Uranium and Bonds
"It is easy to be brave when far away from danger." ~ Aesop, 620-560 BC, Greek Fabulist
Uranium has finally traded past its main down trend line and now it needs to break through this long channel formation. Once it achieves this, it will establish a new up trend line and prices should start to rise. As this is a 3 year chart this development is pretty significant but it will be even more significant when it breaks out of the current channel formation. A break past 60 for 9 days in a row should at the very least lead to a test of the 90 ranges. Individuals who have no positions in uranium should use all strong pull backs to open up positions in several of the top performing players in this sector. We calculate performance more in terms of relative strength and not just price action; thus trader should focus on the stocks with the strongest relative strength.
When uranium moves it moves very fast and as the world starts to embrace nuclear power the main threat facing all these nuclear plants are supplies of Uranium. 50% of the demand is satisfied with above the ground supplies that means mines are only able to meet 50% of the total demand and we are not taking in all the new plants that that are schedules to come online on a yearly basis into consideration. If we factor in these new nuclear plants, then current supplies from mines will not even address 50% of the total demand. Once again the world's governments are embracing one side of the equation and completely ignoring the other side. Without guaranteed long term uranium supplies, building new nuclear plants is a waste of time. China knows this and that is why it had signed a plethora of deals with nations all over the world in an attempt to ensure that it will have adequate supplies to meet its future demands. At some point in time there is going to be a wild bidding war for Uranium and that will drive the price of uranium mines into the stratosphere.
In the next 6-12 months, we are looking for bond prices to rise again (interest rates will drop in the process as they trade in the opposite direction to bond prices) and possibly put in new highs but at the very least they will test their recent highs. For this scenario to remain valid bonds should not trade below 112 for more than 3 days in a row, if they do trade below 112 for more than 3 days in a row, the intermediate outcome will most likely change and instead of rallying to new highs bonds will at the most test the lower limit of their old highs. A break past 126 for more than 5 days in a row will be the first sign that bonds are on their way to at least test their old highs. Market update June 9, 2009.
Bonds have so far managed to stay above the critical level of 112. The main resistance point is still 126 but if bonds can trade past 120 for 3 days in a row, it will be an early signal that a new uptrend is in the works. As there is a pretty decent level of resistance at 120, the first attempt will most likely fail and bonds could re test their lows. If they test their lows again and in the process generate strong new buys, it will be a very bullish signal. A break past 120 will also strengthen the pattern as the current pattern though bullish is still weak. One positive development is that when bonds tested their lows in June they appeared to put in what looks like a rare quadruple bottom formation, but more importantly they generated 3 positive divergence signals; all these factors suggest that the momentum is slowly shifting to the upside, but the pattern will only solidify on a break past 120. Investors are getting one last chance to refinance their homes if they cannot sell them and also to close out all bond positions as this will be probably the last time in years, maybe decades that bonds will be trading at such lofty levels. The long term pattern is projecting a very strong correction and a possible crash in the bond markets, with the possibility that interest rates could soar well past the 18%-21% mark. This means that the long term picture for precious metals is very bright indeed; in the short term, one can expect some volatility in this sector. The next few months will probably provide the last window of opportunity to open up positions in the precious metal's sector at a reasonable price; the bargain stage is now in the past.
"Risk -- If one has to jump a stream and knows how wide it is, he will not jump. If he doesn't know how wide it is, he'll jump and six times out of ten he'll make it." ~ Persian Proverbs, Sayings of Persian Origin