Revisiting The Hui (Gold Bugs Index)

By: Joseph Russo | Sat, Oct 18, 2008
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Proof is in the Pudding
Due to our intense focus on the major broad based equity indices, we discontinued coverage of the HUI more than a year ago. In going through some routine chart maintenance, we came across an old long-term chart of the HUI, left fully annotated, but unattended for more than a year.

We were not at all surprised to find that after dusting off this old chart that our forecasting guidance maintained ALL of its anticipatory accuracy without the need to make one single change to our count.

A year and a half ago, we provided readers with the article linked below...


From Navigating the HUI April 23, 2007
From its Cycle Degree print low of 35.31 in November of 2000- measured to its print high in May 2006 at 401.69, the HUI has skyrocketed more than 1037% in 5½ years! In contrast, the Gold price itself has only appreciated 192% in the same peak to trough period. In our view, the HUI's meteoric rise has topped, or remains in progress of terminating a first leg up of Primary dimension. Consolidations to date have yet to correct the 1037% Primary Degree advance in corresponding proportion. We suspect a proportionate correction may either take place later this year, or out as far as 2009 in confluence with a potential eight-year cycle low due in Gold.


CHART and Commentary to right FROM April 23, 2007

The chart from April of 2007 (above) updated with price data through October 18 (below) exemplifies the forecasting power of properly applied Elliott Wave dynamics.

Where is the bottom for the HUI?
The first price floor for the large 2nd wave down resides at the (4) wave of one lesser degree at the 165.71 level. A second price magnet for wave 2 down is 175.27 or a 61.8% retracement of wave 1. If our count continues to maintain alignment with classic Elliott Wave tenets, the floor for Primary Wave 2 may go as low as, but should not exceed the 2000 print low of 35.31.

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Joseph Russo

Author: Joseph Russo

Joseph Russo
Chief Editor and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology

Joseph Russo

Since the dot.com bubble, 911, and the 2002 market crash, Elliott Wave Technology's mission remains the delivery of valuable solutions-based services that empower clients to execute successful trading and investment decisions in all market environments.

Joe Russo is an entrepreneurial publisher and market analyst providing digital online media solutions designed to assist traders and investors in prudently and profitably navigating their exposure to the financial markets.

Since the official launch of his Elliott Wave Technology website in 2005, he has established an outstanding record of accomplishment, including but not limited to, ...

  • In 2005, he elicited a major long-term wealth producing nugget of guidance in suggesting strongly that members give serious consideration to apportioning 10%-20% of their net worth toward the physical acquisition of Gold (@ $400.) and Silver (@ $6.00).

  • In 2006, the (MTA) Market Technicians Association featured his article "Scaling Perceptions amid the Global Equity Boom" in their industry newsletter, "Technically Speaking."

  • On May 6 of 2007, five months prior to the market top in 2007, though still bullish at that time, he publicly warned long-term investors not to be fooled again, in "Bullish Like There's No Tomorrow."

  • On March 10 of 2008, with another 48% of downside remaining to the bottom of the great bear market of 2008-2009, in "V-for Vendetta," using the Wilshire 5000 as proxy, he publicly laid out the case for the depth and amplitude of the unfolding bear market, which marked terminal to a rather nice long-run in equity values.

  • Working extensively with EasyLanguage® programmer George Pruitt in 2010 and 2011, the author of "Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation," he assisted in the development of several proprietary trading systems.

  • On February 11, 2011, he publicly made available his call for a key bottom in the long bond at 117 '3/32. Within a year and half from his call, the long bond rallied in excess of 30% to new all time highs in July of 2012.

  • For the benefit of members and his general readership, he responded to widespread levels of economic and financial uncertainty in the development of Prudent Measures in 2012.

  • He publicly warned of a major top in Apple on October 26, 2012 in the very early stages of a 40% decline from its all time high.

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