Is This the Stalling Point of This Rally?
It is courtesy day ... a day where we share one of our charts from the paid subscriber site.
Today's chart is a ten year chart of the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYA) with our C-RSI indicator. (For reference and an explanation of what the C-RSI (zero based Relative Strength) is, please see this link: C-RSI explained.)
A picture is worth a thousand words ...
Some charts are easy to read, this is one of them. For the last decade, there has been a natural barrier for the NYA Index to remain in a Bear Market or progress to a Bull Market. That apparently has been the C-RSI level where we drew a blue horizontal line.
If you will note the 1999 to 2002 time period, you will see that our C-RSI stalled out at that resistance level every time it was reached. It was not until a Bull market started in 2003 that this C-RSI resistance level was finally penetrated to the upside.
And now ... since late 2007, the C-RSI has been below that resistance level.
Where are we now?
Well, we had a great rally so far. In spite of the nice rally, our C-RSI has not been able to rise above this decade old resistance line.
If you look at the chart, you can see that we have recently tried to penetrate that resistance two times. Each time resulted in a failure with a down tick on our C-RSI.
This is the stalling point of this rally ... the point where the oppositional force will face off with the upside force. The point where a battle needs to be fought in order for the market to gain permission to move higher or succumb in defeat.