Silver Market Update
Originally published April 19th, 2009.
Silver has shown technical deterioration over the past week which is increasing the risk of it aborting the bullish Cup & Handle pattern that we had described in the last update. Specifically it closed below the important support at the mid-March hammer low as a result of Friday`s sharp drop. As we can see on the 1-year chart, it has not yet broken below the important support level shown, so it could still recover from here. However, downside risk is now increasing, especially as gold is also testing crucial support and the dollar is looking set to stage another rally. The falling 200-day moving average is another bearish influence. Failure of the support shown would be expected to lead to a plunge, probably back to the $10 area. Traders may therefore wish to set stops accordingly. Holders of large silver stocks have the option of either closing out or reducing positions, or protecting them with options. The long-term outlook remains positive, particularly as the dollar looks set to roll over after a final rally, as described in the Gold Market update.