3/14/2009 9:53:44 AM
Welcome Traders - This market sure has been a challenge. During markets like this it is nice to have a consistent message - a daily update that doesn't merely regurgitate the useless financial content found on the internet - but one that gives you an independent, honest and subjective view of the markets. I've been writing a daily market update since 2000 and providing traders with my daily stock barometer indicator as well as updates on gold, oil, the Qs, the Dollar and Bonds. Over time, monitoring these indices will give you a better understanding of the markets. Here is this weekend's Daily Stock Barometer. To join us on a daily basis, please sign up with the link below...
Here's what we see off this important signal.
Stock Barometer Analysis
The barometer remains in Buy Mode.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.
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Stock Barometer Cycle Time
Monday will be day 4 in our Up Cycle.
The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.
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Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.
Monday is also a key reversal day. We expect a peak and a retracement into a b-wave.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.
2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
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Use the following spread/momentum indicatorsto assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.
QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.
Gold Spread Indicator (AMEX:GLD)
Want to trade Gold? Use our signals with the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. Gold gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets.
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US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)
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Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT)
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Stock Options Speculator
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OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)
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Supporting Secondary Indicator
We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.
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Summary of Daily Outlook
We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the markets to peak out in the short term on Monday/Tuesday and retrace in a b-wave into Friday, which is options expiration.
Following options expiration I expect the markets to resume their upward move in a measured move off the retracement wave.
In this longer term view of the barometer - charts below, we look at two long term bottoms and how markets reacted. We're near an important bottom, if we haven't seen is as yet.
I can't say I'm all out bullish as yet, as the markets job is to fool as many people as possible. And with the majority in the bearish camp, I tend to lean bullish.
If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.