Only Days Away from the BIG ONE

By: David Nichols | Mon, Jun 16, 2008
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The next few weeks will be an absolutely critical period for financial markets, particularly equities and gold.

In fact, a market fractal pattern with this much potential comes along only a handful of times per decade.

And to top it off, the controlling market fractal patterns in gold and equities are at their most predictable stage.

It's important to understand that this current set-up has been a long time in the making, and that the controlling patterns in gold and equities have been following their expected fractal paths extremely well. I encourage you to scan the archives to check the accuracy of previous fractal forecasts.

In gold, I was very specific that the parabolic growth pattern was likely to continue with a major rally through the first quarter of 2008, to be punctuated by a spike top around the $1,010 - $1,020 energy level near the March 22nd target date. In my daily reports I was specifically discussing this expected late March top at $1,010 as far back as December.

The actual top came in at $1,033 on March 17th.

After that top, the forecast was for a quick collapse down to $850. The actual low was $846, with gold spending only a few moments under $850.

I also recently discussed the controlling fractal pattern in equity markets, and how a pull-back off a touch of SPX 1440 was to be expected, and that the tumble from there could be swift. This touch of 1440 happened on May 19th, and the SPX has been falling ever since.

But the best opportunity of all is coming up right now, most likely within the next few weeks. This is the Big One that you don't want to miss. Catching this move with a leveraged position could actually make a big difference for your portfolio, and will set you on the path for big returns over the next year. Accordingly, in my daily reports I will be discussing specific options recommendations to take advantage of the coming move.

In financial markets it is the contrary market positions that give the immense pay-off, where you stake out a position opposite to the majority, and wait for the perception to shift. And the best contrary opportunities of all are the ones triggered by an overwhelming surge of fear, where if you remain calm and rational you can get nearly instant profits. Soon we're going to get just such a chance.

I have been anticipating this drop off 1440 is because it's a completely normal part of a new bullish pattern. It could even be called an essential part of the process.

It takes a lot of energy to lay the groundwork for a big new trend, and invariably the bulk of the available energy is used up after the initial move higher. So a market has to move back down to stoke up the right sentiment mix for further upside, and a hard, dramatic test is the best way to do it.

There is also a very interesting template for the current fractal pattern that comes from a similar situation back in 1990/1991, also a time of recession fears, credit problems, and a weak housing market.

Each market fractal pattern is unique, but we can gain insight from the way in which a similar situation has resolved in the past. Back in early 1991, following the similar test down that we're seeing right now, the SPX gained an astonishing 20% in one month.

The equivalent move down to 1326 is happening right now, and we're only days away from the dramatic conclusion and "slingshot" rebound. There is also likely to be a temporary overshoot of 1326 to really stretch the rubber band back.

It's important to get mentally-prepared right now for the buying opportunity just ahead.

Gold is also in a combustible pattern, and the moves in gold could be even more exaggerated than equities over this coming period.

Gold has worked itself into a very interesting situation, where a big rebound is also the likeliest outcome for this pattern. Gold tends to give the hardest, most gut-wrenching tests back down to the initial energy levels right before it zooms off to the upside, and we just saw such a brutal test on Tuesday's decline.

It remains to be seen whether gold and equities can rally strongly at the same time, but right now that is what the patterns are suggesting. Of the two patterns, gold is more vulnerable, so we'll have to see how it reacts to the start of a big rebound in equities.

A subscription to the Fractal Gold Report also includes daily updates on the SPX during this critical time in both markets.



David Nichols

Author: David Nichols

David Nichols
Fractal Gold Report

David Nichols

David Nichols publishes the Fractal Gold Report, a daily report covering the gold market using proprietary techniques that go beyond technical and fundamental analysis. The Fractal Gold Report is available by subscription here. Fractal Gold Report Disclosure.

David Nichols is a graduate of Yale University and a leader in the emerging field of fractal market analysis. This pioneering analytical approach studies the markets as chaotic, non-linear systems, addressing the predictability in financial markets. Fractal market analysis discovers the order hidden within the seemingly random chaos of the markets.

David is the editor of the Fractal Market Report and the Fractal Gold Report, daily subscription newsletters written in an easy-to-understand style that cover the markets using his proprietary techniques that go beyond technical and fundamental analysis.

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