Key Reversal Date
6/6/2009 8:48:10 AM
Here's what we're looking for.
Stock Barometer Analysis
The barometer has turned lower, issuing a Sell Signal, placing us in Sell Mode.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.
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Stock Barometer Cycle Time
Monday is day 1 in our Down Cycle.
The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.
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Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.
As promised, here are our next two key reversal dates. I'd expect a move sideways to lower into 7/2, then a move to retest the highs on 7/17. What happens after that is going to be an even larger move, so we could be spinning our wheels so to speak of the next month and a half, but that's the market. A much larger move is coming and the markets job is to make you believe it is not.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.
2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
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Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.
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Summary of Daily Outlook
We have a Sell Signal, placing us in Sell Mode.
This is a great time as it appears almost everything (gold, oil, bonds and the dollar) is setting up as they should. As an advisory service author, this is a time to take action, whether it's lightening up somewhere and loading up somewhere else - or outright positioning in a trade.
In addition, I've shown the 2009 seasonality chart that's charted with the 10-20-40 week cycles. This has to be one of my favorite charts, especially when it's coming in so precisely. The period from May to October is normally a net zero - but there are some decent swings - so trading is really the only way to produce net gains.
That's where we come in. If you're new to reading me, I've been doing this for some time. From 2000 to 2004, I advised a large group of traders and that's where I developed the barometer. I've been running this service since 2004 and author 3 primary newsletters - the Daily Stock Barometer, The Explosive Stock Alert & Stock Options Speculator.
Over that time I have also brought other traders and trading styles to you. I believe I have a keen sense for trading talent - and I don't mind giving you other opinions on the market. My focus is actionable content. There's enough useless content out there on the internet - that you don't need any more from us. I mean, I could talk all day about the jobless rate being 9.4%, but you can read about that in the paper.
All you need to know is what and when to buy and sell. That's what we provide.
Clear actionable advice that you can execute in your online brokerage account or read over the phone to your broker - although I don't know a lot of people who still use Brokers.
You can learn something different from each of our traders and I encourage communicating directly with them. The trading community is one of the most open and sharing that you'll ever find. We all learn from each other. Trading is a life experience. You don't all of a sudden become a good trader, you must develop your trading over time. It's a life long learning experience.
And I welcome you to use us to develop your knowledge.
Have a great weekend!
If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.