Bear Ambush

By: Ed Bugos | Thu, Aug 9, 2001
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The Best Defense… is Offense...

Will he, or won't he… and if he does, which he will at some point, by how much? We are talking about Mr. Greenspan and interest rates, if you haven't guessed. If the FOMC (Greenspan's gang) does decide to cut interest rates, it will be their last, and it will not work to change a darn thing. The window is shut, and the Bull Raid is off. It (the inevitable rate cut) will now be a defensive policy, so long as there is bearish momentum.

Real Estate Investment Trusts
Japanese Stocks


August 1 to August 8 LAST CHANGE % CHANGE
Dow Industrials 10294 - 216 - 2.1%
SP500 1184 - 32 - 2.7%
Nasdaq Comp 1966 - 102 - 4.9%
TSE 300 7654 - 87 - 1.1%
Euro Top 100 300 - 5 - 1.7%
FTSE 100 5477 - 68 - 1.2%
Nikkei 12164 + 205 + 1.7%
Best US Stock Sectors
REIT's (Real Estate) 149.3 + 2.5 + 1.7%
XAU Gold Share Index 53.3 + 0.4 + 0.8%
Phili Bank Index 905.5 - 6.5 - 0.7%
S&P Retail Index 896.9 - 8.2 - 0.9%
Forest/Paper Products 338.9 - 4.1 - 1.2%
Put/Call 82 + 24  
US Dollar Index 116.55 0.00 0.0%
Dollar / Euro 112.91 - 0.70 - 0.6%
Dollar / Yen 123.31 - 0.79 - 0.6%
Commodities and Gold Ratios
CRB 200.20 - 1.10 - 0.5%
Crude 27.54 + 0.77 + 2.9%
Gold (vs dollar) 267.90 + 0.50 + 0.2%
Gold/Silver 64.55 + 1.33 + 2.1%
Gold/Oil 9.73 - 0.26 - 2.6%
Gold/CRB 1.34 + 0.01 + 0.8%

Though it might change one thing:

We're looking for Gold, Grain prices, and the Energy complex, to lead the CRB out of its corrective phase, and to confirm the July 10th dollar reversal. A quick move past the 210 handle ought to be enough to rally the bulls - Ed Bugos

We said that twelve days ago. Thank the spirit of Mises that we didn't say Palladium, or something.

Jumpin' Joseph, what a nightmare it has been for the PGM's (platinum / palladium), and also for the other metals, excluding Gold prices, which have been relatively firm but choppy in trade.

October Platinum - 4 months
September Palladium - 4 months

Still, since we are so bullish on the CRB, the accelerating sell off in practically all of the metals prompted a subscriber to ask us just why are Platinum/Palladium going down, and whether we thought that the trend could reverse itself?

Good question, we said, scratching our heads… how the hell should we know? This is the GOLDenbar report… just kidding Mark. As far as Copper, and some of the other industrial metals go, we have already noted the sensitivity of producers to energy costs, and have gone so far as to speculate Phelps Dodge might be forced to shut down marginal production, particularly if copper prices fall while energy prices rise.

I do not see any reason to change that diagnosis. Furthermore, if oil and gas prices aren't about to break out here then nothing is, except gold, which is always possible of course.

Crude Light
September Crude - 6 months
Unleaded Gasoline
September Gasoline - 6 months

This week, in the GIC, the outlook for stock markets, and...


Ed Bugos

Author: Ed Bugos

Edmond J. Bugos

Ed Bugos is a former stockbroker, founder of, one of the original contributing editors to and former editor of the Gold & Options Trader. He continues to publish commentary on market and economic trends; and provides gold, economic and mining research to private clients worldwide.

The editor is not a registered advisory and does not give investment advice. Our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While we believe our statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of our own credible sources. We recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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