Technical Market Report

By: Mike Burk | Sat, Mar 7, 2009
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The good news is:
• The dollar is on a tear, closing at a 2 ½ year high Friday.

Short Term

In the past 6 months all of the major indices have fallen between 40% and 60%. This includes 3 brief, but impressive 20+% rallies following the 2 October lows and the November low.

Here are some historical comparisons for 6 month periods:

High date Low date Amount of decline Comments
8/2008 3/6/2009 47.5% Most recent 6 months of a 56% decline that began 10/2007.
2/2002 7/23/2002 31.8% Last 5mo of a 48% decline that began 3/2000.
5/2001 9/11/2001 26.4%  
7/1998 8/31/1998 19.3%  
7/1990 10/11/1990 19.9%  
8/1987 12/4/1987 33.5% Brief
4/1974 10/1/1974 33.1% Last part of a 2 yr. 48% decline
11/1969 5/26/1970 26.1% Last part of a 1.5 yr 36% decline.
4/1966 10/7/1966 20.8%  
12/1961 6/14/1962 25.2%  
7/1957 10/21/1957 20.3%  
5/1946 11/22/1946 26.6%  
10/1941 4/28/1942 26.8%  
5/1940   25% One of the sharpest 1 mo declines ever.
11/1938 4/10/1939 24.3%  
8/1937 11/22/1937 40.8% Last part of a 45% decline that began in March.
2/1933 7/27/1934 27.2%  
9/1932 2/27/1933 40.6% Followed a 2mo 110% advance from the July 1932 low.
3/1932 6/1/1932 51% Last part of a 2.5 yr 83% decline.
3/1930 6/24/1930 25.3% Followed a 19% advance from the crash low and was followed by a 1 mo 16% advance.
9/29 11/13/1929 44.7% Still the mother of all crashes.

Measured by the SPX, the current 6 month decline has been exceeded only once by the 51% decline going into the 1932 low. All major bear markets have accelerated to the downside in their later stages. Maybe we are nearing the end.

Intermediate term

Last Friday there were 827 new lows on the NYSE and 567 on the NASDAQ, the highest numbers since the November 21 low. Although these numbers were substantially less than the November 21 numbers (1527 NYSE - 1109 NASDAQ) they are high enough to imply, at least a retest (assuming a rally from here).

The chart below covers the past year showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing new lows moves the indicator upward (up is good). Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

The indicator is falling sharply and currently has a value of 389 so it will take less than 389 NYSE new lows to move the indicator upward. There will be no tradable rally until that indicator begins to move upward.

The chart below is similar to the one above except is shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NL calculated from NASDAQ new lows in black.

The value of OTC NL is 314 so it will take less than 314 NASDAQ new lows to turn that indicator upward.

Seasonality

Next week includes the week prior to the 2nd Friday of March during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle.

The tables show the daily return on a percentage basis for the week prior to the 2nd Friday of March during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. OTC data covers the period from 1963 - 2008 and SPX data from 1953 - 2008. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.

Historically next week has been unremarkable, a little weaker during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle than the overall averages.

Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of March
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 -0.37% 0.10% -0.04% 0.17% 0.33% 0.19%
 
1969-1 0.44% 0.42% 0.73% 2.12% -2.07% 1.64%
1973-1 0.37% 1.13% 0.30% -0.14% -0.10% 1.56%
1977-1 0.10% 0.06% -0.50% 0.20% 0.14% 0.00%
1981-1 0.13% -0.55% -0.44% 1.27% 0.75% 1.15%
1985-1 -0.03% 0.01% -0.57% -0.79% -0.29% -1.68%
Avg 0.20% 0.21% -0.09% 0.53% -0.32% 0.53%
 
1989-1 0.56% -0.02% 0.05% -0.18% 0.06% 0.47%
1993-1 0.86% 0.25% 0.57% 0.20% -0.22% 1.67%
1997-1 0.78% -0.39% -0.96% -0.83% -0.02% -1.43%
2001-1 1.19% 2.87% 0.88% -2.48% -5.34% -2.88%
2005-1 0.95% -0.80% -0.59% -0.08% -0.88% -1.40%
Avg 0.87% 0.38% -0.01% -0.67% -1.28% -0.71%
 
OTC summary for Presidential Year 1 1965 - 2005
Avg 0.45% 0.28% -0.05% -0.05% -0.70% -0.06%
Win% 82% 64% 45% 45% 36% 64%
 
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2008
Avg 0.01% 0.28% -0.02% 0.29% -0.12% 0.43%
Win% 48% 58% 61% 65% 50% 70%
 
SPX Presidential Year 1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 -0.04% 0.31% 0.81% 0.04% 0.19% 1.31%
1957-1 0.73% 0.36% 0.25% -0.27% -0.32% 0.76%
1961-1 0.16% -0.91% -0.05% 0.09% -0.03% -0.73%
1965-1 0.03% -0.16% -0.17% 0.42% 0.36% 0.47%
 
1969-1 0.34% 0.33% -0.27% -0.67% -0.40% -0.66%
1973-1 0.36% 1.26% 0.31% -0.19% -0.39% 1.35%
1977-1 0.05% -0.38% -0.76% 0.57% -0.02% -0.54%
1981-1 0.98% -0.50% -0.39% 2.49% -0.06% 2.52%
1985-1 -0.64% 0.09% -0.87% -0.63% -0.23% -2.27%
Avg 0.22% 0.16% -0.40% 0.31% -0.22% 0.08%
 
1989-1 1.25% -0.32% 0.07% -0.05% -0.36% 0.59%
1993-1 1.93% -0.07% 0.42% -0.57% -0.86% 0.86%
1997-1 1.08% -0.28% -0.87% -1.83% 0.46% -1.45%
2001-1 0.59% 1.00% 0.65% 0.23% -2.48% -0.02%
2005-1 0.26% -0.48% -1.02% 0.19% -0.76% -1.81%
Avg 1.02% -0.03% -0.15% -0.41% -0.80% -0.37%
 
SPX summary for Presidential Year 1 1953 - 2005
Avg 0.51% 0.02% -0.14% -0.01% -0.35% 0.03%
Win% 86% 43% 43% 50% 21% 50%
 
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2008
Avg -0.02% 0.16% 0.04% 0.13% -0.09% 0.22%
Win% 55% 55% 54% 60% 44% 59%

Conclusion

The market is as oversold as it has been at any time since June 1932. There have been three 20+% rallies since the early October low and another is long overdue, but, the extreme number of new lows suggest a retest so whatever we get will be a bear market rally.

I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday March 13 than they were on Friday March 6.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends. They can sign up at: http://alphaim.net/signup.html. If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

Gordon Harms produces a Power Point for our local timing group. You can get a copy of that at: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/

Last weeks positive forecast expecting a bounce from extremely oversold conditions was a miss.

Thank you,

 


 

Author: Mike Burk

Mike Burk

Mike Burk independently publishes a weekly newsletter on the stock market from a technical perspective.

Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack (fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com). Historical data is from Barron's and ISI price books. The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

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