Are You Ready for This?

By: Joseph Russo | Fri, Mar 6, 2009
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Desperately Seeking Stability

At the worst of the two-year dot.com bust, the NASDAQ registered a 78% peak to trough decline. In the following five-years spanning 2002-2007, though the market came nowhere near reclaiming its former value, it nonetheless posted a 158% five-year trough to peak bull market return.

Casting aside technical's, given the current set of general fundamentals it is plausible that we may be in the midst of a four-year bear market that can feasibly take the NASDAQ down 64% from its 2007 recovery high, and marginally taking out the 2002 low in process. If such a scenario plays out, we could then anticipate arriving at a sustainable base sometime in the 2011 period.

Thereafter, a four-year bull market could rally the index by over 100% trough to peak into the 2015 timeframe. Such an accomplishment would be another substantial bull market recovery even though the market crest may be well below its 2007 peak.

Following a plausible 100% bull market recovery in the future, does your financial advisor have portfolio contingency plans should another five-year 75% bear market then express itself into the 2020 timeframe?

Did you or your advisor have such contingency assurances in place at the peak of dot.com mania, or at the subsequent failure of the 2007 top? If the answer is no to any of these questions, it is time to take full responsibility, pull yourself up by the bootstraps, get on the ball, and stay there.

Assurance and Accountability
At Elliott Wave Technology, we maintain and exercise permanent contingency plans for every possible market outcome. Should the above what-if scenario play out, we are prepared to profit from it. Should the market suddenly skyrocket back up to 5000 and beyond, we have similar contingency plans to join in such a party.

There is simply no excuse for any individual or advisor not to get out of the way, or fail to participate in major bull or bear market events. Unless an advisor or manager is unfairly constrained to a fully invested long-only protocol, benchmark comparisons highlighting losses less than those of the broad market do not provide an acceptable level of accountability for failure to take prudential action.

Bottom line - Be Ready for EVERYTHING
At the end of the day, each individual investor is responsible for his or her own funds, and to whom he or she entrusts to manage those funds. The first order of the day should be "do no harm", meaning that whatever you do, do not lose substantial amounts of money over relevant timeframes. The second order is to grow, protect, and preserve speculative capital in a prudential and consistent manner.

Power to the People
When it comes to the major broad market indices, Elliott Wave Technology is ready for EVERYTHING, are you? Bear in mind, we do not make millions managing funds, but instead are modestly compensated for providing an efficiently organized impartial framework from which self-directed investors can get the job done right by themselves.

Assuring Safe and Profitable Outcomes
In sum, we believe ourselves to be the "Simplicity Experts" in navigation amid broad financial markets. Our well-organized visual approach in chart presentation incorporates a disciplined blend of technical best practices. This presentation framework enables us to translate, organize, and simplify the otherwise complex, and extraordinarily challenging tasks inherent in navigating safely throughout the entire speculative process. The result is our NEAR TERM OUTLOOK, a simple but comprehensive trading publication, which provides clients with prudently actionable speculative guidance amid all time horizons.

Trade the Supercycle IV-Wave
To safely speculate on, and effectively trade the endless array of unfolding subdivisions forthcoming in SC-IV, one may subscribe to our premium trading publication.

The express focus of Elliott Wave Technology's Near Term Outlook is to help active traders anticipate price direction and amplitude of broad market indices over the short, intermediate, and long-term.

Communications '09:
To more effectively convey dynamic trading conditions relevant to our technical publications; we have recently launched complimentary E-briefings for anyone interested in following our work. E-brief dispatches will summarize current market conditions and tactical trading postures across various time horizons and trading strategies. Those interested can obtain free-inclusion from the sign-up block on our homepage.

Trade Better / Invest Smarter...

 


 

Joseph Russo

Author: Joseph Russo

Joseph Russo
Chief Editor and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology

Joseph Russo

Since the dot.com bubble, 911, and the 2002 market crash, Elliott Wave Technology's mission remains the delivery of valuable solutions-based services that empower clients to execute successful trading and investment decisions in all market environments.

Joe Russo is an entrepreneurial publisher and market analyst providing digital online media solutions designed to assist traders and investors in prudently and profitably navigating their exposure to the financial markets.

Since the official launch of his Elliott Wave Technology website in 2005, he has established an outstanding record of accomplishment, including but not limited to, ...

  • In 2005, he elicited a major long-term wealth producing nugget of guidance in suggesting strongly that members give serious consideration to apportioning 10%-20% of their net worth toward the physical acquisition of Gold (@ $400.) and Silver (@ $6.00).

  • In 2006, the (MTA) Market Technicians Association featured his article "Scaling Perceptions amid the Global Equity Boom" in their industry newsletter, "Technically Speaking."

  • On May 6 of 2007, five months prior to the market top in 2007, though still bullish at that time, he publicly warned long-term investors not to be fooled again, in "Bullish Like There's No Tomorrow."

  • On March 10 of 2008, with another 48% of downside remaining to the bottom of the great bear market of 2008-2009, in "V-for Vendetta," using the Wilshire 5000 as proxy, he publicly laid out the case for the depth and amplitude of the unfolding bear market, which marked terminal to a rather nice long-run in equity values.

  • Working extensively with EasyLanguage® programmer George Pruitt in 2010 and 2011, the author of "Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation," he assisted in the development of several proprietary trading systems.

  • On February 11, 2011, he publicly made available his call for a key bottom in the long bond at 117 '3/32. Within a year and half from his call, the long bond rallied in excess of 30% to new all time highs in July of 2012.

  • For the benefit of members and his general readership, he responded to widespread levels of economic and financial uncertainty in the development of Prudent Measures in 2012.

  • He publicly warned of a major top in Apple on October 26, 2012 in the very early stages of a 40% decline from its all time high.

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TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/