opportunity unless it takes us below $72.50.

These pullbacks are normal considering the events and may be an important part of the process before the U.S. Dollar Index continues back up to its next upside target of $76.00 which may or may not occur before this contract expires on June 6, 2008 for the options contract and June 16, 2008 for the futures contract.

My fellow subscribers,

Please see the daily chart for JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX below DATED FRIDAY, MAY 9, 2008.

The end of the bear trend in the June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index is still in effect as signaled by the breaking of the 45 Degree trend line above (line 1) which is drawn from the February 2008 peak. The breaking of this 45 Degree trend line (line 1 above) confirmed that a new UP TREND is underway. (Note: This will be true as long as prices remain above the support line (above) at $72.00)

An early indication that the uptrend in the U.S. Dollar Index will fail is if prices preceed below the third moving average at $72.50. (This would only be possible, if say, crude oil traded near $200/bbl) Crude Oil is trading around $126/bbl right now. Some analyst believe that it will go much higher and possbile reach $200/bbl.

We cannot classify the JUNE 2008 U.S. Dollar Index to be extremely bullish until prices violate either the third trendline above (LINE 3) or the long term trendline (above) at $75.50.

I believe that both will be violated eventually within the next 6 to 12 months but not without at least one pullback.

I will have another weekly update for the U.S. Dollar Index next Saturday/Sunday. So keep an eye out for my e-mail - UPDATE 3- June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index.

In the meanwhile, I see no reason to exit unless prices on the U.S. Dollar Index takes us below the third moving average line at $72.50 (see chart above).

Good Luck!

And remember, follow THE J.E.D.I. WAY, and the force will be with you.

Best Regards,

 


 

Patrice Johnson

Author: Patrice Johnson

Patrice V. Johnson
The J.E.D.I Way

Patrice V. Johnson

DISCLAIMER:
The information contained in this report and future reports and newsletters contain independent analyses, statements, opinions, beliefs, and strategies that are mine and not those of the company and is made available to anyone interested in my analyses, statements, opinions, beliefs, and strategies made on stocks, options, futures, or options on futures. Information, analyses, statements, options, beliefs, and strategies in this e-mail are for informational purposes only. I do not represent that the information, analyses, statements, opinions, beliefs, and strategies contained in this report or future reports and newsletters are accurate or complete. Internet subscribers and online readers should not rely upon this information for any purpose without seeking the expertise of a professional investment advisor, professional tax consultant and/or broker. The information contained in this report and future reports and newsletters is provided only as general information that may or may not reflect the most current developments; accordingly, information, analyses, statements, opinions, beliefs, and strategies contained in this report and future reports and newsletters is not promised or guaranteed to be correct or complete. The analyses, statements, information, opinions, beliefs, and strategies contained in this report is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any stock, option, future, or option on future. Nor are the statements, analysis, information, opinions, beliefs, and strategies contained in this report or in future reports and newsletters an offer for any stock, option, future, or option on future or solicit the offer of any stock, option, future, or option on future of any company. I will trade securities of the companies on which I report during the term of engagement. Patrice V. Johnson, expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken or not taken based on any or all the contents of this report, and future reports, and newsletters. I assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results. You assume all responsibility for your trading and investment results. You may send me e-mail to Patrice@Stockbarometer.com . However, you should not send confidential or sensitive information via e-mail as the security of the Internet e-mail is uncertain. By sending sensitive or confidential e-mail messages that are not encrypted, you accept the risk of such uncertainty and possible lack of confidentiality over the Internet. I do not necessarily endorse, and is not responsible for, any third-party content that may be accessed through this report, and future reports, and newsletters.

Important Disclosure
Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.

Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.

In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.

For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

Copyright © 2008-2010 Patrice V. Johnson

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com