The Chickens are Returning: A Retrospective On The Stock Market High
- The S&P high was 1576 set on October 11, 2007.
- In late January, 2008 we noted the 55-day plunge in the Nasdaq and observed that, typically, that kind of a move ended outstanding bear markets.
- We used the post-1973 and post-1937 rebounds as our "model".
- It has been a good guide.
- The prospect of a significant decline in equities was covered in our "Global Warning" of October 16, 2007 and "Disappearing Liquidity" a couple of days later when the sub-prime bonds broke down. These are attached along with the instructive cartoon from November 13, 2007.
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- As discussed in Wednesday's Pivot, credit spreads and the yield curve have extended the move towards disorderly conditions likely to be suffered this fall.
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Link to August 22nd 'Bob and Phil Show' on Howestreet.com: http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/goldradio/index.php/mediaplayer/938
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