Panic Rally?

By: Stock Barometer | Mon, Jan 5, 2009
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1/5/2009 8:18:56 PM

I like the sound of that.


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Stock Barometer Analysis

The barometer remains pointing higher, in Buy Mode.

The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction.


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Stock Barometer Cycle Time

Tuesday will be day 26 in our up cycle.

The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.


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Potential Cycle Reversal Dates

2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.

We remain looking for a peak into 1/20.

My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.

2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.


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The following work is based on my spread/momentum indicators for the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.

QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.


Lynn T's 1-2-3 PLUS Alert
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Gold Spread Indicator (AMEX:GLD)

To trade Gold, utilize the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. This gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets, as well as to assists us in the entry of positions in our stock trading service.


Bill West's Fat Pitch ETF Advisory
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US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)

To trade the US Dollar, I'd utilize the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.


The McMillan Portfolio ($18.95/Month)
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Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT)

To trade Bonds, I recommend Lehman's 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. Note that the direction of bonds can have an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.


Stock Options Speculator
SOS recommends very aggressive stock options plays that target >100% gains.


OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)

To trade OIL, utilize AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction can have an impact on the stock market.


Angelo Campione's Advantage Credit Spreads ($49.95/month)
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Supporting Secondary Indicator

I monitor over a hundred technical indicators, some that are widely followed and some that are proprietary. These indicators break down the market internals, sentiment and money flow and give us unique insight into the market. I feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook - and to give you an education on what professional traders utilize.


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Summary of Daily Outlook

We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the markets to continue higher into 1/20. We do expect weakness in the short term and for the markets to build energy to finish the rally.

Panic Rally? You Bet! Sure the market may not have rallied today, but if you play in the oversold universe, there have been some significant moves. This may by some be considered an oversold bounce - but I think it's something more. The start of a bullish advance that lasts into July.

Normally, if the market is this complacent, it would reverse sharply lower. We're not seeing that. I call that bullish efficiency. A few more days of this and the market will be ripe for a move higher.

Sorry I messed up on the links this weekend. I've added links to other services articles so you could read their titles and gain some insight to what their saying.

There are 7 authors in the Investment Research Group family. All of which have put together some decent years of trading. For example, Mark McMillan put together a 100% return in 2005. Angelo Campione returned over 100% return in 2007. And Patrice V. Johnson returned over 100% in 2008. Granted I put together almost 80% in 2003 and almost 60% in 2004 and over 100% in 2006, but it was from May 2005 to May 2006. That performance was professionally tracked - you can see that performance on our home page.

Point is, no one service is the solution to all your investing problems because we all have bad periods. However, if you were to follow advice from multiple people, then things may be a little easier and definitely more balanced with less risk.

If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.


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Regards,

 


 

Stock Barometer

Author: Stock Barometer

www.stockbarometer.com

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