Labor Day

By: Stock Barometer | Mon, Sep 1, 2008
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9/1/2008 10:24:55 AM

Welcome BiWeekly Subscribers.

We're entering one of the most awesome periods in the market to trade. The September/October period is one you need to pay much attention to. Some of the biggest moves in the market have come out of this period. A subscription to one of our services is meant to give you ideas to profit from these moves. I'm making a pretty big call for the market to move higher here and put forward my argument for that move here. In addition, in my two other services, Stock Options Speculator and Explosive Stock Alert, we're backing up that call with ways you can profit.

The Stock Options Speculator is a weekly service that gives you a call on the market and our top 10 plays to profit from the market positioning. Complete with timing indicators and risk graphs, we break down the best option plays in the market, designed to double your money with sometimes as little as a 3-4% move in the market. Here's this week's top 10 list:

If you look at the column all the way to the right, you'll see the % move in the underlying stock required to cause the option to double in price. Yes, a 3.6% move in FXY (a currency index) will give you a 100% return in the option. Some of these moves can deliver returns of 500% or more. That's the service we provide. Click the link below and sign up to get the full article and all future articles for only $39 a month:

Here is this morning's Daily Stock Barometer:

Labor Day

Holiday trade and Hurricanes. Who's on first?

Stock Barometer Analysis

The barometer remains in Buy Trend Mode, as we're getting a consolidation of readings here at the same level. This is indicative of a potential move - and we'll find out soon what we're going to get.

The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction.

Stock Barometer Cycle Time

Today is day 38 in our Up Cycle. The next Fib number is 55 - if we go up from here, we'll likely see it.

The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.

Potential Cycle Reversal Dates

2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.

As we hit 9/2 (Tuesday), as promised, 10/3is our next date. So whichever way the market moves out of this consolidation, it'll likely do it for a while.

My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.

2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates based on 'other' cycle work were 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.

The following work is based on my spread/momentum indicators for the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.

QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

The good news about this indicator is that it's moved lower enough to support a rally. The bad point is that the longer term indicator is now pointing lower.

The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.

Gold Spread Indicator (AMEX:GLD)

I think the bounce in Gold is done.

To trade Gold, utilize the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. This gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets, as well as to assists us in the entry of positions in our stock trading service.

US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)

We told you to buy the dollar at the bottom and we remain bullish. This is overall positive for the market.

To trade the US Dollar, I'd utilize the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.

Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT)

Bonds selling off should start soon, which is bullish for the market.

To trade Bonds, I recommend Lehman's 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. Note that the direction of bonds can have an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.

OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)

Oils well that ends well and so to has the oil rally run out. Throw in a weaker than expected hurricane, and the market should rally sharply!

To trade OIL, utilize AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction can have an impact on the stock market.

Supporting Secondary Indicator

This indicator suggests the market is ready to bounce.

I monitor over a hundred technical indicators, some that are widely followed and some that are proprietary. These indicators break down the market internals, sentiment and money flow and give us unique insight into the market. I feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook - and to give you an education on what professional traders utilize.

Summary of Daily Outlook

We remain in Buy (Trend) Modelooking for the market to rally here and rally sharply. The rally should move into 10/3.

Normally, going into a holiday you'd have the potential for a rally due to the light volume. However, throw in a hurricane and the market gets a little nervous. But all that should lend itself to a good rally on Tuesday and one that continues for a while.

What does that mean? Well, we're already long in the DSB and looking for the market to rally in this service. In my Stock Options Sepculator service, we'll be recommending our top 10 option plans (CALLS) and giving you risk graphs and showing you how to profit - these plays are all set to double - for more than a 100% return - with as little as a 10% move in the underlying stock. And the trifecta, in our Explosive Stock Service, we'll be giving 3 stock recommendations to profit from this market turn. If you're interested, there are links below to sign up. If you haven't tried the service before, the trial is at no cost.

Look, the market doesn't close too often - even for holidays. So when it does, it's a great time to unwind and clear your mind and refresh yourself for the next round of trades. The September/October period is usually the most awesome period to trade due to osome of the historically wild periods that have occurred and the bullish advances that we've seen off October bottoms. If you can't get excited about the opportunities in front of us, then you shouldn't be in trading:)

If you have any questions or comments, email me at




Stock Barometer

Author: Stock Barometer

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