For The Record: 2008, 1929 and 1873 Bubbles
The establishment promised that nothing could go wrong.
"The truth is that Fed governors, together with their crack staff of Ph.D economists and market analysts, are as close to an economic dream team as we are ever likely to see."
- Gregory Mankiw, Harvard economist and textbook author,
New York Times, December 23, 2007
"So Congress tried to make sure it would never happen again by creating a system of regulations and guarantees that provided a safety net for the financial system."
- Paul Krugman, explaining interventionist measures installed
after the 1929 debacle.
New York Times, March 21, 2008
But it did!
Scott Stantis, Alabama, The Birmingham News
CRASHES PERCENTAGE CHANGES
(DJIA CLOSE)
| High | Initial Low |
Rebound | Final Low |
Full Decline |
|
| 2007 | 14165 | 8176 Oct. 27 | 9625 Nov. 4 | 7552 Nov. 20 | |
| -42% | +17.7% | -21.5% | -47% | ||
| 1929 | 381 | 230 Oct. 29 | 258 Nov. 4 | 199 Nov. 13 | |
| -40% | +12% | -23% | -48% |
| 1873 | 1929 | 2008 | |
| Start of Crash | Early Sept. | Sept. 3 | Aug. 28 |
| • First Selling Concern | Ended Sept. 19 |
Ended Sept. 21 |
No Pause |
| • Heaviest Liquidation | Last Part of Oct. |
Oct. 29 | Oct. 27 |
| • Low Volume Final Panic | Nov. 8 | Nov. 13 | Nov. 20 |
| • Rebound Top | May 1874 | April 17/30 | ? ? |
| • Bear Market Low | Mid 1877 | Mid 1932 | ? ? |
Tweet
Author: Bob Hoye
Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.
Copyright © 2003-2013 Bob Hoye
Circle Us