Falling Bonds, TLTs; Rising Equities, SPYs
Last week we wrote about the Lehman 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) as an indicator of flight to safety, which we believed was starting to wane. On Friday the TLTs, which move inversely to yields, violated an important initial support plateau at 111.45, while equities rallied, the first such signal that some more money is coming out of the safety of ZERO return, seeking "a bit more risk."
For ETF traders, the TLTs could be a potential short, while the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) have a bullish look. Friday's upside reversal in the SPY positions the price structure for the start of a secondary upleg off of the November 21 low, which should propel prices towards a confrontation with the 20-day adaptive moving average, now at 94.46.
Only a break of Friday's low at 82.24 will completely wreck the current very constructive near-term set-up.