1/12/2009 10:38:40 PM
Tuesday is one of our key dates that we identified at the beginning of the year.
Stock Barometer Analysis
The barometer remains in Buy Trend Mode. An uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows and as long as that continues, we'll delay any sell signal. But it's getting close.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.
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Stock Barometer Cycle Time
Tuesday is day 32 in our Up Cycle.
The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.
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Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.
The date I reference above isn't a key reversal date, it is a 35/105 day trading cycle. It's suggesting a reversal on Tuesday. How it will work with our 1/20 date is a move up into 1/20.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.
2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
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QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
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Summary of Daily Outlook
We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the short term selling to end Tuesday and a rally into the inauguration.
We have our 35 day trading cycle chart above (a keeper if you want to refer to the dates later). 1/13 is the next date and while I didn't think the markets would pull back this much, the Qs remain in an uptrend - thus we remain long.
I still see an increase in fear that will support the rally. We keep an eye on this fear meter on a 5 day basis and it is approaching an extreme.
If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.
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