Update of Post Coppock Curve Buy Signal Patterns

By: Gerald Hoopes | Sun, Dec 21, 2003
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Here's an update of the 5 charts shown in my October 21, 2003 communication:

First comes a scatter chart in which the CI-NCI Ratio smoothed by six 10-day moving averages is plotted against the NYSE Trin smoothed by six 10-day moving averages. The time span covers the first 142 trading days after the 4/28/78 and 5/30/03 deep monthly DJIA Coppock Curve buy signals.

Second and third come line charts showing each of the above 2 coordinates separately over the 500 trading days before and after the same 2 signal dates.


Fourth comes the latest update of the Monthly DJIA line chart showing the 24 months before and after the same 2 signals.

Fifth comes a line chart of Peter Eliades' CI-NCI Ratio.

The CI-NCI Ratio appears at last to be topping out. Based on its formula alone (it being a 189 day moving average) the overall trend of this indicator should be biased downward for the next 9 months, even if the DJIA rises. This is because the many positive daily A/D readings which occurred since the start of April have begun dropping out of the equation. A down DJIA would only accentuate this effect.

Meanwhile, the Six by Ten CI-NCI Ratio should top out in about a month. In the coming months, that indicatior should show up in the above scatter chart as a move to the left by the current (green) curve. For it to emulate the 1978 (coral) curve by dropping steeply downward while edging left, a down DJIA in early 2004 would no doubt be required to generate enough large Trin readings.


 

Author: Gerald Hoopes

Gerald Hoopes

An explanation of the Coppock Curve can be found at How to Calculate the Coppock Curve. An archive of Geralds comments can be found in the forums at www.longwaves.net.

This analysis is for academic purposes only and must not be construed as investment or trading advice.

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