Watch this Index Very Closely ...
Some investors are finding things confusing.
For Instance, last Friday the markets closed with the major indexes giving completely different pictures when we looked at how far each were from their November lows.
The DJI was -1.14% below its November low.
At the same time, some were confused because the NASDAQ 100 was 13.12% higher than its November low, while the S&P 500 was only 3.77% higher than its November low. That's almost a 10% differential between the two.
No wonder investors are confused ... what's going on here?
There is a REASON why the NASDAQ 100 is so much higher above its November low, and that is because the index has no Financial Stocks in it.
According to Standard and Poor's, Financial stocks in the S&P 500 account for 13.29% of the index (Dec. 31st. 2008). The DJI index has Citigroup in it ... the same bank that the government is slowly taking over.
What that points out, is that the melt down in financials is a big holdback on market's ability to move higher. So, that means that you should keep a very close eye on the Banking Index (Symbol: $BKX).
As long as it keeps tanking, it will offer no support for the market's upside. To appreciate the size of the melt down on Banking securities, take a look at the chart below. Last week was another down week for the index, and Friday saw it go down below a 1992 support level. Yes, it recovered some during the day on Friday and closed above that resistance ... but that is nothing to write home about.