ChartWorks: Post Bubble Highs in an Equity Secular Bear Market

By: Bob Hoye | Tue, Jul 8, 2008
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July 3, 2008

Technical observations of

Three of the greatest bull markets of the past century in the US have been followed by quite similar market action, labeled Secular Bear Markets. They are most readily identified when the market is deflated by the CPI or priced in real money, i.e. gold. The Dow Industrials is now at its lowest level since August 1995 when priced in gold. When viewed in Canadian Dollars it is at the second lowest daily closing since January 1998 and in Euros it is at the lows of 2003.

The action following the secular high has followed a set pattern:

Looking ahead we can anticipate resistance at the 20-week exponential moving average (seen in the 1937 example). In both 1937 and 1973 the next important low was seen at weeks 15 & 16 from the outside down reversal. The target weeks for this year become August 29th and September 5th.

One of the other major ingredients in the secular pattern is the dramatic advance in commodity prices.


Crude Oil




1929 to 1938





1966 to 1974





2000 to 2008







Bob Hoye

Author: Bob Hoye

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors

Bob Hoye

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